Collapse - Chaos in the army, Ukraine at a deadlock - The deserters become a political force

Ukraine is facing a scenario of disaster and collapse.
On the front, there is exhaustion, corruption, and recruiting centers that resemble a zone of terror more than a state structure. In the rear, there is a mass flight, losses that shock even the most level-headed analysts, and a government suffocating between the demands of allies and an army running out of people, time, and endurance. The West is pushing, Kyiv is faltering. The question is "burning" and ultimately has nothing to do with when the war will end. It mainly concerns the price and the condition Ukraine will find itself in the day after.

Chaos

The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine admits: the difficult situation on the frontline and the staffing crisis have led the army to exhaustion. Not seeing prospects of victory, soldiers are increasingly abandoning their units, something that may have political consequences.

"The situation is very difficult, we are truly exhausted by this year of war," the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Andrey Gnatov, told Die Zeit. One of the main problems, he said, is human resources. Commanders need "more infantry."

Recruitment horror

How exactly the units are being filled, Gnatov omitted. Yet, recruitment scandals are multiplying. The Ukrainian Ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, reported that complaints about recruitment centers have doubled in the second half of 2025 compared to the first. "We are constantly being asked to come and record violations," he noted.

Shocking cases

However, center employees officially have no right to check documents, let alone restrict someone's freedom. In a recent interview with Western media, Lubinets cited a "shocking case" as an example. A conscript managed to tell his lawyer that he was being taken to the recruitment office and had agreed to everything. The next day, however, the man was found dead under unclear circumstances, with signs of abuse on his body.

Violence and threats

Recruiters do not hesitate to use violence, even in public. In Kyiv, an employee of a recruitment center in the Desnyanski district fired a pistol. The local recruitment office attributed the incident to "provocation."
Many incidents are also recorded in Odesa. At the Shuvorov center, a grenade exploded inside a "modified" van during a check. One conscript was killed, five were injured. Shortly before, a recruiter threatened passers-by with a pistol right on the street.

Corruption everywhere

There is also corruption. In Cherkassy, until recently, one could avoid being sent to the front by paying $16,000. The "full service" included deletion from a wanted list database, a false registration regarding the care of a disabled person, and removal from military registries. The ring was exposed last week. Recruiters try every way possible, but "the plan is not working out," admitted an employee of the center in Poltava, Andrey Istomin.

In a state of waiting

This is connected to other problems of the Ukrainian army, with desertions being the most characteristic.

The commander of one of the battalions of the 3rd Army Corps (formed based on the 3rd Brigade, which included former "Azov" fighters), Vadym Korzhenko, sounds the alarm: morale is dropping. Among other reasons, due to discussions about a possible end to the conflict. Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers "live with the hope of a ceasefire at the expense of the current situation," he says indignantly. They simply want "to wait until the politicians work things out," and tens of thousands are abandoning positions and returning home.

Deserters as a political force

"We have millions of draft dodgers circulating, hiding, and just watching," claims Roman Kostenko, secretary of the defense committee of the Ukrainian Parliament. According to his data, 80% flee directly from the training centers. Soon, those who have arbitrarily abandoned their posts will be as numerous as the active fighters.

The Prosecutor General's Office has opened over 161,000 cases for arbitrary unit abandonment—four times more than last year. The increase is 16,000 cases per month. In 2024, this rate did not exceed 5,000. Kostenko believes that in the future, deserters will evolve into a strong political force, which "will demand accountability from those fighting now."

Losses reach 1 million

Against the backdrop of military failures and the staffing crisis, Ukrainian politicians are becoming more candid. Ukrainian MP Vadym Ivchenko, in an interview with Ukrainian media, stated that the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2022, in dead and wounded, are approaching one million.

"Over 500,000 dead, about the same number wounded. Why are they dying?" he asked rhetorically, adding that the actual numbers "might be even higher."

Previously, Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, at the Security Council meeting, citing leaked Ukrainian military documents, estimated Kyiv's losses at 1.7 million. "It is understandable why the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are massively abandoning the battlefield," the Russian diplomat noted.

Europeans are pressing

European partners are calling on Zelensky to more actively reinforce the army's staffing, which has been decimated by battles and desertions. The head of the Kyiv regime assures that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently recruiting 30,000 people per month. In the opinion of the allies, this is not enough.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz clearly implies that Ukrainians settled in Germany are more needed in their homeland. And according to Strana.ua, some of those deported are picked up by the recruitment centers almost at the station.

Reduce the conscription age

Another option is to reduce the conscription age. However, as Kostenko notes, politicians are thinking about elections and catering to the electorate. That is why Kyiv is trying not to pressure young people aged 18–22 and draft dodgers (only 5% of cases reach the court).

Some rules, however, have been tightened. The national security and defense committee of the Ukrainian Parliament warned of an impending ban on leaving the country for "violators of military obligation." For now, a 45-day freeze is enough to prevent exit if data has not been updated. However, all this is unlikely to help the Kyiv regime.

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