Dark clouds are once again gathering over Venezuela—and this time they are coming straight from the United States. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the most modern aircraft carrier in the US fleet, has entered the Caribbean Sea, carrying the largest American military presence in the region since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
The Pentagon announced the start of Operation "Southern Spear," officially against drug cartels, but for many the real focus is Nicolás Maduro—the leader who works closely with Russia, Iran, and Cuba and who does not hesitate to call Donald Trump a "mafioso blackmailer."
Beyond the rhetoric, the geopolitical stake is clear: Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, approximately 303 billion barrels. Controlling them has been a strategic goal for Washington for decades. To the question of whether Trump would dare to launch a military operation, he answers: "I rule nothing out."
Pressure, blackmail, and negotiations
November 24 is considered a critical date: that is when the State Department is expected to designate the so-called "Cartel of the Suns" as a foreign terrorist organization. Washington accuses top Venezuelan government officials of involvement in drug trafficking and has set a $50 million bounty for Maduro himself.
Leaks to CNN suggest that the White House is considering targeted strikes on military facilities and command centers, and even special forces operations. Foreign Minister Marco Rubio, known for his hard stance against socialist regimes in Latin America, is pushing for a more aggressive tactic.
However, Trump is also leaving open the possibility of negotiations. "Peace, yes; war, no," Maduro replied, declaring himself ready for dialogue but not for submission. There were even rumors that in secret contacts, Venezuela proposed to Washington access to oil fields in exchange for de-escalation—but Trump, according to reports, refused, seeking regime change. The veracity of the claims, however, remains unclear.
Venezuela prepares for war
Caracas has put the army on full alert. It is also mobilizing the enormous Bolivarian Militia—which Maduro claims numbers 8 million members—as a key tool for a potential guerrilla war. Television reports show citizens training with weapons, crossing rivers with ropes, and participating in exercises that resemble preparation for a full-scale occupation.
Despite the huge power imbalance—the US has 2.1 million military personnel, tanks, state-of-the-art aircraft, and the world's largest fleet—the unique Venezuelan geography (jungle, mountains, rough terrain) could turn any ground operation into a prolonged, Vietnam-style conflict.
A crucial factor is the country's anti-aircraft defense, with S-300VM, Buk systems, and thousands of Igla-S portable missiles. Caracas claims it can create "no-fly zones" for US aircraft, although their actual effectiveness remains to be proven.
If war breaks out
Analysts such as Nikolai Kostikin (expert at the Office of Military-Political Analysis) consider the scenario of an internal overthrow of Maduro, actively supported by the US, to be probable. Targeted strikes from the sea and air are not ruled out, while a ground invasion could start from Guyana, where the US presence has been reinforced due to ExxonMobil's oil interests in the disputed Essequibo region.
Evgeny Milovanov emphasizes that Washington will seek participation from NATO member countries, even with small missions. However, no ground operation will take place without first neutralizing the Venezuelan air and coastal defenses.
Other analysts, such as Pavel Koshkin (Senior Researcher at the Institute of US and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences), estimate that Russia may offer political and technical support, primarily due to the Russian weapons that Venezuela possesses. However, the main defense will remain internal: guerrilla warfare, attrition, and an attempt to make the country "ungovernable" for an occupying force.
The issue of drugs
Venezuela does not produce coca; it primarily functions as a transit station for shipments from Colombia. The notorious "Cartel of the Suns" is considered by several Western experts to be a journalistic myth. Even a State Department official has stated anonymously that "they will designate an organization as terrorist that does not exist."
Only 10% of the cocaine reaching the US passes through Venezuela; the remaining 90% comes from Colombia and Mexico. New York Times analysts have pointed out that "cutting off" Venezuela from the drug route will not solve the US problem—the real root lies elsewhere.
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