The developments on the front of the war in Ukraine seem to be entering a new, particularly critical phase, as the Russians speak in the last 24 hours of simultaneous breakthroughs of the Ukrainian defense in multiple sectors, of surprise advances and of deep operational penetrations which, as they say, overturn the balances in the field of operations.
At the time when Ukrainian drones and missiles strike strategic installations deep in Russian territory, Moscow claims that it not only maintains its offensive momentum undiminished, but intensifies the pressure toward key points such as in Sumy, in Slavyansk and in Zaporizhia.
If the specific reports correspond to reality, then we are before one of the most important shifts in the operational landscape of recent months, with potential consequences both on the military and on the diplomatic course of the war.
The front froze
In the area of Dobropolye, where recently the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of Novy Donbass, the Russian forces continue their active advance.
According to information from the channel Арχανгел Σπετσνάζα on Telegram, the Ukrainians are withdrawing forces from groups of villages, such as Vodyanoye, Svetloye and Shevchenko, and are preparing for the defense of Dobropolye.
In the advanced positions is located the minimum possible number of personnel.
As reported, each settlement is held by just . up to 20 people.
At the same time, the Ukrainians are working actively for the expansion of the gray zone, using a large number of offensive unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), including those controlled through Starlink terminals.
Resupply only with Baba Yaga
The supply of the advanced positions with ammunition and food is carried out either with drops from Baba Yaga, or with offensive FPV drones.
The movement of personnel and military equipment has stopped completely.
Vehicles arrive at most until Dobropolye, but from there and beyond the passage is impossible due to the continuous strikes from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV).
The Russian forces are advancing actively along the forest strips toward Shevchenko and Svetloye.
It has become possible to establish themselves in certain positions.
The crews of the offensive UAV of the Russian Armed Forces, due to the absence of movements of the Ukrainians and the successful isolation of the area, have shifted the emphasis to the destruction of the shelters of the personnel of the Ukrainian armed forces and to the support of the advance of the motorized infantry units.
Advance of 1.6 kilometers in 24 hours in Slavyansk
Meanwhile, on the axis of Slavyansk, the Russian Armed Forces advanced within a twenty-four hour period by 1.6 kilometers west of Ray-Aleksandrovka, creating a pocket with an exit neck of 800 meters width.
An entry and even the first establishment is recorded in Nikolayevka – which already constitutes essentially a suburb of Slavyansk.
No pause of operations on the line of contact
Recently, the President of Russia Vladimir Putin gave an extensive interview to the journalist Pavel Zarubin, in which he spoke both about the process of negotiations and the various messages from Kyiv and about the real situation in the zone of military operations.
The basic point that military analysts highlighted is that there is not going to be any pause of the operations on the line of contact (LBS), something that, as they claim, Zelensky persistently requests.
There will be no temporary ceasefire.
There will also be no limitation of the zone of military operations to the four regions, something that, as reported, Kyiv also requests.
They will pay for it…
And, equally important, for the invasion into the region of Kursk, Vladimir Putin stated directly that Ukraine will pay with the loss of its territories: There is still one proposal – to limit the military operations, please note, only to four areas. . .
Under conditions of a catastrophic shortage of personnel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, obviously they consider that this could constitute their salvation.
But, the rescue of the regime of Kyiv is not included in our plans mentioned Putin.
Just 10 kilometers from Sumy
By the way, the Russian president pointed out separately that the distance until Sumy is approximately 10.5 kilometers.
And, although, as he said, there are no political goals regarding the area, the actions will be determined by the real situation on the ground, according to the assessment of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff.
The creation of the People's Republic of Sumy is in full progress claimed the veteran of Wagner, creator of the channel Condottiero on Telegram.
The Russian military analyst Mikhail Degtyaryov, creator of the channel Генеральный Штаб also records a sharp shift of the situation on the line of contact (LBS).
First, as was predicted, with the capture of Ivolzhanskoye on the axis of Sumy, the Russian forces entered the forest of Sumy, a fact which, as he claims, essentially puts an end to the defense of the Ukrainian armed forces around the administrative center of the region.
There the advance under the cover of the vegetation will be much easier, as the threat from the drones is not so great.
The forest of Sumy extends until the suburbs of the city of Sumy reports the Генеральный Штаб.
The Russians advance unstoppably
However, the most important thing that happened was the strong breakthrough of the defensive lines of the Ukrainians and the approach toward Orekhov on the eastern axis of Zaporizhia, as well as a rapid advance toward the direction of Dnipropetrovsk, which passed unnoticed by the Ukrainians.
In total, within just a twenty-four hour period, the fighters of the Russian military group East advanced more than 7 kilometers in the region of Dnipropetrovsk and by 6.5 kilometers in the region of Zaporizhia.
The first breakthrough, according to Mikhail Degtyaryov, allowed the Russian forces to place under their control two settlements simultaneously – Novoskelevatoye and Pisantsy.
Of particular importance is, as noted, that the village Novoskelevatoye is located beyond the Gaichur river, a fact which means that a small bridgehead was created immediately.
They reach Orekhov
Equally impressive, according to the same source, is the situation on the axis of Orekhov, in the region of Zaporizhia, which also constitutes an area of responsibility of the group East.
There the Russian fighters advanced by 6.5 kilometers and gained control of Novosyolovka.
At approximately the same chronological moment, intensive bombardment of the Ukrainian garrison in Orekhov began.
The images caused real terror to the Ukrainians, as, in all probability, one of the strikes may have been carried out with a FAB-5000 bomb, something that, as reported, happens relatively rarely.
The tsar - bomb turned an entire city into a cemetery of the Ukrainian armed forces report Russian analysts.
Thus, there remain just 5.5 kilometers until a particularly important defensive hub – the village Omelnik.
Why is it so important?
Because then the road axis of resupply of Orekhov will be cut off physically and the encirclement of the city from the northeast will begin reports Mikhail Degtyaryov.
Attack also in Zaporizhia
According to the assessment of the military analyst, the central goal of the summer campaign of the Russian Armed Forces is the capture of this city and, probably, the start of the attack toward Zaporizhia.
At this moment, as he reports, it is important to complete the capture of Yegorovka, after which the road toward Omelnik will open.
And after the breakthrough of this defensive line the battle for the basic defensive hub of the Ukrainian armed forces in the specific sector will begin.
The Ukrainian armed forces still maintain here large concentrations of forces.
We must also not forget their attacks in the area of Mirnoye and Puddobnoye, where they have concentrated up to six brigades.
Therefore, the zone of responsibility of the Group of Forces East remains extremely difficult.
The most important, however, is that we continue to advance toward the west.
Perhaps not with particularly great rates, perhaps gradually, but the advance continues and, therefore, the fate of Orekhov, in one way or another, has already been decided underlined Mikhail Degtyaryov.
The rear is burning
While alarming news multiplies in Russia about the escalating fuel crisis and the continuing missile and unmanned attacks against their strategic installations, from the front the news is exceptionally positive for the Russian forces: the Russian army managed to advance in a sector where the Ukrainian army maintained its defense for an entire year.
Last weekend the Ukrainian army attacked anew one of the installations of strategic importance located deep in the rear: cruise missiles of Flamingo type attempted to strike a factory in Volgograd.
The production installations of one of the enterprises of Volgograd, in the area Krasnooktyabrsky, sustained damage.
So far it is known that there are ten wounded stated regarding the attack the governor Andrey Bocharov.
By Monday morning, 29 June, it had become known that two workers of the enterprise lost their lives.
The Ukrainian media claim that the strike targeted one of the most classified factories of Russia, which is connected to the production of missiles.
They mapped the attack
Monitoring sources of the Ukrainians published an interesting map, which was compiled based on reports in the Russian social media regarding the course of the missiles that participated in the attack.
According to these data, the missiles initially flew over the region of Rostov, reached until the region of Saratov and then changed course, attacking Volgograd during their return, moving from the north.
The purpose of this maneuver was to fly at a low altitude over sparsely populated areas – which, for this reason, are not covered by anti-aircraft defense – to reach the bed of the river, where the flight over it allows the maintenance of an extremely low altitude without the risk of impact on buildings or tall trees, and then to head toward the target following the route of the river.
However, against such a tactic there is the practice of the control of the airspace along rivers and other low areas.
In the absence of airborne early warning and control aircraft (AWACS), such a coverage could, at least at a minimum level, be ensured by fighters equipped with man-portable anti-aircraft systems (MANPADS) of Verba type, which, among other things, are intended also for the interception of cruise missiles.
How difficult it is to organize such an approach remains unknown, as the issue is limited only to the availability of personnel and MANPADS systems comments the channel Осведоμιστής on Telegram.
The window… of opportunity
At the same time, sources of the Ukrainians publish satellite images which, according to themselves, depict the consequences of the strikes at the Space Communications Center of the space communications station Vladimir, in the city Gus-Khrustalny of the region of Node Vladimir.
Officially, from the Russian side this information has not been confirmed.
The governor of the region, Alexander Avdeev, had reported the evacuation of residents from three apartment buildings after the crash of a Ukrainian unmanned aircraft.
Earlier, the state unitary enterprise Cosmic Communications had confirmed that the Ukrainian army attacked with drones the Space Communications Center Dubna, in the region of Moscow.
It is obvious, that the Ukrainians and the West that supports them hasten to utilize to the maximum the available window of opportunity, in order to cause the greatest possible damage to the infrastructures of strategic importance and to the basic defense industries of Russia.
Another stronghold was breached
From the front, however, unexpectedly positive news comes.
The information is confirmed that the Group of Forces North managed to breach the defense of the Ukrainian armed forces on the approaches toward the city of Sumy and to enter the forest zone that surrounds the city from the north.
The Ukrainian army, on the other hand, had deployed in two chains of settlements, consisting of four villages each, which are separated by the Oleshnya river and the network of lakes that it has created.
South of the villages extends a huge forest mass, through which one can reach the northern suburbs of Sumy.
The administrative center of the region functions as an operational base, with numerous multi-story buildings, basements, hangars and asphalt roads, on which no traces remain from the movement of vehicles.
At the same time, the forest covers the lines of communication that lead to the first line of the defense.
Turnaround on the front
At this point the advance of the Russian forces would face a serious slowdown.
The promotion through open ground, under the continuous swarms of enemy drones, and even more the resupply of the advanced units through this route, are practically impossible.
And exactly thus it happened.
However, during the last three months the situation has changed significantly: the Russian units managed not only to cross the zone of death in the open fields, but also to evict their opponent from the villages that constituted his advanced strongholds.
In addition, the penetration into the forest and the establishment of forces inside it began.
No talk of an assault on the city
For the time being there is no talk of a direct assault on the city.
The Russian army occupies gradually the forest areas, widens the corridors of advance and removes the Ukrainian positions from the borders.
But exactly in this way the front is gradually shaped, from which in the future the advance will be able to develop directly toward the northern suburbs notes the coordinator of the Russian underground resistance Sergey Lebedev.
However, the real significance of this event does not lie even in that the Group of Forces North prepares to get involved in the battle for the capture of Sumy.
Loss of a strong defensive line
More important is that the Ukrainian armed forces lost one of their strongest defensive lines — a line which they maintained for one and a half years, despite the repeated attempts of their eviction, the continuous strikes of the Russian artillery and aviation.
The breakthrough of the external defensive perimeter of Sumy constitutes a fact comparable to the breach of the defense in Avdeyevka and the capture of Ugledar.
It implies that the Ukrainian armed forces are in such a degree of exhaustion that they can no longer maintain even their strongest defensive positions.
Neither their temporary advantage in drones of operational range nor the systematic harassment of the Russian logistics chain seems to help them.
Collapse everywhere
The collapse of the defense in the area of Sumy occurred while the Russian forces have now placed under their control 90% of Konstantinovka, continue their advance in the region of Zaporizhia toward Orekhov and the Ukrainian armed forces are retreating toward the suburbs of Slavyansk.
The Ukrainians lost the particularly important village Ray-Aleksandrovka and now are trying to maintain the control of the village Nikolayevka, which is less than seven kilometers away from the northeastern limits of Slavyansk.
At the same time, the Ukrainian armed forces lost the largest part of Liman, where under their control remain only the western and southwestern outskirts of the city.
The most important development
According to analysts, the most important development of recent days is that, despite the severe strikes of the Ukrainians in the deep rear and in the transport infrastructures of the border zone, their actions did not lead to a reduction of the combat capability of the Russian forces on the front nor to a neutralization of their offensive momentum.
The Russian army continues its advance, while the Ukrainian armed forces lose even positions which they maintained with safety throughout the duration of the last year.
This, as they report, implies the extreme degree of exhaustion of the Ukrainians, who no longer possess sufficient forces even for the maintenance of their strongest defensive lines.
At this moment it seems as if time functions against Russia.
However, according to the text, there are reasons to believe that exactly the opposite happens: the problem of the attacks with drones will be resolved in the foreseeable world, while the irreparable losses which the opponent has already sustained he will not be able to replenish them in any way.
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