Japan's so-called "national survival crisis" does not stem from the Taiwan issue itself, but from the fact that Tokyo treats the Taiwan issue as its own existential threat.
The Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi, used the argument of a "national survival crisis" to justify the country's intervention in the Taiwan issue, provoking the wrath of Beijing and leading to what is described as a "disruption of rare earth supplies".
As China turned off the rare earths tap, the Japanese government tried to appear calm, assuring the domestic public that the situation remains under control.
However, Tokyo's continuous international appeals against Chinese "rare earth diplomacy" reveal that the shock caused may develop into a real national survival crisis.
Beijing wants to teach a lesson
According to the analysis, China seeks to use Japan as an example to be avoided for other countries that might intervene in the Taiwan issue.
Beijing considers that it has the exclusive right to determine what constitutes "unacceptable interference" and attempts to demonstrate the cost of such actions.
Thus, Japan is already experiencing the first consequences of a situation that it itself described as an "existential threat".
The Chinese strategy seems to have yielded some results.
The broader Western alliance has curtailed its rhetoric around Taiwan, particularly the United States under Donald Trump and the government of South Korea.
At the same time, Europe has moderated the narrative regarding the confrontation between "democracy and authoritarianism", while most countries in Southeast Asia chose to maintain a neutral stance.
However, on a practical level, the countries of the first island chain under the leadership of the USA not only did not reduce their containment moves against China, but strengthened their military cooperation and accelerated their defense preparations.
Japan failed to decouple from China
This is the second time that Japan faces a disruption of rare earth supplies from China. The first was in 2010.
Despite efforts over the last 15 years to diversify supply sources, the country's dependence on China decreased only from 90% to 60%.
Today, Tokyo attempts to absorb the shock by utilizing the strategic reserves it had built up in previous years.
However, China has completely cut off the supply of strategic and dual-use rare earths, maintaining only limited exports for purely civilian uses.
Critical metal exports are collapsing
The data shows the severity of the situation.
From January to April 2026, Chinese exports of seven categories of controlled rare earth products to Japan decreased by 34% on a year-on-year basis.
In March the drop reached 88%, while in April it was 82%.
Exports of dysprosium and terbium, materials essential for electric vehicle magnets and military applications, dropped to zero since January, while shipments of yttrium decreased by more than 90%.
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