Modern military power depends not only on advanced weapon systems and impressive military operations but also on something far more "mundane": the supply chain of raw materials needed for their construction. At the heart of this chain lie the so-called rare earths, a group of metals essential for the production of missiles, fighter jets, radars, and high-tech guidance systems. The conflict in the Middle East and the increased military activity of the United States have highlighted a problem that analysts have been warning about for years: the dependence of the American defense industry on raw materials originating primarily from China.
The "mathematics" of war and missile stockpiles
According to analyses cited by Russian and international media, the intensity of military operations can lead to the rapid consumption of high-tech weapons. Certain systems, such as Tomahawk missiles or THAAD anti-missile systems, are produced in relatively limited numbers each year. This reality creates a difficult mathematical problem: in a long-term war, stockpiles may diminish faster than the industry can replenish them. As analysts point out, the model of Western military production was based for decades on the assumption of short and limited conflicts, not on long-term, high-intensity wars. This means that in the event of a prolonged conflict, even superpowers with massive defense budgets may face problems in the rapid replenishment of their weapon systems.
The global significance of rare earths
The greatest strategic issue, however, is not just missile production, but the materials required to build them. Rare earths are used in almost all modern military systems. A modern F-35 fighter jet requires hundreds of kilograms of such metals for its electronic systems, sensors, and engines. Large warships and nuclear submarines require even greater quantities. The problem for the United States is that China dominates the mining and processing of rare earths, controlling the majority of global production. For decades, the extraction and processing of these materials shifted to Asia, primarily due to lower costs and environmental restrictions in the West. This means that even if the US possesses its own deposits, the full restoration of the industrial chain—from mining to processing—would require years of investment and technological development.
Geopolitical pressure and trade competition
This dependence gives Beijing a significant geopolitical advantage. In times of tension, restrictions on the exports of critical materials can be used as a tool of pressure. This has already happened in the past during trade disputes, while several analysts believe that the US-China technological confrontation could also affect access to these materials. This situation creates a paradox: the most advanced weapon systems in the world depend on raw materials located primarily outside of the West.
The war of resources
In this context, the discussion surrounding the conflict in the Middle East is increasingly linked to a broader competition for energy, raw materials, and industrial power. Markets are already watching the evolution of events with concern. Oil prices have shown sharp fluctuations, while several analysts believe that the long-term stability of the global economy depends not only on the outcome of military conflicts but also on the ability of great powers to secure critical raw materials.
A war decided in industry
Ultimately, many experts agree that modern conflicts are not decided only on the battlefield. They are also decided in the factories, the ports, and the supply chains that support the war industry. Technology, raw materials, and industrial production have become just as important as troops and weapons. In a world where geopolitical confrontation is intensifying, the control of resources may prove to be as decisive as military power.
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