Game over in Ukraine – Trump succumbed, giving Donbass and Crimea to Putin, Europe and Zelensky excluded from the agreement

US President Donald Trump is set to recognize the occupied regions of Ukraine as Russian territory in order to secure a deal to end the war in Ukraine, according to The Telegraph newspaper.

According to The Telegraph's information, the proposal will be delivered to Russian President Vladimir Putin by US Special Peace Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, during their visit to Moscow.

The US decision to recognize Russia's sovereignty over Crimea and other occupied regions of Ukraine is crucial for achieving an agreement that will end the war in the region, according to information from The Telegraph. Despite the concerns of Ukraine's European allies, US President Donald Trump seems determined to move forward with the recognition of these territories as Russian, as part of his peace proposal, essentially excluding the Europeans from the negotiation table.

Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday that the legal recognition of Crimea, as well as the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as Russian territory, is one of the main issues to be considered in negotiations for Trump's peace plan. Trump has sent his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to deliver this proposal directly to Moscow.

Washington's strategy

Trump's proposal, which violates the traditional US diplomatic line, is expected to proceed despite the concerns expressed by Ukraine's European allies. According to sources, the US does not seem worried about Europe's stance and prefers to move ahead with the plan.

"It is increasingly clear that the Americans are not interested in the position of the Europeans. They say the Europeans can do whatever they want," said a source familiar with the process.

Revisiting the 28 points?

In the new peace plan, which includes 28 points, Washington will de facto recognize Crimea and the two eastern regions of Donbass (Donetsk and Luhansk) as Russian territories, offering a form of legitimization to the areas that Russia has occupied despite international condemnation and Kyiv's opposition. Concurrently, the recognition of the territories controlled by Russia in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia is also proposed, but only after a ceasefire agreement.

Resistance from Kyiv

Kyiv, for its part, remains negative towards any recognition of Russian sovereignty over the occupied territories. Andriy Yermak, head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's office, stated in a recent interview that "no rational person would sign a document today that cedes territory." Furthermore, he noted that Ukraine will not cede territory as long as Zelensky remains president, as the Ukrainian constitutional order prohibits the transfer of territory without prior approval from the people through a referendum. Ukraine understands the severity of the situation and the pressure exerted by the US, but categorically states that unconditional retreat on territorial issues is not negotiable.

European reaction

This proposal has caused intense concern among the Europeans, who have repeatedly stated that they will not support a peace agreement that legitimizes the violent restructuring of borders.

During a summit of the Coalition of the Willing on Wednesday, leaders expressed the clear position that "borders should not be changed by force," underlining the need for a complete and mutually acceptable end to the conflict, based on the principle of respecting territorial integrity.

It is noteworthy that the European counter-proposal to the initial 28-point proposal includes no recognition of Russian sovereignty over the occupied regions of Ukraine, and proposes that territorial issues will be discussed and resolved only after a complete and unconditional ceasefire.

The prospect of an agreement that recognizes Russian sovereignty over the occupied regions has caused alarm in Europe, with many fearing that Washington may impose a non-optimal compromise to end the war in Ukraine, at the expense of the country's territorial integrity. Recent leaks of phone conversations reveal the role of Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, who allegedly guided Russian officials on how to approach the White House, mentioning the need for Ukraine to cede Donetsk.

CNN: Zelensky faces a bad deal or no deal

According to CNN, the Ukrainian President faces the following dilemma: either to have a bad deal or to have no deal.

As reported, the most vital question is whether any deal will truly stop the war. And the President of Ukraine seems to be heading towards yet another unpleasant choice. He must weigh the value of future security guarantees, sealed by the US and Europe, against the real and inevitable damage that ceding Donetsk would inflict on Ukraine, both in its political and military position. It is a bad choice if the agreement holds. There is no choice if, in the long term, as happened in the past, the Kremlin does not abide by the agreement.

The immediate future, however, does not bring better news. Many crises envelop Zelensky's government, most notably the investigation against Yermak for the corruption scandal. Simultaneously, Ukraine's army faces a personnel crisis. Funding from Kyiv's European allies is questionable for the next year, although the European Union recently stated that it believes it can fill the gap. And on the fronts, three separate crises are unfolding: Russia is advancing rapidly in Zaporizhzhia, slowly but steadily in Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, and northwards in Kupyansk. Ukraine cannot handle so many crises with so few soldiers, CNN reports specifically. The issue for Kyiv and its allies is not when they will be able to reverse the course of the war, but whether they will manage to break the Russians first.

"The struggle ahead for Zelensky is fraught with dangers. Russia is better equipped and is making serious advances on the ground. The war for Ukraine is existential—it does not have Moscow's luxury of deciding at some point that it has reached its limits and halting the offensive. But the net effect of the last 10 months, with the slow and confusing diplomacy and the reversal of the situation, has made an unthinkable agreement seem closer to realization. The idea of Ukraine ceding territories to Russia in exchange for peace had been openly rejected by Kyiv and Europe. It has now found its way into the first version of the 28-point Trump peace plan. It has disappeared from the leaked European counter-proposal, but visibly not from Putin's maximum desire. A cycle is certain to repeat now. Trump's special envoy, Witkoff, will likely hear again during his visit to Moscow that Putin will not back down on his demand for Ukraine to concede Donetsk in exchange for peace. Witkoff will convey this to Trump. Zelensky will be pressured again, and a new ultimatum may follow," CNN states in its analysis.

Bloomberg: Yermak's political crash will affect Zelensky and the course of the war

Bloomberg expresses the same assessment, reporting that the investigations conducted by NABU in Yermak's office may undermine Kyiv's positions in the peace negotiations. Specifically, the report speaks of a new level of pressure on Zelensky.

As Bloomberg points out, Yermak's political crash will affect not only Zelensky's fate but also the course of the conflict in Ukraine.

"The prospect of Yermak's (embarrassing) downfall, following searches of his home by anti-corruption authorities, is a significant development, not only for Volodymyr Zelensky's fate but also for the course of the war," the report states, stressing that Zelensky's support for Yermak is fraught with risks, as the corruption scandal in the energy sector approaches the Ukrainian president's immediate circle.

"The investigation represents a new level of internal pressure for Zelensky, who faces the new proposal from the US and Russia for a ceasefire, which includes significant concessions to President Putin. The investigation against Zelensky's representative in relations with allies threatens to distract from diplomatic efforts to end the Russian invasion and undermine Ukraine's positions among its allies," Bloomberg emphasizes, stating that NABU is preparing to indict Yermak as part of the large anti-corruption investigation in the energy sector.

However, Yermak maintained that Zelensky trusts him despite the scandal.

Guardian: Huge consequences for Ukraine and negotiations from the Yermak scandal

The investigation carried out by the Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau investigators at the office of the Head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, will have huge consequences for Ukraine and, possibly, for the peace negotiations.

This is supported by The Guardian in its analysis, which states that Ukrainian President Zelensky will likely oppose Yermak's dismissal.

"Foreign politicians often valued the ability to use Yermak as a direct channel of communication with the President, but some considered him a difficult interlocutor, while representatives of the Trump administration are known to have preferred to deal with Umerov. So far, Zelensky has always resisted calls to dismiss Yermak or at least restrict his powers, but if he is now implicated in a corruption scandal, those calls are likely to intensify. From a political standpoint, dismissing the head of his administration may be the most logical step for Zelensky, but those who know them say their relationship is so close that it's hard to imagine Zelensky doing such a thing," The Guardian argues, citing a former high-ranking official who said that theoretically Zelensky could work without Yermak, but in practice, he cannot imagine it.

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