The US appears to be indulging in "midsummer night's dreams," operating under the belief that it is they who are permitting Iranian tankers to traverse the Strait of Hormuz. "The Iranian ships have already set sail and we let that happen to supply the rest of the world," stated US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during an appearance on CNBC. In an attempt to forecast the future, he presented a scenario where the oil price will drop below $80 "in a few months," though he failed to specify exactly how many months that might take. According to Bessent's estimates, the current oil deficit resulting from reduced shipping through Hormuz ranges between 10 and 14 million barrels per day. However, he noted that the Strait is not completely closed and that some Iranian, Indian, and Chinese tankers are passing through as part of a "natural opening" facilitated by the Iranian regime. "We believe there will be a natural opening that the Iranians will leave, and for now we are okay with that. We want the world to be well-supplied," he stated characteristically.
Trump's visit to China
At the same time, Bessent referred to the visit of US President Donald Trump to China, scheduled from March 31 to April 2. According to him, it is not yet clear whether the trip will be postponed and any delays would not be related to Hormuz. However, his statement contradicts Trump, who hinted on Sunday (March 15, 2026) that he could delay the visit if China does not help the US secure the strait.
Admission of failure
In essence, Bessent offered an admission of US failure, as he conceded that all tankers except those from the West are passing through the Strait. "Tankers supplying India have passed through the Strait. The US believes that some Chinese ships are also exiting the Gulf," he noted. A few days ago, CNN revealed that the Pentagon and the National Security Council fatally underestimated Tehran's readiness to cause a global blackout by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. "The national security team of US President Donald Trump did not fully take into account the potential consequences of what some officials have described as the worst-case scenario the administration is now facing," CNN reported, sparking fury at the White House. "Planning to prevent this specific scenario—however impossible it seemed for a long time—has been a cornerstone of US national security policy for decades," said a former US official who served in both Republican and Democratic administrations. "I am stunned." Shipping industry executives regularly submit requests to the US Navy for military escort, all of which have been rejected. In regular briefings to industry representatives in the region, US military officials have repeatedly made it clear that they have not received orders to commence any escort operations and that the risks to American forces remain extremely high, according to two executives familiar with the matter.
Oil prices retreat
Following Bessent's statements, oil prices turned downward, with Brent retreating by 1% to $102.11 (down from $105.80 on Monday morning, March 16), while American crude (WTI) fell 3.59% to $95.17 (down from $98.75 on Monday morning). At the same time, Wall Street futures are moving upward. Specifically, Dow Jones futures rose by 0.94%, Nasdaq by 1.39%, and S&P 500 by 1.15%.
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