The war in Ukraine, with the intensity escalating daily, continues to preoccupy the international community, with developments taking on new dimensions as negotiations for resolving the territorial dispute are continuously readjusted.
Professor Greg Simons from the International University of Dhaka in Bangladesh, in an interview with Lenta.ru, emphasizes that Russia, in the event of an escalation of the conflict, will not limit itself only to the recapture of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) from the Ukrainian forces, but will also proceed to the capture of Odessa.
As Simons notes, Russia prefers a solution that will include the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the territories of the DPR and the new regions, thereby extending its pressure on Kyiv.
Russia’s position is clear: if Ukraine insists on war and continues to provoke tension in the Black Sea, then Moscow will be forced to expand the geography of pressure and include other regions as well, such as Odessa.
The main objective is the return of territories to the regions that Russia considers occupied by Ukraine, strengthening its secure territory and its strategic positions in the region.
The issue of Odessa is critical for Russia, as this region constitutes a strategic hub for controlling the Black Sea and the economic routes in the area.
If Ukraine continues to violate agreements and to oppose the Russian claims, Moscow does not rule out further escalation of military attacks and the full capture of the region.
Negotiations and proposals of the USA and Ukraine
On 24 December, Bloomberg reported that the USA and Ukraine are trying to reach a “compromise scenario” for the territorial settlement, but so far have not arrived at a common solution. According to the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine demands the cessation of hostilities along the line of contact, while refusing any territorial concession, such as the withdrawal of troops from Donetsk and the handover of territories to Russia.
In addition, Ukraine opposes the US proposal to turn the DPR into a “free economic zone”, while it demands the departure of Russian forces and a mutual agreement for the joint use of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), a proposal that does not find Kyiv in agreement, as it argues that this idea does not correspond to Ukrainian positions.
The purpose of the US initiative
Simons stresses that the American proposal to transform the DPR into a free economic zone is merely an attempt to salvage the image of the USA on the global stage, as the country wants to avoid appearing defeated and to maintain its political dominance in the region.
This proposal also reveals the economic agenda of the USA in Ukraine, as through this compromise Washington seeks to secure economic benefits for itself, presenting them as a “victory” to the American public.
The American proposal constitutes for Moscow an attempt to keep Ukraine under Western control, while the USA wish to gain politically and economically from the management of these regions, without disrupting their strong presence in the area.
As Simons emphasizes, the American initiative to turn Donetsk into a “free economic zone” aims at the “avoidance of defeat” for the West and the preservation of the geopolitical interests of the USA in Ukraine.
Political expediency
Simons points out that Russia must rely on its own means and proceed with promoting its own solution to the territorial dispute, as the USA, despite the pressure they can exert on Ukraine, are not reliable actors in resolving the conflict.
Russia, as the dominant power in the war, must decide the outcome of the war and determine the terms of the peaceful settlement.
At the same time, Russia can exploit the contradictions and differences of interests that exist between the USA and Ukraine.
The USA, while trying to appear as mediators, do not hide their desire to exploit Ukraine for their own geopolitical and economic interests.
Zelensky and the 20 point peace plan
On 24 December 2025, Zelensky published for the first time the full Ukrainian peace plan, which includes 20 points for the settlement of the war.
However, the points of his plan differ significantly from the initial Russian demands and continue to present major differences regarding the core aspects of the territorial and strategic settlement.
The Ukrainian side rejects any dialogue on the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the DPR, while the peace plan proposes the continued sovereignty of Ukraine over its territories and its accession to the EU. The proposal for the co management of the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia with the USA appears to be a compromise to ensure the security of Ukraine, but Zelensky continues to refuse the participation of Russia in this process.
Zelensky proposes a series of guarantees for the security of Ukraine, its accession to the European Union, and the creation of a “development package” with the participation of the USA and other Western powers.
This approach, however, as Russian political analysts point out, is merely an attempt to delay the peaceful resolution of the conflict and to present Russia as responsible for the failure of the negotiations.
The only option for Ukraine is capitulation
The conflict in Ukraine remains a geopolitical puzzle, with Ukraine and Russia trying to impose their positions on the territorial settlement.
The war is long and difficult, and while Ukraine tries to secure international support, geopolitical actors, especially the USA, continue to guide developments with their own strategic objectives.
Russia, on the other hand, recognizes that a peaceful settlement cannot take place without securing its territorial demands.
Zelensky may insist on an unrealistic position, but with the continuation of military defeat and the increasing pressure from Russia and the USA, he does not appear to have many options to avoid accepting the Russian demands.
Russia’s strategic moves
Russia’s position in the Ukrainian conflict is clear and is confirmed by the strategic moves it has undertaken.
Moscow demands full control of the regions of Donbass and Crimea, and sets Odessa as a strategic objective.
The peaceful resolution of the conflict, although controversial and complex, remains possible only if Ukrainian and American demands retreat and Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over the disputed regions.
Ultimately, this conflict concerns not only military and political imposition, but also control of the Black Sea, the security of Russia, and its survival as a geopolitical superpower.
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