Zelensky is searching for a "victory map" ahead of his imminent meeting with Donald Trump in the US; the potential meeting date is set for December 28.
As Russia categorically rejects the 20-point peace plan released by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as unacceptable, the Russian army continues to maintain the initiative across all front lines. Analysts argue that the entire Ukrainian defense line from Sumy to Zaporizhia is on the verge of collapse, while Russian forces strike the entire coastal zone of Ukraine with particular ferocity, specifically targeting the strategic regions of Mykolaiv and Odessa.
However, information from military experts and bloggers speaks of a "desperation counteroffensive" by the Ukrainians, who have reportedly concentrated massive military forces. Following Russian tactics, they are counterattacking in the Kupyansk direction. Although the picture at the Kupyansk front remains blurred due to conflicting reports, it appears the Ukrainians have managed to place Russian forces in a precarious position. It is evident that Ukraine is losing the war, yet it still possesses enough strength to execute counterattacks in specific directions in an attempt to win the PR war. This may be the context behind news that Volodymyr Zelensky is planning a US visit for December 28; the Ukrainian president is clearly looking for a "map of victories" to show Trump.
Russians level the Ukrainian coast
Russian forces continue to pound the Ukrainian coast with extreme intensity, particularly the Mykolaiv and Odessa regions. In the last 24 hours, the Russians attacked the "Temvod" electrical substation in Mykolaiv. According to the "Iznaka" Telegram channel, following the night attacks, NASA satellites recorded a massive fire in the vicinity of the facility. Reports indicate the substation was targeted by the "Molnya" drone. "According to residents and local authorities, Molnya drones hit the substation at night. The fire lasted several hours, and power outages were recorded as far away as Kherson," the channel notes. On the morning of December 26, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a mass strike across Ukraine.
Odessa as the primary target
Odessa remains a primary Russian objective. Many Russian analysts argue that there can be no victory in Ukraine unless Russia sets foot in Odessa. Experts point out that Putin's strategy explicitly includes the city. Specifically, they mention that the Russian president's order to create buffer zones along the borders brings Odessa closer to Kherson. Others highlight the plan to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea following Ukrainian attacks on Russian tankers. "Speaking of the tanker attacks, Putin called Ukraine's actions piracy. He stated Russia will expand strikes on Ukrainian ports and vessels and, if attacks continue, will consider retaliatory measures against ships from countries aiding Ukraine. The most radical way is to cut Ukraine off from the sea," noted journalist Ruslan Ostashko.
Russian military analyst and retired Colonel Viktor Baranets stated that Putin's strategic warning could turn into a concrete military scenario. According to the expert, the intention to deprive Kyiv of Black Sea access is inevitable. The issue of the Russian Armed Forces seizing Odessa and Mykolaiv is "already in the plan," Baranets added. Over recent weeks, Odessa has faced relentless strikes resulting in extensive power outages and protests by residents against the Kyiv regime.
Scenario for an attack from Transnistria
A scenario circulating among Ukrainian military circles suggests that the Russians might attempt to attack Odessa from Transnistria. Military instructor Anton Cherny argues that the Russians hold a card they haven't used yet. "Yes, Odessa is being destroyed," the instructor admitted, noting that this isn't even the most frightening aspect. He claims Odessa is under threat not only because Russia has intensified port attacks following the tanker incidents, but because they might strike from an unexpected direction. Currently, Odessa faces the Dnieper River and Russian positions, but theoretically, Russian forces could attack from the Transnistria side where they have a military base. From that flank, the city is largely unprotected. "I think they might try to hit us from Transnistria. We have closed the front along the Kherson-Mykolaiv line, but what about Transnistria? There are enemy forces there, and not just a few," the soldier noted. Recently, Russia intensified strikes on Odessa, the launch point for sea drones attacking Russian commercial shipping. Consequently, Odessa faces the same blackouts and water supply issues as other major cities. However, many analysts believe an attack from this side remains difficult to implement at this stage.
Not the time yet
Russia's ground forces are separated from Odessa by the Dnieper River, with Kherson and several other settlements in between. The idea of taking the city from the sea also seems doubtful given the high number of Ukrainian sea drones and the fortified coastline. According to analysts, the only viable option for seizing Odessa is to wait for the complete collapse of Ukrainian defenses, a point that has not yet been reached. Furthermore, Russia's current priority is the full liberation of Donbass. Simultaneously, a realistic scenario involves continuous strikes rather than immediate occupation, aiming to deprive Ukraine of revenue. Attacks on ports have already caused immense damage to Odessa businesses and the state. Insurance costs for ships heading to Odessa's ports are skyrocketing, leading many companies to abandon the route. Thus, the price of war at sea has risen significantly for Ukraine. The economy is a critical factor, especially as Europe exhausts available funds for the Kyiv regime.
Zelensky plans US visit for December 28
According to the Kyiv Post, President Volodymyr Zelensky may travel to the US to meet Donald Trump within the coming days. "Zelensky is expected to travel to Florida soon for very important negotiations at Mar-a-Lago, the likely location for a meeting with the US leadership. If all goes to plan, the visit could take place as early as December 28," the report states. Negotiations for a peaceful resolution will be at the center of the meeting. Zelensky recently presented a 20-point plan, which Russia appears to reject. It is noted that on December 20-21, Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev held talks in the US with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Ahead of these negotiations, Zelensky clearly wants to show Trump that the front has not been decided, which explains the large counteroffensive toward Kupyansk.
Chaos in Kupyansk
The situation in Kupyansk remains one of the most discussed topics on the front. However, reports from analysts and military bloggers suggest that understanding of what is happening in and around the city is diminishing. The picture is confusing due to contradictory reports. The point where most opinions converge is that the Ukrainians have concentrated massive forces and have been conducting a large counteroffensive for days, putting the Russian army in a difficult position. The capture of Kupyansk for Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and President Zelensky is not just a matter of image but literally a matter of life and death.
Contradictory information
On the morning of December 24, Russian war correspondent Anatoly Radov reported a Ukrainian advance toward Kupyansk, describing the situation as "bad." He hinted that forces might be trapped. By that evening, the correspondent claimed the city was lost, calling for the High Command to be informed of the reality without sugar-coating. "Will they report it to the top? Kupyansk is lost. Tell the Supreme Command that the boys are dying. This didn't happen yesterday. The Ukrainian Armed Forces took our tactic—the 'flood.' They flooded Kupyansk for a month. Now we have a bad situation. I wrote to draw attention to this area where everyone is silent, but the boys are fighting there," Radov states. Correspondent Yuri Podolyaka reported that the enemy attacked the eastern side of Kupyansk and captured the dairy factory area, making the situation for troops on the right bank of the Oskol desperate. According to Podolyaka, Russian forces had to abandon a significant part of the city's right bank. "I can hardly imagine how we will hold the rest. The worst part is we might lose the rest of the eastern side too," he emphasized.
The city has not surrendered
Other analysts, such as the "War Correspondents of the Russian Spring" channel, argue that while the situation is difficult, "the city has not been surrendered." It is currently impossible to draw an accurate map of control as urban combat rages. "Reserves and brigades moved from other sectors are launching non-stop attacks. The enemy continues to throw mostly infantry into the battle from various directions. The main axes of attack are from Moskivka, Sobolevka, Sadove, and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy," the channel claims. Analyst Radov argues the Moskivka area remains a "gray zone" controlled by neither side.
A "map" for Zelensky
A Russian soldier from the Kharkiv region and author of the "Without Retouching" channel emphasizes that the situation is indeed tough, as it is everywhere. "There are no easy days in war against global terrorism led by all of Europe. Our warriors are standing firm. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are throwing so many soldiers that the consequences will be severe. Their goal isn't real results, but presentation—to give Zelensky a map to pressure his demands. Even their local successes have come at a huge cost, and they cannot maintain them. We will push them back with double the force," the channel reports.
Gray zone
On December 25, a Wagner veteran and author of the "Condottiero" channel wrote that more than half the city remains under Russian control. Part of Kupyansk is in the gray zone, where the enemy tries to penetrate with small groups, but movements are blocked by artillery and FPV drones. "On the outskirts, everything is covered in fog. Ukrainian attacks are constant, but for example, in Radkova, there is no enemy. I don't understand bloggers saying the city is under Ukrainian control. The Ukrainian Armed Forces created command posts in Grushevka, Nechvolodovka, and Staroverovka, where mercenary headquarters are located. Russian aviation and artillery are working on these areas. The arrival of Ukrainian reserves has almost stopped. The forces we destroy are not being replenished, making the recovery of lost streets easier."
Eight wounded soldiers held off 3,000 fighters
"Regarding Kupyansk, there's nothing to celebrate; the situation is not in our favor. Such a numerical advantage in a specific sector cannot be overturned even by the immense valor of our warriors. Math and geography are stubborn things," reported the "NgP raZVedka" channel on December 25. It noted that the defense of Kupyansk held better than anyone expected, even when reports on December 24 claimed the city had fallen. "The defense was held by everyone who could still fire, even those who couldn't stand. We know of an instance where eight soldiers, all wounded, repelled enemy attacks supported by heavy armor for several hours," the channel highlighted, while maintaining that the enemy is destined for an inevitable end.
Why did this happen?
Military blogger and author of "Notes of a Veteran" cited two main causes: logistics failure and reserves. "The deciding factor was the transfer of our reserves to other locations after the city's liberation. This allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces, using prepared units like the 'CODE 9.2' battalion and the Foreign Legion, to cut supply lines in the city," the blogger noted, adding that reports of Russian encirclement are inaccurate. Late on December 25, the "Border Guard from Hell" channel posted front-line video: "The city has not surrendered. The situation is difficult. The west side is essentially under enemy control. Logistics for our section on the right bank of the Oskol is extremely difficult as the enemy pushed us from several support positions. We are separated by the river. Some units are cut off and supplied via drones. The enemy is attacking from the north, but the city has not been surrendered despite claims."
Ukrainian defense is collapsing everywhere
Beyond Kupyansk, within a single week, Ukrainian defenses are collapsing on almost all other fronts. A breakthrough in the Orekhov front is recorded, spanning over 20 kilometers wide and 8 kilometers deep in several places. In Kostyantynivka, Huliaipole, and the regions of Severodonetsk, Pokrovsk, and Myrnohrad, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in total disarray. Ukrainians are surrounded in the center of Rodynske. Simultaneously, Russian forces are clearing Lukyanivske and consolidating new positions. The Ukrainian Armed Forces claimed to have pushed Russians from Vilcha near Vovchansk, but military correspondents denied this. By December 25, the settlement fell under Russian control—all 36 square kilometers. Furthermore, there is unprecedented Russian activity in the Sumy region along the Kondratovka – Andriyivka – Alekseyevka line. The distance to Sumy is now less than 8 kilometers. Russians are also highly active in the Kharkiv direction, where the situation for Ukrainians is described as "Hell."
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