Not even a week has passed since the sudden US military invasion of Venezuela and the kidnapping of President Maduro, and American President Donald Trump is revealing part of his plan regarding foreign policy in Latin America and beyond. Trump is imposing terms of occupation on Venezuela. On one hand, he orders the new government to sever all ties with its allies—Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba—and on the other, he announces a $2 billion agreement for the export of Venezuelan oil to the US, aimed, among other things, at avoiding the scenario of a second military intervention. There is no doubt that Trump is playing an extremely dangerous game, which, however, aligns perfectly with what the new National Security Strategy describes: that the US is the absolute sovereign in the Western Hemisphere. It is obvious, however, that Trump's strategy is not intended to be limited to the Western Hemisphere, and the question is what the response will be from other major global powers, such as Russia and China, who see their interests being harmed. It is clear that we are heading into uncharted waters, with the consequences appearing explosive.
Cut contacts
In a rather humiliating manner, Trump requested that the new government in Venezuela sever its relationships with traditional allies such as Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba. The American television network ABC, citing White House sources, reports that Trump set conditions for the interim president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, before allowing Venezuela to extract more oil. Specifically, it is reported that: First, the country must expel China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba and sever economic ties with them. Second, Washington demanded Venezuela's exclusive cooperation with America in the field of oil extraction. In fact, it is mentioned that Venezuela should prefer the US when selling heavy crude oil.
$2 billion deal
Venezuela and the US have already initiated a dialogue regarding the export of Venezuelan oil. Donald Trump claimed that an agreement was reached for Venezuela to "hand over" $2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil to the United States. This is a significant negotiation estimated to divert supplies from China while helping Venezuela avoid further decreases in oil production. The deal is a strong sign that the Venezuelan government is responding to Trump's demand to open its oil industry to American companies, as failure to do so would risk further military intervention. Trump has stated that he wants interim President Delcy Rodriguez to give "full access" to the US and private companies within the Venezuelan oil industry.
Ships loaded
Venezuela has millions of barrels of oil loaded onto tankers and in storage tanks, which it has been unable to ship due to the export blockade imposed by Trump since mid-December. The blockade was part of the increasing US pressure on President Maduro's government, which culminated in Maduro's arrest by US forces this weekend. Top Venezuelan officials characterized Maduro's arrest as a kidnapping and accused the US of trying to steal the country's vast oil reserves.
Delivering 30 to 50 million barrels
Venezuela will "deliver" between 30 and 50 million barrels of "sanctioned oil" to the US, Trump stated in a social media post. "This oil will be sold at market price and the money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States, to ensure that it is used for the benefit of the people of Venezuela and the US," Trump added. Venezuelan government officials and the state company PDVSA made no comment. According to Trump, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright is responsible for executing the deal. As he said, the oil will be removed from the ships and sent directly to American ports.
A blow for China
Supplying these trapped quantities of oil to the US may initially require the reallocation of cargoes intended for China, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday. China has been Venezuela's main buyer over the last decade, particularly since the US imposed sanctions on companies involved in the oil trade with Venezuela in 2020. "Trump wants this to happen quickly so he can present it as a major victory," said a source from the oil industry.
The role of Chevron
US crude oil prices fell more than 1.5% following Trump's announcement, with the deal expected to increase the volume of Venezuelan oil exported to the US. The flow of this oil is fully controlled by Chevron (CVX), a major partner of PDVSA. Chevron, which exports between 100,000 and 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Venezuela to the US, is the only company that has shipped oil without interruption from the South American country in recent weeks, despite the blockade.
The revenues
It was not immediately clear whether Venezuela will have access to the supply revenues. The sanctions mean that PDVSA is excluded from the global financial system, its bank accounts are frozen, and it is blocked from executing transactions in US dollars. Venezuela has sold its primary oil, Merey, at approximately $22 below Brent for delivery to Venezuelan ports, giving the deal a value of up to $1.9 billion. Rodriguez, who took over as interim President, is herself under US sanctions imposed in 2018 for undermining democracy.
Strategic petroleum reserve
Venezuelan and US officials discussed possible sales mechanisms this week, including auctions to allow interested American buyers to bid on cargoes, and the issuance of US licenses to PDVSA's business partners, which may lead to supply contracts, two sources told Reuters. These licenses have previously allowed PDVSA partners such as Chevron, India's Reliance (RELI), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and European companies Eni (ENI) and Repsol (REP) to access Venezuelan oil for processing or resale to third parties. This week, some of these companies have begun preparing to receive Venezuelan cargoes again, two separate sources reported. The US and Venezuela also discussed whether Venezuelan oil can be used for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the future, one of the sources mentioned. Trump did not refer to this possibility.
Great news
US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum stated that the increased flow of Venezuelan heavy oil into the Gulf of Mexico will be "great news" for job security, future US gasoline prices, and for Venezuela. PDVSA has already been forced to reduce production due to the embargo, as storage space for the oil is running out. Without a way to export oil soon, it will have to reduce production even further, one of the sources said.
The White House openly threatens Venezuelan politicians
At the same time, the Trump administration is threatening politicians in Venezuela that they will share the same fate as President Maduro. Specifically, it is reported that the US threatened the Venezuelan Interior Minister, Diosdado Cabello. The Americans claim that Cabello, as a supporter of the legitimate president of the Bolivarian Republic, could prevent interim president Delcy Rodríguez from implementing US demands. Sources said that Washington has already warned Cabello about the possibility of a "repetition of Maduro's fate" if he persists. "President Trump says that maximum pressure must be exerted on the remaining forces in Venezuela and their cooperation with the US must be ensured on issues such as stopping illegal immigration, drug trafficking, the restoration of oil infrastructure, and anything else that is right for the people of Venezuela," a White House spokesperson stated.
The message to Rodríguez
After all, it was Trump himself who stated that the situation with Rodríguez could be worse than that with Maduro. "If she does not act correctly, she will pay a very high price," the American leader said. Trump characterized himself as a central figure in the management of Venezuela after Maduro's arrest by American commandos. Responding to a journalist's question about who will play the main role in the government of the republic, he answered with one word: "Me."
What happened at Maduro's first hearing - The judge is 92 years old
A New York court ordered the detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro until March 17, 2026, with US authorities accusing him of drug trafficking, although it remains unclear whether they possess concrete evidence. The trial was presided over by 92-year-old Alvin Hellerstein, who has gained notoriety for his work on the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the Epstein case. Eyewitnesses say they heard the rattling of chains before Maduro entered the courtroom. The Venezuelan leader, dressed in an orange robe, immediately told those gathered that he had been kidnapped. "Sir, I am Nicolas Maduro. I am the President of the Republic of Venezuela and I have been kidnapped here since January 3. They took me from my home in Caracas, Venezuela," he told the judge in Spanish. Hellerstein, however, showed little interest. He interrupted the defendant, stating mid-sentence that there would be "a time and a place to settle matters." Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, are charged with narco-terrorism, conspiracy to import cocaine, and possession of weapons and explosive devices. The couple denied the charges. "I am innocent. I am a decent man," Maduro said, while Flores added that she was also "completely innocent."
Calm, without traces of fear
Overall, Maduro exuded calm and fearlessness, which could not be said for the spectators gathered in the courtroom. One of the men watching the trial suddenly began shouting that the Venezuelan leader would pay for his crimes. He then burst into tears and was led out of the courtroom. "I am the president and a prisoner of war," Maduro shouted. The next hearing will take place on March 17. Until then, Maduro and his wife will remain at a detention center in Brooklyn. It is worth noting that former Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernandez also ended up there in 2022. However, he was not kidnapped, but extradited to the United States by the new authorities of his republic. In New York, Hernandez was sentenced to 45 years in prison on charges of cocaine smuggling and protecting drug traffickers. However, Hernandez was a fan of Trump, who granted him a pardon.
Justice for all
As Bloomberg points out, Maduro's trial will not begin before 2027. In the meantime, the judge will set a preliminary schedule for the exchange of evidence and motions. The defense, meanwhile, will challenge the court's jurisdiction, citing violations of international law, and will raise the issue of the head of state's immunity from prosecution, leading to lengthy preliminary hearings and appeals. Barry Pollack, who previously represented Julian Assange, is representing Maduro in the US court. For now, Maduro and his wife have received permission from the judge to meet with representatives of the Venezuelan consulate. They have also been denied release on bail. Pollack stated that the defense may exercise this right later. He also emphasized that he expects a "long and complex trial" and characterized his client's arrest as a "military kidnapping." It was also revealed that Flores sustained serious injuries during the military operation. It is reported that she has broken ribs and bruises, while journalists noted she had a bandage on her forehead and a bruise under her right eye.
Vague and general charges
Russian political scientist Alexey Chernayev believes it is difficult to predict the outcome of the trial. "The charges brought against Maduro are, on one hand, very general and, on the other, very vague. Specifically, we have not seen evidence of Maduro's personal involvement in drug trafficking, but since the case has reached trial, the prosecution will certainly bring something. It is known that Venezuela's role in drug trafficking is relatively insignificant. Cocaine and other illegal substances are usually shipped to the United States by representatives of other countries. Furthermore, the judge is more of an opponent of Trump. Therefore, the outcome of the trial is difficult to predict," Chernayev stated.
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