Ukraine, as it is already entering the fourth winter of the conflict with Russia, is experiencing a shocking corruption scandal that threatens to overthrow the government of Volodymyr Zelensky. It is a scandal that is fueling political moves aimed at toppling Zelensky, with former president Petro Poroshenko acting as the main instigator, who is said to have received the green light from the U.S.
At the heart of this scandal is businessman and close associate of Zelensky, Timur Mindich, who is alleged to have coordinated a series of illegal activities in the energy sector in Ukraine, provoking serious accusations of large-scale theft and impunity.
The fact that the scandal involving Mindich has been revealed now is not accidental. The trigger for the eruption came in July, when Zelensky attempted to eliminate the independence of the anti-corruption authorities, such as the National Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP).
Despite pressure from the opposition and Ukraine’s Western allies, Zelensky was forced to abandon these efforts and return to his initial position, ensuring the independence of these two institutions.
However, despite his public statements, behind-the-scenes battles between the various Ukrainian authorities continued to rage, and the “explosions” in the political scene appear to have been only a matter of time.
Concern over the “Mindich tapes”
The fact that Mindich is at the center of this crisis clearly shows that the message being sent is not only directed at the anti-corruption authorities, but at Zelensky himself.
Although at this stage there are no direct accusations against Zelensky, the leaks surrounding the “Mindich tapes” are causing concern. It is said that these tapes include thousands of hours of material and that the release of even a small part of it already reveals connections to the president of Ukraine.
If NABU indeed possesses complete evidence against Zelensky, the political landscape in Ukraine may be radically overturned.
The shadow of Operation Midas - The scandal that exposed the system
The disclosure of recorded conversations and evidence concerning corruption in the energy sector, with Mindich, businessman, co-producer of “Kvartal 95”, and friend of Zelensky, as the central figure, constituted the most serious blow to the presidential staff.
The accusations include:
1) manipulation of Energoatom contracts,
2) possible interventions in ministerial decisions,
3) involvement of top figures in the government, such as the Ministers of Energy and Justice,
4) references to bribery for large-scale construction projects,
5) a connection even with the head of the National Security and Defense Council.
The dimensions of the scandal undermine not only the cohesion of the Sviridenko government, but also the very image of the president as incorruptible, leaving the impression that the area surrounding Zelensky’s presidential office operates as a closed network of influence with opaque rules.
Parliament is being lost - The single-party majority is destabilizing
Information from inside the parliamentary group of “Servant of the People” is revealing. The members of parliament display insecurity, fear, and exhaustion. The risk of the government majority collapsing is visible.
The situation is as follows:
1) dissatisfaction toward the head of the presidential office, Andrey Yermak, is increasing,
2) members of parliament fear they will become targets of the anti-corruption services,
3) the passing of the budget is now considered a “survival test,”
4) top officials such as David Arakhamia and Mykhailo Fedorov appear as potential protagonists in a future internal “overthrow.”
Massive turmoil
The Mindich scandal has already caused massive upheavals at the top of Ukraine’s political hierarchy. The businessman and his associates appear to have fled abroad, while the Ukrainian Parliament proceeded to dismiss two ministers who were allegedly involved in the scandal.
Of particular interest is the case of Rustem Umerov, former Minister of Defense and now Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC). The revelations about his cooperation with Mindich found him traveling abroad and refusing to return to Ukraine.
This scandal has also triggered serious reactions within the government majority of the “Servant of the People” party, which supports Zelensky. Some members of parliament, in cooperation with the opposition, demand the removal of Andrey Yermak, Zelensky’s close associate and head of the presidential office, as well as other officials connected to Mindich.
Poroshenko preparing a coup
The removal of these key figures from power signals the weakening of Zelensky and the political pressures the government is facing. Although the situation looks desperate for Zelensky, the path of the political crisis will depend on the strategy he chooses.
So far, Zelensky seems to be adopting a passive approach: he accepts the blow, attempting to demonstrate his willingness to cooperate with the authorities and to hand over “his people” in order to calm the situation.
However, this inactivity strengthens the appetite of his opponents and opens the way for a political purge in Ukraine.
The goal of the opposition, led by former president Petro Poroshenko, is to eliminate the individuals they consider to be Zelensky’s “protégés,” such as Yermak, and to create a new government of “national unity,” in which representatives of the opposition will also participate.
In this case, Zelensky will lose all real power. His role will be reduced to a decorative and ceremonial one, while critical decisions will be made by a new alliance of political forces.
These developments depend on the dynamics of the political confrontation in Ukraine and the strategy the opposition will adopt regarding the distribution of positions in the “national unity” government.
If Zelensky does not yield to the pressures, then his relations with the West, particularly with Europe and the U.S., which support NABU, will be seriously shaken. Western allies will not tolerate the dismantling of the independence of the anti-corruption institutions and will certainly react strongly if Zelensky attempts to repeat his efforts from July to subjugate NABU.
In conclusion, Poroshenko is planning the overthrow of Zelensky and has received the green light from the U.S. According to Western analysts, Zelensky is “counting his days” in power.
Uprising in Parliament against Zelensky: “Remove Yermak now”
At the same time, the leading figure of the ruling “Servant of the People” party, David Arakhamia, submitted to Zelensky the demand to remove the head of the presidential office, Andrey Yermak. This move is supported by the Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Fedorov and the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, Kirill Budanov, who also requested Yermak’s dismissal.
This situation is complicated by the opposition of high-ranking officials, with MP Alexei Goncharenko warning that if Zelensky refuses to remove Yermak, he will face serious political consequences. He emphasized that in such a case, Parliament will withdraw its support for the president, as it will be impossible to pass the budget or to continue cooperation within the parliamentary coalition.
The conflict concerns the inability of the leadership of “Servant of the People” to find common ground, with Arakhamia seeking the removal of Yermak and other ministers or officials in order to strengthen his own position within the presidential environment.
According to information, Arakhamia has significant influence in Parliament, as he is responsible for organizing votes and managing parliamentary procedures. The removal of Yermak appears to be part of a broader strategy to strengthen his own influence in the government, especially after the “Mindich” scandal opened new prospects for political confrontations and rearrangements.
Critical turning point for Zelensky
Zelensky’s next move will be critical. If he attempts to suppress the opposition and restore his authority through the State Bureau of Investigations (SBR), he may accuse NABU of treason and cooperation with Russia, although this move seems to have been prepared for months.
The uncertainty and political crisis in Ukraine lead to two possible outcomes: either the situation de-escalates with the removal of certain “scapegoats” and the restoration of Zelensky’s authority, or the scandal leads to explosive escalation, possibly resulting in the armed suppression of the opposition or even the overthrow of Zelensky through a coup that would have the blessings of the West.
Whatever the outcome, the unrest in Kyiv will certainly influence the course of the conflict with Russia.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών