Japan seems to be losing its compass and taking a dive into the void. Indicative was the statement by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who called the crisis over Taiwan an existential threat to Japan, a stance which means she is ready to take military action against China. As expected, this position caused fury in Beijing.
In fact, Chinese Consul Xue Jiang forgot all notion of diplomatic "language," claiming—referring to the Japanese Prime Minister—that "we will cut off her head." At the same time, a Japanese minister caused an uproar when he essentially recognized Russia's sovereignty over the Kuril Islands, which goes against Tokyo's policy for decades. These statements, if nothing else, are fueling dangerous developments in yet another "hot front" on the planet where the world's great superpowers have interests.
Confusion or horror scenarios?
The new Japanese government seems to be facing problems of orientation—both to the north and to the south. To the south is Taiwan, which for more than half a century Japanese authorities have recognized as Chinese, though not controlled by Beijing.
To the north are the southern Kuril Islands, which belong to Russia, but Tokyo does not recognize its sovereignty, continuing to call them "illegally occupied." However, in recent days, confusion has prevailed in the Japanese cabinet: the Kurils were characterized as "external territory," while promises were made regarding Taiwan that almost amount to military involvement.
Contacts
And to think that not even a week has passed since Sanae Takaichi's meeting with Xi Jinping in South Korea, on the sidelines of the APEC summit. The leaders of the two countries had not met for a long time, and the current talks gave hope for at least a small improvement in bilateral relations. The new Japanese Prime Minister is quite conservative and does not usually explicitly condemn Japanese aggression against China; however, her effort to normalize relations was recognized by Beijing.
Ambiguous messages
During the meeting, Xi stated that "it is important to be partners and not threaten each other." The Chinese announcement about the meeting noted that Takaichi, referring to the Taiwan issue, stressed that Japan will adhere to the position articulated in the 1972 Sino-Japanese joint declaration—namely, the recognition of Taiwan as Chinese territory.
The fact that a day later, again in South Korea, Takaichi not only met with the Taiwan representative participating in the APEC summit but also stated that she "hopes for a deepening of practical cooperation with the island" did not go unnoticed by Beijing. They expressed a protest there, calling on Japan not to interfere in China's internal affairs—something that was not considered unprecedented, however, since Tokyo had never severed its contacts with Taipei. But a few days later, the situation seriously escalated.
Will Japan fight for Taiwan?
Last Friday, in the Japanese parliament, Takaichi was asked if she considers a military crisis around Taiwan—that is, an attempt by Beijing to impose its control on the island by force—an "existential crisis" for Japan. With this term, Japanese legislation describes a threat to the very existence of the country, which gives the government the ability to use military force and participate in joint operations with the US and other allies. Takaichi answered "yes," meaning she essentially declared Japan's readiness to fight for Taiwan. This was considered an exaggeration, and China's reaction was commensurate.
We will cut off her head...
It was not only the communiqué from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, which strongly condemned "the Japanese leadership for the mistaken statements regarding Taiwan, which imply the possibility of military involvement in the Taiwan Strait." Even more indicative was the post by the Consul General of China in Osaka, Xue Jiang, who wrote on the X platform: "If she interferes, we will have to cut off her miserable head—immediately and without hesitation. Are you ready for this?"
Red line for Beijing
The unusual harshness, rare for Chinese diplomats (although this particular consul had shown similar boldness in the past), was not accidental. For China, the Taiwan issue constitutes one of the absolute "red lines" that no one is allowed to violate. Yes, these are verbal attacks against China, but while such statements previously came mainly from American politicians, they now originated from the Prime Minister of Japan.
Hostile personality
When Americans imply they will fight China over Taiwan, Beijing considers it common, albeit annoying; but when Japan does the same, it is completely different. Although the Japanese government lodged a protest with China, calling Xue's words "totally unacceptable," and the consul himself later deleted his post, it is clear that Beijing now considers Takaichi an extremely hostile personality. Her clarifications—that she was referring only to "an extreme level of threat escalation"—changed nothing, especially since she made it clear that she was not withdrawing her words.
The role of the US
China does not intend to retake Taiwan by military means—it seeks peaceful reunification. The provocations surrounding the issue of the "Chinese threat" are useful to the US in order to contain China and pressure their regional allies, primarily Japan, to increase military spending and the cost of hosting US troops. However, Beijing will never declare a complete renunciation of the military option, because that would leave the US with the ability to perpetually blackmail it with the "Taiwan card." If Japan wishes to permanently participate in US political pressure against China through this tactic, then there can be no talk of restoring Sino-Japanese relations.
For Trump's favor
But does Japan need this? Especially now that its relations with Russia have frozen, while the US is asking Tokyo to stop importing Russian natural gas from Sakhalin. Takaichi is not primarily a "pro-American" but a "pro-Japanese" politician—a nationalist, traditionalist, conservative. Her goal is to strengthen Japan's independence, something impossible with the already enormous military-political dependence on the US and simultaneous tension in relations with neighbors. Takaichi does not wish relations with China to reach the level of relations with Russia, but her attempts to gain Trump's favor (among other things, through statements about an "existential crisis") may lead her to a dead end.
New "wrong" statements
Much more so since there is no prospect of restoration—not even dialogue—with Russia. And it is precisely with Russian territory that the second episode of "disorientation" of the new government is connected.
Last Saturday (the day after Takaichi's statements), the Minister of State for Okinawa and Northern Territories Affairs, Hitoshi Kikawada, visited the north of Hokkaido island, reaching the town of Nemuro and Cape Nosappu. There, he described the cape as "the nearest point to a foreign country." And then an uproar broke out, because the island of Shikotan (which Japan calls Kaigara and considers occupied by Russia) is visible from the cape.
The minister later apologized, saying he was simply repeating the words of the local mayor, who called Nemuro "a gateway to other countries," and promised to be more careful in the future.
American hook
Thus, even eighty years after its defeat in the war, Japan cannot free itself from the American hook regarding its security and national interests, refusing to recognize the reality in the north and playing foreign games in the south. On this path, it will never reach independence.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών