At the moment when Russia is sweeping Donbass and preparing for the final blow to the last strongholds – cities of the Ukrainians, Kyiv is reportedly willing to open a second front with Belarus as well as to attempt a highly symbolic and spectacular strike on the Crimean Bridge... at a time when it has heavily targeted the peninsula of Crimea.
These are moves that have sounded an alarm in Moscow...
Russian experts and analysts point out that on one hand any strike on the Crimean Bridge must be prevented, and on the other hand the preemptive response must be particularly harsh: such as turning Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhia into ashes, from where the majority of missiles and drones against Crimea and the south of Russia are launched...
In this context, the further destruction of bridges over the Dnieper is requested in order to neutralize the capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces... although the Russian army claims it shoots down 90% to 95% of the drones and missiles launched by Ukraine against Russian targets...
New front will open and destroy Ukraine
Following a series of attacks against Russia, Zelensky stated that it is time for the war to end.
However, Kyiv subsequently demanded that Belarus remove the military equipment deployed along the border and on June 19 gave, in the form of an ultimatum, a one week deadline to the Belarusians to deactivate the signal transponders which, according to the Ukrainian president, are used for the Russian Geran drones via mobile network antennas.
This move caused surprise even in the West.
Commentators launched severe criticism against the president of Ukraine: This dictator will completely destroy Ukraine.
In the worst-case scenario, this will open a new front and further weaken the already exhausted Ukrainian army.
We know every factory
Following the ultimatum of June 19, Zelensky proceeded to make statements regarding potential attacks on oil refineries in Belarus, which export almost their entire production to Russia.
According to SBU data, gasoline exports to Russia increased by 13 times, while diesel fuel exports tripled.
The Ukrainian leader argued that Belarusian exports largely neutralized the results of the attacks on refineries located on Russian territory and allowed Russia to adapt to the new conditions of the war.
Kyiv knows every factory that produces military equipment, instruments, and technology for the Russian army, Zelensky said, statements that sound like a demand to Minsk to completely halt military-technical cooperation with Moscow.
Smelled blood
Zelensky, as it is characteristically said, smelled blood, identified what he considers a weak point of the Union State of Russia–Belarus and is now striking it repeatedly, gradually increasing the tension.
However, if he manages to drag Belarus into the war, Kyiv might face very unpleasant consequences.
At this moment, no missile launches against Ukrainian targets are taking place from the territory of Belarus.
Because of this, the capabilities of Russia to carry out rapid strikes with ballistic missiles in Western Ukraine are limited: the distance from the Bryansk region to Lviv amounts to approximately 650 kilometers, while the range of the 9M723 semi-ballistic missiles of the Iskander operational-tactical systems is less than 500 kilometers.
Within range... western Ukraine
As a result, Russia can strike Western Ukraine either with isolated Oreshnik missiles, or with more massive but still particularly expensive and complex-to-produce Zircon hypersonic missile units.
The Kinzhal aero-ballistic missiles can also reach the region, but the need for the carrier aircraft to take off before launch significantly reduces the element of surprise.
An attack against Belarus would lead to the deployment of Russian Iskander systems on the territory of the country, with the result that the rear of the Ukrainian regime becomes fully accessible to strikes, since the width of Ukraine from north to south does not exceed 500 kilometers.
In this scenario, within the range of the Iskanders would be, beyond the Lviv region, the regions of Rivne, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk and even Chernivtsi, which is located on the border with Moldova and Romania.
The blow to the strategic rear of Ukraine would increase sharply, and indeed through the most numerous and difficult-to-intercept by air defense means of strike: semi-ballistic missiles.
Furthermore, given that the range of Russian guided glide bombs has now reached 200 kilometers, the intensity of the strikes would be multiplied.
Consequently, any attempt to attack Belarus would constitute a huge strategic mistake for Kyiv.
Part of a NATO plan
Many commentators in the West consider that such provocations are part of a NATO plan.
For example, they mention the possibility of a blockade of Kaliningrad.
Right now, foreign military analysts write, we are watching the beginning of a full-scale war in Europe.
The Russian military commentator Yury Kotyonok, noted: It is time for this war to end, who could disagree?
The issue lies in the details.
On the terms of the collective West, which has decided to lead things to the strategic defeat of Russia?
Zelensky is currently emboldened, he does not count the losses.
This is a peculiar energy vampirism at the level of a single man, whom they rapidly turned into a politician.
Russia must take the initiative
According to the Russian military analyst, the logic of in response to must be abandoned, because this phrase implies that the opponent has the initiative of the moves.
Regarding the real initiative, we are advancing, we are trying to attack under a hail of strikes from the unmanned systems of the opponent, as well as under missile and bombing strikes.
Unfortunately, he still possesses the capability to carry out such attacks.
Nevertheless, there is progress.
For now, however, this remains at a tactical level, Yury Kotyonok estimates.
The political analyst Bogdan Bezpalko expressed the certainty that the best response for Russia right now is the continuation of the Special Military Operation (SVO), the advance towards the west, the strengthening of protection against the threat of drones, the creation of mobile fire groups, multi-level air defense and a logistics system that remains operational even under enemy strikes.
The threat from Finland, Sweden
Bogdan Bezpalko pointed out a trend: while previously the chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz expressed the certainty that Russia will inevitably be defeated, now his rhetoric appears less categorical.
Merz himself now states: Russia must not be allowed to win this war.
The certainty is beginning to shake.
Despite the fact that funds are still being allocated.
Germany, for example, allocated 400 million euros for the purchase of missiles for air defense systems.
The only thing that could now lead them to a state of euphoria is the belief that Trump will unite with the European countries and begin to exert pressure on Russia, the expert added.
Undoubtedly, there are worrying trends, but the position of the Western countries is also not unified, Bezpalko reports, adding: Because the position of Italy, for example, differs significantly from the position of Germany.
And the position of the United States has a dual character.
They sell weapons to the European Union, but they have stopped delivering weapons to Ukraine for free.
And in any case, for the time being the United States are still immersed in the conflict with Iran.
As he says, Finland and Sweden as well as a number of other states, pose a certain danger to Russia due to the potential tension in the northwest of the country, where we do not possess strong military groups.
Through them, the Americans themselves can exert pressure on Russia.
The political analyst reminded of the aspirations of the USA: In general, it is an attempt to exercise control over the Northern Sea Route and overall over the Arctic. The USA have been seeking to enter there for a long time. From one side Alaska, from the other Scandinavia.
At 1,000 drones a day
The Russian manufacturer of electronic warfare systems Igor Potapov noted that the Ukrainians have a specific goal: they intend to increase drone flights up to 1,000 units daily.
Right now Ukraine is approaching the number of 600 drones.
The expert noted that the overload of the air defense (PVO) is particularly felt today.
However, the latest measures cause optimism: Now enterprises can modernize their protection systems and follow the example of the military: short-range air defense, interception drones, machine gun turrets or portable machine guns.
These are particularly effective means.
This should have been done already a year and a half ago.
The Russian regulatory framework is not so flexible.
And given that we are not under martial law, it is difficult to change the legislation quickly.
He also noted that the increasing use of drones by the Ukrainian side creates serious challenges for the existing air defense systems, a fact that makes the development of supplementary means of protection and interception at a local level necessary.
It will start within a month
One of the key problems today is the medium-range drones with a range of up to 200 kilometers.
The Russian military analyst, retired captain first rank Vasily Dandykin, also pointed out that defense is hindered by the use by the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the Starlink satellite system, as well as artificial intelligence technologies.
Now, as it is said, our people have found the antidote, as far as we know.
We will see how all this develops in practice.
All this is continuously developing; these are technological developments, Dandykin said.
The military analyst, retired colonel Anatoly Matviychuk, underlined that the European countries continue to supply Ukraine with drones: The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not face a shortage of drones today.
Europe supplies them with all categories of systems; they are produced in France, in England, in Germany.
However, he expressed reservations regarding the quality of the unmanned aircraft: Another issue is the quality. I believe that for now their quality is not yet high enough to be able to overcome our own air defense systems.
They shoot down 90% to 95% of the drones
According to the expert, the Russian air defense systems can shoot down 90% to 95% of the drones launched by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
As estimated by the military analyst and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) designer Sergey Tovkach, within approximately one month a turning point in the situation will occur: In the autumn the turning point will have come one hundred percent.
I know this because I am aware of certain developments that are underway from our side.
And of certain strategic decisions being made from our side.
I am confident that by autumn the Ukrainians will find themselves in a very difficult position.
But the increase of interception means from our side will require about one to one and a half months, the Russian analyst underlined, adding:
We need interception drones.
And we need more MOGs. These are Mobile Fire Groups.
Harsh retaliation
The attacks of the Ukrainians in Crimea have created huge problems for Russia.
Already there are large shortages of fuel while it is reported that the tourist season has already been destroyed and that the Ukrainians are now working for the collapse of the supply chain of the peninsula.
At the same time, information about a prepared attack on the Crimean Bridge appears more and more frequently.
The fact that the bridge will constitute the next target of massive attacks by the Ukrainians is also pointed out by the Russian military commentator Mikhail Onufrienko, who argues that the Russian army should begin bombing the Ukrainian bridges on the Dnieper.
To the question of whether the sole solution to the problem, or more precisely the thwarting of the plans of the Ukrainians for an attack on the Crimean Bridge, is the destruction of the system of bridges over the Dnieper, Russian analysts answer... negatively.
It is possible to collapse all crossings over the Dnieper, but this will in no way cancel an attack against Crimea, underlined the organizer of the Russian resistance of Mykolaiv, Sergey Lebedev.
Ashes... Odesa, Mykolaiv
It is necessary to systematically and decisively neutralize the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas located west of and adjacent to the front.
Mykolaiv and Odesa – and from there long-range missiles and unmanned aircraft can be launched, although most launches take place, let us say, from the southern parts of the regions.
In Mykolaiv certainly, and in Odesa, closer to the city, between the port Yuzhny and Odesa itself, the main launches take place there.
The Sumy region – there the opponent is barely holding on, and then the Chernihiv region.
Today successful strikes were carried out in the Rivne region.
I think this was a pass to Lukashenko from us.
Because from the Rivne region Ukraine is more prepared for potential provocations against Belarus, Lebedev said, emphasizing that the capabilities and resources of the opponent must be destroyed.
Within one day
These are the regions of Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhia which are under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
It is precisely from there that the drones and long-range missiles that strike Crimea, as well as the south of Russia: the Rostov region and Krasnodar, are launched.
They must be destroyed.
If it is not known where the missile warehouses are, then simply destroy any warehouses of this type, destroy the fuel stations.
Without fuel and lubricants (GSM), no one will carry missiles on their back, nor of course will they transport them with horses.
At least such a solution must be sought.
For example, Zaporizhia is a city in which, along with its suburbs, there are about 80 fuel stations.
Judging by the number of drones we produce, we could very well put them all out of service within a single day, Lebedev emphasized.
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