Syria is once again entering a period of explosive instability, with regional fronts opening simultaneously and the major powers moving on a trajectory of dangerous confrontation. Ankara and Israel appear for the first time in years in a potential military standoff, as Turkey’s moves toward the T4 air base provoke anger in Tel Aviv. At the same time, Damascus is preparing for a large and potentially decisive operation with the goal of crushing the Kurdish SDF in northern and eastern Syria. The complex geopolitical landscape threatens to ignite a generalized flare-up in a region where every move can lead to uncontrollable escalation. Specifically, Turkey has begun actions to deploy forces at the Tiyas military base in Syria, also known as T4, while simultaneously preparing to deploy air defense systems at the site, as reported by Middle East Eye (MEE). According to reports, plans are underway for the reconstruction and expansion of the base, with Hisar air defense systems and advanced drones capable of attacks. “A Hisar-type air defense system will be deployed at T4 to provide air cover to the base,” the source told MEE. The T4 base is expected to provide Turkey with control of the airspace in central Syria and to function as a launching point for military operations. Ankara also intends to build a layered air defense system around the base with short, medium, and long-range capabilities. Sources report that temporary deployment of S-400 air defense systems at T4 or nearby Palmyra is being considered for additional protection during the reconstruction phase. However, such a move would require approval from Russia.
Concerns of Israeli security officials
Meanwhile, Israeli officials expressed concern over the cooperation between the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syria’s Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa. According to Israeli sources who spoke to the Jerusalem Post, discussions regarding the possible establishment of a Turkish military base in Syria have intensified, something Israel considers a potential threat. “If a Turkish air base is established in Syria, it will undermine Israel’s freedom of action,” an Israeli security official said. Israeli officials have held internal discussions in recent weeks regarding the implications of deeper Turkish involvement in Syria. Concerns arose amid reports that Turkey has identified the T-4 base in Syria’s Homs province as a possible preferred deployment site. Its strategic position in central Syria could provide Turkey with operational flexibility across the region, as well as the ability to project stability in an area ravaged by years of conflict. In response, Israeli airstrikes targeted the T-4 and Palmyra bases on 21–22 March, reportedly causing damage to infrastructure such as runways, hangars, and control buildings. A security official stated that the strikes were a clear message that Israel would not tolerate restrictions on its air operations. “We recently targeted the T4 military base to send a message that we will not allow harm to our air freedom,” the source said.
Damascus prepares for battle with the Kurdish forces
At the same time, the deadline for implementing the integration agreement signed between the Islamist Syrian Interim Government and the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in March is approaching its end. No progress has been made and the two sides appear to be heading toward intense confrontation. Despite reports of progress, Al-Monitor revealed in late November that the process has stalled. Aldar Khalil, a senior official of the political wing of the SDF, told the outlet that there had been no communication from the government since October, accusing it of creating an “illusion of a process” ahead of President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s visit to Washington that month. Since then, clashes between government forces and the SDF have been reported regularly across the front in northern and eastern Syria, from Aleppo to Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor. Both the government and its main ally, Turkey, hinted that failure to implement the agreement by the end of the year could lead to military action. Ankara considers the SDF an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which it designates as a terrorist organization. In recent days, an escalation against the SDF has been observed. On 6 December, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan claimed that the SDF “have no intention” of adhering to the March agreement and warned that Ankara would take military action if the group did not comply by the end-of-year deadline. Speaking to Reuters during the Doha Forum, Fidan said that the SDF were trying to avoid the agreement rather than join the government. “They must understand that command and control must come from one point. There cannot be two armies in one country. There can only be one army, one command structure.” The very next day, Syrian Information Minister Hamza Mustafa issued another warning to the SDF, hinting that the United States could abandon the group. In an interview with Anadolu on the first anniversary of the fall of the Assad regime, Mustafa said that the SDF had made “a big mistake with irrational approaches.” He stated that SDF leader Mazloum Abdi had misinterpreted the situation and “missed historical opportunities,” emphasizing that the issue of federalization and political decentralization is completely off the table. There is “no alternative to the 10 March agreement with the SDF,” the minister said, describing the agreement as an “integration solution” presented to Abdi as an exit path. Mustafa warned that Syria would face one of two scenarios if the agreement failed: either a long-term U.S. presence in Syria, which he called impossible, or a withdrawal “in an Afghanistan-type scenario.” On the same day, Abdi reiterated his call for “dialogue” to create a “democratic, decentralized” Syria. “A year ago, Syria entered a new phase with the fall of the previous regime, a defining moment for which we are proud, which put an end to decades of tyranny and divisions,” he wrote on X.
Abdi congratulated “the people of Syria on this anniversary, which affirms the determination of Syrians to build a future based on justice, stability, cooperation, and the protection of the rights of all communities.” Most importantly, he emphasized that “the current phase imposes on everyone a shared national responsibility and requires a comprehensive dialogue that places the interests of Syrians above everything.” Abdi’s comments indicated a clear willingness for dialogue. Nevertheless, both the government and Turkey carried out military escalation that day. The government deployed drone units in Deir ez-Zor, with the deployment receiving high publicity, undoubtedly as a threat toward the SDF. For its part, the Turkish military sent reinforcements to the front with the group in Aleppo. A video of the deployment was also leaked. The Islamists who dominate the government in Syria have so far shown no willingness to share power with anyone else, especially minorities. This is particularly evident in military institutions. One year after its establishment, the army remains fully under the control of the same Islamists who overthrew the Assad regime. Because of this, it is difficult to imagine the integration of the SDF into the government. The latest comments by Fidan and Mustafa make this clear. Despite the SDF being open to dialogue, the government, encouraged by Turkey, appears to prefer a military solution. A large offensive against the group’s territories in northern and eastern Syria could begin immediately after the end of the year. This would be the ideal timing for the government for two reasons. First, the United States is expected to permanently lift all sanctions against Syria before the end of the year, and a battle before that could jeopardize this process. Second, the expiration of the deadline set by the agreement would provide the legal pretext for launching the battle. The SDF have between 70,000 and 100,000 fighters, most of whom are well trained, highly experienced, and well armed. However, many of them are not Kurds but Arabs, even members of tribes that have already declared support for Sharaa and his government. Defections and even betrayals are expected if conflict breaks out. The balance of power leans heavily in favor of the government forces. Nevertheless, the SDF have what is needed to endure, and if they manage simply to prolong the battle, the United States and other Western countries could change their stance, which until now has been very supportive of the government.
In fact, there have been speculations, theories, and predictions from many Syrian analysts that the United States is allowing Turkey to encourage the government against the SDF in order to drag it into a trap that would allow Washington to fully impose its will on Sharaa, especially regarding the transformation of the country into a federal structure. Any setback of the SDF could create more problems for the government, mainly with the Druze in Suwayda, in the southern part of the country, and with the Alawites in the coastal regions.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών