In recent days, Iran hosted an important regional meeting on Afghanistan, attended by delegations from neighboring countries, Iran, Pakistan, China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, as well as Russia.
The government of Afghanistan chose not to participate, citing its own reasons, leaving regional players to shape the discussion on the country’s security and political stability.
In his statements, Iran’s Foreign Minister stressed that stability in Afghanistan is a necessity for regional security, while the joint announcement of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs underlined the importance of strengthening this stability.
The collapse of the Afghan government in August 2021 and the emergence of the new government in Kabul raised concerns about further deterioration of security.
Fears of a second civil war between the Taliban and the former Northern Alliance were widespread, yet the new regime managed to quickly control the country and prevent the escalation of a major internal conflict.
During the 1990s, the intense fighting between the Taliban (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan) and the Northern Alliance was devastating.
The Northern Alliance, which has now reemerged as the National Resistance Front under Ahmad Massoud, has no significant presence today, while it seeks to regain control from the Taliban.
Iran and the Taliban - A relationship that changed
The Iran–Taliban relationship has historically been shaped by periods of tension and cooperation.
In the 1990s, Iran supported the weak and divided Mujahideen government under Burhanuddin Rabbani and Ahmad Shah Massoud, while maintaining close ties with the Shiite communities of Afghanistan.
The Taliban, who claimed to be liberating the country from corruption and chaos, were initially viewed by Iran with deep skepticism.
The murder of Iranian diplomats in the northern province of Balkh led to a serious deterioration in relations.
The American invasion of 2001 triggered a new round of cooperation between Iran and the USA, with Moscow not opposing the establishment of the new government in Kabul.
However, the deterioration of US–Iran relations and the American invasion of Iraq led Iran to consistently support the withdrawal of American troops.
Gradually, Iran also developed contacts with the Taliban, hosting negotiations and participating in diplomatic discussions prior to the American withdrawal.
In 2021, the US withdrawal was characterized by Iran as a military failure for Washington and as an opportunity for long term peace.
Since then, relations between Iran and the Islamic Emirate have remained positive, with gradual development of political and economic cooperation.
At the same time, Iran has limited its support for the National Resistance, maintaining only restricted contacts, as the situation on the ground shows clear dominance of the new government.
Why Iran supports stability in Afghanistan
Iran’s strategy is not ideological, but practical, and is determined by four main factors:
1) The ISIS-Khorasan threat: ISIS appeared in Afghanistan in 2014 and carried out multiple attacks. The new government of 2021 managed to drastically reduce its presence. Iran considers Afghanistan’s firm stance a critical factor for protecting its own security. An unstable Afghanistan and the presence of ISIS would constitute a direct threat to Iran.
2) The refugee issue: Iran hosts millions of Afghan refugees. Renewed instability in Afghanistan could trigger a new wave of refugees, placing economic and social strain on Iran. Efforts to limit migration through barriers and returns are directly linked to the country’s stability.
3) The Afghan market: Afghanistan, due to war and limited development, constitutes an important market for Iran, especially during periods of Western sanctions. In 2024, Iran’s exports to Afghanistan amounted to approximately 3.143 billion dollars, while access to this market constitutes a critical economic lever. An unstable Afghanistan would threaten commercial interests and further burden the economy.
4) The water issue: Shared water resources constitute a sensitive matter. Stability and adherence to agreements by Afghan authorities secure Iran’s interests, preventing a potential energy and water supply crisis.
A practical strategy of high intelligence
From Iran’s perspective, supporting stability in Afghanistan is not a matter of ideology, but of strategic survival.
Stability ensures security against ISIS, limits refugee flows, guarantees access to the Afghan market, and protects water interests.
Maintaining positive relations with the Islamic Emirate, despite the lack of official recognition, constitutes an example of realistic, adaptive policy that prioritizes stability and security over ideological conflicts.
Overall, Iran’s strategy toward Afghanistan underscores that in a region full of conflicts, a realistic approach and cooperation with on the ground authorities can yield benefits not only for national security, but also for the stability of the entire region.
Russia as mediator
Russia played a decisive role in restoring and strengthening Iran–Afghanistan relations, leveraging its experience and influence in Central Asia to promote a more stable and cooperative regional policy.
Moscow, concerned about growing instability in the region and the potential spread of extremist groups such as ISIS-Khorasan, sought to act as a mediator between Tehran and Kabul.
From 2021 onward, Russia hosted and supported multilateral meetings and forums involving Tehran, Kabul, as well as other Central Asian countries, in order to ensure peaceful coexistence and cooperation on critical issues such as border security, counterterrorism, and the management of migration flows.
Russian diplomacy highlighted two main axes: first, the need for political dialogue and gradual rapprochement between Iran and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, and second, the strengthening of economic and trade ties between the two countries.
Through Moscow, Tehran and Kabul managed to overcome old doubts and create a framework of cooperation that responds both to regional challenges and to their national strategic objectives.
Russian intervention was particularly critical in ensuring that the new Afghan government is treated as a practical partner, despite the lack of full international recognition.
Moscow used its position as a regional superpower to reassure Tehran that cooperation with the Taliban would not jeopardize Iran’s interests.
Overall, Russia demonstrated realistic and strategic diplomacy, not only to strengthen Iran–Afghanistan relations, but also to promote broader regional stability, limiting Western influence and preventing the spread of extremist threats that could directly affect both Russia and its regional partners.
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