The armed clash has disrupted the reopening of the Rafah border crossing.
Israel and Hamas once again found themselves on the brink of renewed hostilities, this time following an attack on Israeli forces in Rafah.
Although the radical Palestinian group denied any involvement in the incident, Israel continues to demand accountability.
Experts who spoke to the Russian daily Izvestia believe that, even if the episode undermines the reconciliation process in Gaza, the peace momentum in the region has not been completely exhausted.
The Rafah attack
According to data released by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the incident occurred on October 17, when a group of militants opened fire on Israeli engineering units. The Israelis described the attack as a serious violation of agreements and retaliated the next day, killing 11 civilians, including eight children. No Hamas casualties were reported.
Political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev highlighted the symbolic importance of Rafah, as the surrounding area has remained highly sensitive since October 7, 2023.
“First, a huge number of people trying to leave Palestine passed through there, and second, the adjacent area concerns Egypt’s interests — a country that has not sided explicitly with either Palestine or Israel in the conflict,” he told Izvestia.
The analyst added that the armed confrontation disrupted the reopening of the Rafah crossing point.
Israel’s hawks
The latest escalation in Gaza has emboldened Israeli hawks, who had been looking for a pretext to renew their campaign against Hamas.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, for example, urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to launch a large-scale offensive.
Netanyahu himself has hardened his rhetoric, ordering “strong action” against terrorist facilities following the Rafah incident — a move that paves the way for new targeted strikes in the area.
Alexey Yurk, a researcher at the Department of Foreign Policy Studies of the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, told Izvestia that Netanyahu has both the motives and the operational capabilities to raise the stakes.
The international context
Meanwhile, regional and external actors, including European powers, remain deeply invested in upholding the ceasefire agreement.
According to Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, these actors will likely try either to downplay the Rafah incident or to ensure it carries no lasting consequences.
Lukyanov explained that Hamas views the ceasefire as an opportunity to pause hostilities for several years, allowing it to regain lost positions and rebuild its forces and resources depleted during the two-year war.
As such, the organization wants the agreement to be implemented, even partially.
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Although the radical Palestinian group denied any involvement in the incident, Israel continues to demand accountability.
Experts who spoke to the Russian daily Izvestia believe that, even if the episode undermines the reconciliation process in Gaza, the peace momentum in the region has not been completely exhausted.
The Rafah attack
According to data released by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the incident occurred on October 17, when a group of militants opened fire on Israeli engineering units. The Israelis described the attack as a serious violation of agreements and retaliated the next day, killing 11 civilians, including eight children. No Hamas casualties were reported.
Political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev highlighted the symbolic importance of Rafah, as the surrounding area has remained highly sensitive since October 7, 2023.
“First, a huge number of people trying to leave Palestine passed through there, and second, the adjacent area concerns Egypt’s interests — a country that has not sided explicitly with either Palestine or Israel in the conflict,” he told Izvestia.
The analyst added that the armed confrontation disrupted the reopening of the Rafah crossing point.
Israel’s hawks
The latest escalation in Gaza has emboldened Israeli hawks, who had been looking for a pretext to renew their campaign against Hamas.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, for example, urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to launch a large-scale offensive.
Netanyahu himself has hardened his rhetoric, ordering “strong action” against terrorist facilities following the Rafah incident — a move that paves the way for new targeted strikes in the area.
Alexey Yurk, a researcher at the Department of Foreign Policy Studies of the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, told Izvestia that Netanyahu has both the motives and the operational capabilities to raise the stakes.
The international context
Meanwhile, regional and external actors, including European powers, remain deeply invested in upholding the ceasefire agreement.
According to Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, these actors will likely try either to downplay the Rafah incident or to ensure it carries no lasting consequences.
Lukyanov explained that Hamas views the ceasefire as an opportunity to pause hostilities for several years, allowing it to regain lost positions and rebuild its forces and resources depleted during the two-year war.
As such, the organization wants the agreement to be implemented, even partially.
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