The President of the United States Donald Trump has at times attacked and disparaged many of his European counterparts who are expected to participate in the NATO summit in Turkey next week.
However, the host Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have leveraged his close personal relations with the American president, securing his presence at the event in Ankara, a participation that may even be accompanied by major announcements in the sector of Turkish defense.
The "special relationship" between Trump and Erdogan
Donald Trump has repeatedly praised the Turkish president, calling him a "very tough leader" and a good friend.
"I wouldn't go for most people", he stated last week. "But he called me on the phone. He told me: 'Please, I am doing it in Turkey. You have to be there. The United States must be there.' And so I am going out of respect for President Erdogan".
The geopolitical leverage of the personal relationship
The leverage of this relationship has allowed Erdogan to avoid the embarrassment that a potential absence of the American president would cause, particularly during a period in which Trump has repeatedly threatened to reduce the American military presence in Europe and revise the US stance on NATO.
The American president has also systematically criticized the member states of the Alliance for their defense expenditures, while presenting the agreement to increase them as a personal success.
"Quid pro quos" and potential defense agreements
Trump has hinted that during his visit to Turkey, there may be announcements related to aircraft engines and a potential sale of F-35 fighter jets, from which Turkey had been excluded due to its relations with Moscow.
During a meeting with the Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte, when asked if he "is bringing a big gift for Erdogan", Trump answered characteristically:
"Yes, I will probably do something that will make him very happy".
The conflict with Russia and the blocking of the F-35
Turkey had been excluded from the F-35 program in 2019, following the purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, with the USA expressing concerns that the system could allow Moscow access to critical technological data of the fighter jet.
At the same time, the sale of F-110 engines, which are intended for the Turkish KAAN fighter jet program, is also under discussion.
Political reactions in the USA
There is significant bipartisan opposition in Congress to a potential sale of the F-35 as long as Turkey maintains the Russian S-400 system.
Even powerful Republican senators have expressed reservations.
Representative Gregory Meeks, top Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee, stated that the State Department did not sufficiently justify potential decisions to bypass parliamentary opposition for deals exceeding 700 million dollars.
The "warm rapprochement" between Washington and Ankara
Despite the tensions, relations between the USA and Turkey show signs of rapprochement.
The Department of Justice of the USA recently dropped a major case against the state-owned Turkish bank Halkbank, which was accused of violating sanctions against Iran.
The role of personal diplomacy
Trump has appointed his close associate, Tom Barrack, as ambassador to Turkey, further strengthening the communication channels between the two sides.
According to analysts, Erdogan and Trump maintain frequent telephone communications regarding issues concerning Syria, Gaza, and the Middle East.
Distance from the Biden era
During the presidency of Joe Biden, Washington kept its distance from Erdogan, citing democratic backsliding and Ankara's close relations with Russia.
Opposition parties and human rights organizations accuse the Turkish president of restricting freedom of the press and of political persecutions.
The background of Erdogan's strategic choice
The analyst Soner Cagaptay notes that Erdogan and Trump had an "instant personal chemistry" already since the first term of the American president.
Ankara had even rejected an invitation from Joe Biden in 2024, after the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, as an indirect sign of preference toward Trump.
The message from Erdogan about the "new era"
Erdogan has publicly stated that his relationship with Trump opens a new period in Turkish-American relations:
"With my friend Trump, we are opening the door to a new era. The telephone diplomacy between us never exceeds 24 hours", he had characteristically stated.
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