British military analyst Alexander Mercouris stated that the Ukrainian military command in Odessa is in a state of panic, partly due to the effects attributed to the latest strike with the Oreshnik system.
The conflict in Ukraine is entering a particularly critical phase, with Russian forces recording advances on multiple fronts and Moscow estimating that Ukrainian defense lines are under increasing pressure. From Kostiantynivka and Chasiv Yar to Kharkiv, battles are intensifying, with the Russian army implementing a highly effective military tactic that yields victories, allowing it to maintain absolute control of the front... as the Ukrainians show signs of collapse, facing enormous difficulties in their supply of not only ammunition but also food. At the same time, the discussion regarding the potential use of the Oreshnik missile system against Odessa is causing terror in Kyiv, as warnings of new escalations add new elements of uncertainty to a war that continues to reshape the balance of power in the wider region.
The US deceived Russia
The picture today is as follows: the Americans have begun to move gradually away from the so-called "spirit of Anchorage," meaning from what presidents Trump and Putin allegedly agreed upon during their meeting in Alaska last August. However, according to Russian military analyst Oleg Shalandin, it seems they achieved what they were aiming for. "Let's be clear: we were deceived. We don't like this, because there were conditions under which there was mutual trust. But we are not naive either," stated Shalandin. According to him, the Americans explain the current situation by citing "our own failures."
However, as he assessed, they do not know what is truly happening on the battlefield. There are losses, but not to an extent that can be characterized as "catastrophic." On the contrary, as he argued, the losses of the Ukrainian side are much greater. "Our massive missile, air, and artillery strikes are yielding results. Proof of this is the massive use of drones. Enemy production facilities, infrastructure, and industrial capabilities have been hit and destroyed," noted the Russian analyst, reminding that Putin has given orders to strengthen anti-aircraft defenses, both in the zone of the "special military operation," as well as in Crimea and other sectors, a fact which—in his view—shows there is no intention of retreating.
Zelensky does not want peace
Kyiv and its Western allies, according to Shalandin, are moving on all levels, while the Ukrainian army is gradually losing significant positions. As a characteristic example, he mentioned the letter sent by Zelensky to the Russian president, which he described as offensive. The issue was also discussed in an interview the Ukrainian president gave to Sky News, where he and the journalist laughed while commenting on the content of the letter. "You haven't read the first version of the letter yet," Zelensky stated, sparking laughter. Shalandin commented: "It offers him no advantage. It just shows who he really is. He does not represent Ukraine as president. The tone of the letter is offensive and shows he does not want peace."
Trump knew it was a bluff
According to him, Zelensky and his allies are following a specific strategy. As an indication, he cited information that Kyiv gave an unofficial signal to slow down the implementation of the natural resources agreement with the US. Russian analyst Kirill Strelnikov argued that "Trump was deceived for the first time in his life by half a trillion dollars because of Russia." According to him, Kyiv is now considering the participation of European investors in the exploitation of natural resources. As the Russian commentator noted: "In the early stages of the deal, Zelensky believed that an excited Trump would immediately send Abrams tanks and Patriot systems to Ukraine. But that didn't happen." "Trump knew very well that Zelensky was bluffing and that Ukraine does not have the rare earth deposits he claimed. He was just playing excellently for the audience," stressed Strelnikov, noting that more and more Western analysts estimate that relations between Trump and Zelensky have deteriorated permanently.
Threats of a Ukrainian attack on Russia with ballistic missiles
As he says, Russia is being pushed to continue military operations. Letters, agreements, and endless discussions about peace, in his view, serve the interests of Zelensky and the so-called "European trio." The next step, according to an article in the Telegraph, is that Zelensky warned Putin that Ukraine might soon strike Russia with a ballistic missile. "During these years of war and massive attacks, we have learned, studied, and produced many different drones and missiles. To date, we do not have ballistic weapons, but we are on the road to acquiring them and are very close," Zelensky reportedly stated.
And... shortages for Patriot
At the same time, the Ukrainian defense analysis company Defense Express reported that the Ukrainian armed forces are facing a serious shortage of missiles for the American Patriot anti-aircraft systems. According to its assessment, this shortage will continue even if the US resumes deliveries. The company's analysts even argue that even if Washington were to grant Ukraine all its available stocks of Patriot missiles, they would remain much smaller than the corresponding Russian stocks.
The myth
Shalandin characterized many of the narratives prevailing in the West as a "long-lasting myth" and noted that, although Western journalists are in Russia, their views are rarely heard. In his view, the West projects the image of a Russia that is supposedly unable to achieve its goals. "We must realistically address what is happening in a country conducting a special military operation. The Western dominant narrative will sooner or later be forced to accept it. This will happen as we approach our Western borders and the territories of former Ukraine. I don't know what they will say then, but I assume they will find some excuse for how Russia finally managed to achieve it," concluded the Russian analyst.
Trembling at Oreshnik
After the Russian missile attack on the strategically important bridge of the Zatoka settlement in the Odessa region, estimates were formulated in the West that Russian forces will intensify operations in the direction of Odessa, possibly with the use of the Oreshnik system and perhaps with a "special charge." Russia is already carrying out strikes that, according to specific estimates, may cause serious problems for Kyiv's supply chain. Large Ukrainian military forces are at risk of being left without sufficient supplies of ammunition. Military analyst and retired first-class captain Vasily Dandykin stated to aif.ru that these strikes have a systematic character and target the most vulnerable point of the opponent.
According to his assessment, the supply lines of the Ukrainian forces on the southern front will be cut, depriving the Ukrainian army of weapons and ammunition transported through Romania. British military analyst Alexander Mercouris, citing sources, stated that the Ukrainian military command in Odessa is in a state of panic, partly due to the effects attributed to the latest strike with the Oreshnik system. "The situation for the Ukrainian army continues to deteriorate. Now they must also worry about the prospect of new strikes," stated Mercouris.
No food and ammunition – Ukrainian collapse
While strikes against supply lines near the front continue, the Ukrainian army is faced with the possibility of "difficult decisions." Fortified positions that were considered impregnable are turning into "cities that require constant support," while drone operators are abandoning their posts. The question is who is winning the battle. In Kostiantynivka, the Ukrainian defense is in a state of collapse and the months-long battle seems to have entered its final phase. Even American maps show that the city has essentially been lost for the Ukrainian regime.
The Russians control Kostiantynivka
Russian units control most of the urban fabric. Inside the city, there are still several pockets where hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers remain surrounded. However, the outcome of the battle has already been decided. The Russian military force "South" reportedly completed a particularly difficult and important mission, capturing the southern tip of the large urban zone Slavyansk–Kramatorsk–Druzhkovka–Kostiantynivka, which stretches for about 50 kilometers in the northwestern part of the Donbass. Western analysts, as well as Russian open-source (OSINT) observers, report that artillery fire and airstrikes have now moved to the northwestern suburbs of the city. The main nodes of the Ukrainian defense have either been destroyed or isolated.
The tactic
Planning played a significant role. Since March, Russian drone units focused on destroying supply lines, leaving the city's garrison with serious shortages. Subsequently, the target became the Ukrainian drone operators. Their positions were located by every available means and bombed with high-caliber FAB bombs. As a result, the Ukrainian drone teams initially abandoned Kostiantynivka and moved to Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, while later they retreated even further north, towards Druzhkivka. The increase in drone flight time resulted in the Ukrainian teams no longer being able to effectively strike Russian assault teams within the urban environment. Combined with the serious shortage of infantry, this reportedly led to the weakening of the Ukrainian defense.
Pressure on the flanks of the city
The situation for the Ukrainian forces is further aggravated by Russian advances north and south of Kostiantynivka. If current trends continue, the attack against Druzhkivka will be conducted not only by the "South" force, but also by the "Center" force, which is approaching the area from the directions of Shakhove and Sofiivka. The article also claims that Ukrainian counterattacks in the Chasiv Yar area resulted in the trapping of additional forces in a pocket between the northern suburbs of Kostiantynivka and Chasiv Yar. In the author's estimation, if the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces Oleksandr Syrskyi does not order new counterattacks, Kostiantynivka, or whatever remains of it, may pass completely under Russian control by the end of June.
What happened to the "impregnable fortress"?
Russian units that advanced from the side of Berestivka managed to enter the city and are continuing their advance towards the Kryvyi Torets River. DPR special forces veteran Alexander Matyushin stated: "We have placed under control all the roads connecting Kostiantynivka with the rest of the urban complex. As a result, efforts to rotate forces and transport ammunition and food to Ukrainian units have become extremely difficult." According to him, the main goal in the immediate future is the linking of the Russian units that entered the city from different directions. Another "impregnable fortified city," which some claimed the Russians would never capture, is gradually turning into a "city without strategic importance for Ukraine," reports Matyushin. On June 9, Ukrainian authorities expanded the mandatory evacuation zone to areas of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, which until today were considered relatively safe.
The air force plays a decisive role
The Russian Air Force is now considered a decisive factor. According to observers, the accuracy of airstrikes has improved significantly. While in the past, FAB bombs with UMPC guidance systems often fell in open areas, now more than 90% of the strikes hit exactly the forest zones and positions where Ukrainian forces are organizing defensive works.
Double attack in the Kharkiv region
Positive developments for the Russian side are also reported in the northern part of the front. On June 8, the Telegram channel "Severny Veter," associated with the "North" force, confirmed that Russian forces are conducting offensive operations in the area of Kozacha Lopan, a large village located three kilometers from the border with the Belgorod region. At the same time, videos were published allegedly showing the advance of Russian assault teams in the center and southeast of Kupiansk, a city which Ukrainian authorities had stated they had completely cleared of Russian presence.
In the second half of May, the "North" forces also attempted to expand their bridgehead in the Vovchansk area. The Russian army continues to advance in sectors where extensive preparation has taken place and the threat of Ukrainian drones has been limited. Estimates about the exhaustion of Russian offensive capabilities are considered exaggerated. However, it is noted that the tactic of gradual infiltration by small infantry groups is slow and requires weeks or even months of preparation. The acceleration of operations could be achieved only through more effective neutralization of Ukrainian drone operators and the appearance on the battlefield of reusable armored vehicles capable of performing deep penetrations of tens or even hundreds of kilometers.
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