The global community is focused on the next day of the constructive and positive negotiations held by the US and Iran in Switzerland, as technical talks have now concluded. The next phase of negotiations will take place at a higher political level under the supervision of the committee coordinating the mediation. American and Iranian officials agreed to form four working groups — for the lifting of sanctions, nuclear issues, reconstruction, and the monitoring and implementation of agreements — each of which will focus on its area of responsibility.
However, Iran has already rushed to demonstrate its position of strength from which it is negotiating: on the one hand, it states that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will never return to what it was before the war, and on the other hand, it denies that it committed to the presence of IAEA inspectors at its nuclear facilities, while simultaneously categorically denying the claims of Trump and Vance that the unfrozen Iranian funds of $12 billion will be directed towards American agricultural products. If nothing else, these are successive refutations of the arguments used by both Trump and Vance.
At the same time, the news is troubling for the American president domestically, especially ahead of the midterm elections this coming November. Americans believe that the war Trump launched against Iran was a complete failure and the deal he reached with the Iranians was bad, as it will not achieve any strategic objective. In fact, in a poll question about whether they believe the Trump administration is proceeding with the deal because it achieved all its goals or because it "wants the conflict to end," two-thirds said the government just wants to close the issue and end the war.
What follows in the negotiations
The Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran and head of the technical negotiating team, Kazem Gharibabadi, announced the conclusion of the technical talks between the four countries (US, Iran, Qatar, Pakistan) and the reaching of an agreement regarding the conduct of the next negotiations. As he said, after the meeting of the High Committee for Monitoring the Implementation of the Islamabad Memorandum, which took place on Sunday and lasted until the early hours of Monday, technical consultations followed to determine the mechanisms for implementing the memorandum and the joint statement issued after the meeting. Gharibabadi stated that the next talks will be held under the supervision of the high-level political committee, with the participation of Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, US Vice President JD Vance, and the Prime Ministers of Pakistan and Qatar.
The 4 working groups, the 2 new mechanisms
At the same time, it was agreed to create four specialized working groups:
• Sanctions Lifting Group
• Nuclear Issues Group
• Reconstruction and Economic Development Group
• Monitoring and Implementation Group The Iranian official also announced the creation of two new coordination mechanisms:
-
Contact Point between the countries participating in the memorandum, with the aim of ensuring the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
-
Conflict Prevention Unit in Lebanon, in which the countries of the memorandum will participate along with Pakistan and Qatar, with the aim of addressing crises and avoiding new escalation. The heads of the technical delegations will oversee the operation of the working groups and the two new mechanisms and will submit reports to the High Committee.
What will happen with oil
Gharibabadi also stated that during the technical talks, the necessary procedures were completed for:
• the issuance of a General License for the sale of Iranian oil,
• the export of petrochemical products and oil derivatives,
• the provision of all relevant banking, insurance, and transport services.
As he mentioned, the American side has already issued the relevant general license, which was also published on the website of the OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) of the US Department of the Treasury.
$12 billion unfrozen
At the same time, it was agreed to implement the signed arrangements for the unfreezing of $12 billion of frozen Iranian assets, which are divided into two separate installments of $6 billion. This statement suggests that the talks are now moving from the technical to the political level, with the most critical issues — such as sanctions, the nuclear program, economic cooperation, and implementation mechanisms — now being examined by senior government officials of the involved parties.
Iran denies purchases of agricultural products from the US
Iran is already challenging the version presented by Trump and Vance regarding the deal for the frozen assets. The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Abdolnasser Hemmati, stated that the signed documents do not oblige Tehran to use the unfrozen funds to purchase American agricultural products. As he mentioned, if American food is cheaper and of better quality, Iran may purchase it. However, the Iranian side argues that it can also use the second installment of the unfrozen funds to purchase any goods not subject to sanctions. This difference is significant, as Trump and Vance have presented the deal as a development that will direct money back to American farmers through purchases of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Iran is now putting forward the opposite argument: that the money belongs to Iran itself and that Tehran will allocate it based on price, quality, and the restrictions resulting from the sanctions regime.
No commitment for inspectors at nuclear facilities
Also, Iran rejected recent American claims that Tehran agreed to inspections of its nuclear facilities, describing the relevant reports as inaccurate and detrimental to the negotiation process. Iranian officials argue that during the talks in Switzerland, no new commitments were made regarding the nuclear issue and insist that the nuclear file was not a subject of discussion. Tehran also reiterated its opposition to any framework of inspections at this stage, arguing that such measures are not included in the current memorandum of understanding and could only be a subject of future negotiations.
Trump: A nuclear weapon is a greater threat than a global recession
In a post, Trump estimated that Iran will agree to extensive inspections aimed at ensuring its nuclear program does not have a military dimension. "It is widely known that Iran will agree to significant arms inspections, so as to ensure long-term nuclear integrity," wrote the American president on the Truth Social platform. Trump argued that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is more important than the potential economic consequences of a prolonged military confrontation, even if these include the risk of a global economic recession. In fact, he reiterated that the prospect of military action remains open if Iran does not comply with the terms of the deal. "If Iran does not keep its deal or if it does not behave correctly, I will do what I have to do," said Trump.
The nuclear issue is the main point of interest for the US
The nuclear program of Iran is the central issue for the American side. This is also the reason why JD Vance was in Switzerland during the first phase of the negotiations. The American government considers this to be the most important item on the agenda. Trump has repeatedly stated that Iran cannot acquire a nuclear weapon and the goal of the talks was to set the framework for managing the nuclear file. Upon his departure from Switzerland, JD Vance appeared convinced that the Iranian side had made significant concessions. As he stated, Iran agreed to allow the entry of nuclear inspectors for the first time in a long time, while adding that the US "will strengthen the inspection regime to ensure that Iran will never be able to acquire a nuclear weapon."
Ghalibaf (Speaker of the Iranian Parliament): Hormuz will never return to the pre-war situation
A clear message that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the situation that existed before the war was sent by the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and member of the Iranian negotiating delegation, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. "Everyone must know that the management of the Strait will never return to the situation that existed before the war. We agreed to create coordination mechanisms in the Strait of Hormuz, including a direct line of communication (hotline) and a center to which one can appeal whenever any ambiguity or disagreement arises," underlined Ghalibaf.
Positive talks
Furthermore, he emphasized that "this trip had positive results, especially regarding the discussion on the Strait, talks on Lebanon, the issue of oil waivers, and the matter of unfreezing frozen funds, which is one of the progress steps we are taking. Certainly, we believe that we are still at the beginning of this process and must continue our efforts." The Iranian official confirmed the release of two installments of $6 billion from frozen Iranian funds and stressed that sanctions on Iran's oil sector remain in effect, as a final agreement has not yet been reached. "Therefore, we need waivers so that we can sell our oil and conduct our banking activities... These waivers have now been secured and the relevant agreements have been signed," said Ghalibaf, who regarding Lebanon argued that "we agreed to create a coordination center there." According to him, the center will handle any disputes "in order to prevent a return to war, to allow citizens to return to their normal lives, to ensure withdrawal from areas under Israeli occupation, and to respect the national sovereignty of Lebanon."
Regarding Trump's threats
Ghalibaf also referred to the threats issued on Sunday, 6/21, by US President Donald Trump, while negotiations were underway in Switzerland. "During the discussions, I was informed that Trump had made threatening statements against our president, the negotiating team, and had left open the possibility of attacks against our territory. I told Vance: 'We are here in negotiations and, according to the signed memorandum of understanding, the first paragraph stipulates that there should be no threats or coercion. And yet, today your president made threats. You must understand that we never negotiate under threats or pressure.' We terminated the negotiations, left the meeting, and did not return. The American side attempted to organize a new meeting through mediators, but we refused. Subsequently, the mediators from Qatar and Pakistan came to us, and we told them that we would talk with them, but not directly with the American side. The result of these 80-minute discussions and negotiations was the announcement later released by the Pakistani and Qatari sides."
The power of weapons
"Military forces achieved the victories. Now the negotiation is coming to leverage and promote them. If problems arise, we can either respond with missiles or resolve them through negotiations. I am not a diplomat; I am a fighter. Military power and diplomacy work complementarily. We are not going to abandon the effort until we achieve the final result," argued Ghalibaf, noting that Tehran still does not trust Washington. "We were skeptical toward the Americans, we still are, and we should remain skeptical in the future," said Ghalibaf. According to him, this is why a special provision was included in the memorandum of understanding so that certain American commitments would be implemented immediately after the signing, before the talks progressed to other issues.
Fire from Democrats
Democrats on the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs accused Trump of granting sanctions relief to Iran before progress was made on key issues of the negotiations, including Tehran's nuclear program. In a post, they argued that the actions of the Trump administration are "inconsistent with its own rhetoric regarding how it would approach any deal with Iran." "Although ending this illegal war is preferable to disastrously doubling down on involvement, the government's steps are not in line with what it itself argued about how it would negotiate a deal," the statement says. "Trump officials repeatedly stated that the lifting of sanctions would be linked to addressing Iran's nuclear program and the terrorist organizations it supports. Neither issue has been resolved, yet the regime received extensive sanctions relief that it had been dreaming of for decades," the Democrats state. On Monday, the US Treasury Department granted a waiver from sanctions on Iranian oil and fuel exports until August 21. The decision allows Iran to sell oil in US dollars for the first time in decades.
Disaster
Americans want the war to end – not because they like the deal. The first major poll conducted after the signing of the memorandum of understanding between the Trump administration and Iran includes a finding that at first glance looks positive for Trump: Americans overwhelmingly agree that he should end the war instead of seeking more concessions. But this is not happening because they approve of the deal. It is happening because they consider the war a failure and just want it to end. A poll by CBS News and YouGov shows that, even now that Americans see for the first time — however faintly — the end of the conflict, their view of the war has not improved in the slightest.
Bad deal
The poll shows that 78% of Americans prefer the war to end now, while just 22% wish it to continue "until Iran concedes more." On Sunday, at least one political advisor to Trump was celebrating this finding, arguing that it shows that the American people are on the side of Trump and Vice President JD Vance regarding the deal with Iran. However, the rest of the poll data makes it absolutely clear that this is not true. When respondents were asked to evaluate the deal, just 22% stated it is more beneficial for the United States than for Iran, while significantly more — 37% — responded that it favors Iran more. The remaining 41% estimated that it is roughly balanced.
Not even the Republicans
It is noteworthy that only 39% of Republicans consider the deal to be better for the US. In other words, just about four in ten voters from Trump's own party believe that his administration achieved a victory in the negotiations. At the same time, Americans believe by a margin of 45% to 29% that the war was not successful from a strategic point of view.
Accepting a strategic defeat
This last finding perhaps underestimates the magnitude of the strategic failure that Americans see. Nothing captures this better than the responses regarding Iran's nuclear program — Trump's most important goal. Although Trump has repeatedly stated that his goal was to permanently stop Iran's nuclear program, the CBS poll shows that 69% of Americans and even 45% of Republicans believe that the deal, if finalized and leads to the end of the war, will not achieve this. The new CBS poll also shows that:
• 68% believe that the deal, if completed, will not prevent Iran from threatening other countries. Nearly half of Republicans (48%) agree.
• 79% consider that it has not made the Iranian leadership friendlier toward the US.
• 74% believe that it has not made the Iranian people safer or freer, although this was one of the goals Trump had cited earlier this year.
Counterproductive war
A consistent and striking element of the polls on the war with Iran is that citizens do not just see it as a failure, but as something that worsened the problems. And this perception remains strong. Trump argues that the war militarily destroyed Iran and dismantled its nuclear program. However, just 37% of Americans consider that Iran is now weaker than before the start of the war. More than six in ten estimate that Iran is either as strong as before (38%) or even stronger (25%). A clear majority, 57%, states that the war "created more problems than it solved." This percentage is nearly triple the 21% who believe it solved more problems than it created. Regarding the consequences of the war, Americans seem to consider that Trump was not fully aware of what the involvement entailed. The poll asked if the Trump administration had understood the impact the war would have on the global economy. 64% responded that the war affected the global economy more than the government expected. This percentage includes 51% of Republicans.
End it
Perhaps the most important conclusion is that Americans and Trump agree on one point: they want the conflict to end and believe that he is seeking the same. The Fox News poll in mid-June showed that 70% of registered voters were concerned that the war would develop into a long-term commitment, while 87% considered it important to avoid a prolonged conflict. This likely explains why many are willing to accept a less-than-ideal deal. The government had estimated that the war would last about four to six weeks, but it has now dragged on for nearly four months. In this time, Americans have not seen significant tangible results. And given that from the start they did not see a serious reason for the war to begin, it is not difficult to conclude that it must end. Perhaps the most revealing finding is that the citizens themselves believe this is exactly what Trump is doing today: trying to find an exit way. The CBS poll asked if Americans believe that the Trump administration is proceeding with the deal because it achieved all its goals or because it "wants the conflict to end." Two-thirds of respondents answered that the government just wants to close the issue and end the war.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών