The more the US invests militarily in the war against Iran, the more space it creates for its main adversaries... Russia and China
The war against Iran is evolving into a disastrous strategic mistake for the US, as the massive consumption of American missiles and ammunition has reportedly begun to dangerously strain US stockpiles. The conflict that the American leadership expected to conclude quickly now carries a critical side effect, which is none other than the weakening of American military power across other strategic fronts. At the center are Patriot, Tomahawk, ATACMS, and PrSM, long-range weapons considered critical for any future high-intensity conflict. According to Russian estimates, the transfer of forces and weapon systems to the Persian Gulf has already created gaps in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, limiting Washington's margin to face multiple threats simultaneously. However, the more the US invests militarily in the war against Iran, the more space it creates for its main adversaries: Russia and China.
Shortages in the US
Operation "Epic Fury" required the transfer of naval forces, aircraft, and air defense troops to the Persian Gulf. As a result, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region were partially stripped of their defensive capabilities. Nevertheless, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confidently states that her country possesses "more than enough firepower to conduct any operation the president orders, anytime and anywhere." Analysts, however, argue that there is a significant ammunition shortage in the US, the conditions for which had already begun to emerge under Joe Biden. Thus, the reckless decision of Donald Trump to strike Iran objectively turned himself and his allies into targets for external threats. In reality, the Americans were not ready for this campaign! According to information from government officials close to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Dan Caine, the latter, after the completion of the first phase of the attack on Iran, informed Donald Trump about the risks of further using depleted stocks. However, the president decided to continue military operations, believing they would conclude quickly. The White House then turned to defense contractors, asking them to accelerate production to maintain the pace of attacks.
Replenishment in 3 years
Defense industries responded that even under the most favorable conditions, the Pentagon will need about three years to replenish the arsenal of more than 1,500 Patriot missiles that, according to the report, were consumed during "Epic Fury." Incidentally, fewer than 1,700 of these missiles remain today in the United States.
The... US own goal
After the start of the US-Israeli attack on February 28 of this year, Trump repeatedly assured that he would achieve victory within a few weeks. In the end, however, due to the shortage of ammunition, he did not even dare to launch the massive bombardments originally scheduled for July. And six months later, Trump is still searching for a way to stop the war he started himself. He was infuriated when he learned from the media about the ammunition shortage and ordered an investigation into the leak of information from government circles, threatening criminal liability. The American president makes no secret of the fact that any public discussion regarding "missile and bomb hunger" offers the adversary unwanted opportunities. The issue is that Washington does indeed possess an impressive stockpile of weapons, as claimed by the aforementioned Leavitt, Defense Secretary Hegseth, and Trump himself. But not all weapons are equal! They conceal the fact that in this case, it concerns mostly unsophisticated, obsolete, and unsuitable ammunition, including more than 100,000 UPAB-type guided glide bombs. The problem with using them is that these unguided gravity bombs are dropped relatively close to targets, which, for obvious reasons, jeopardizes the safety of bombers. In contrast, effective cruise missiles can be launched from a distance of several hundred kilometers. It is precisely these missiles that the American military significantly exhausted during this operation, while also expending certain types of ballistic missiles, ATACMS and the more advanced PrSM systems. But Trump shifted the blame onto his predecessor... Namely, that Biden recklessly squandered missiles while courting Zelensky for three years!
Hostages of superpower ambitions
On Capitol Hill, they fully realize that in a war against Russia and/or China, long-range missiles will play a decisive role. It is no secret that the leaderships of both countries, with the help of their intelligence services, closely monitor American stockpiles via radar, spy satellites, and agents. Furthermore, they base their current observations on congressional spending data as well as information from defense contractors. In fact, the Kremlin had assessed American defense potential even before the attack in the Middle East. The four-year conflict in Donbass clearly demonstrated to Russian strategic analysts that Washington is militarizing at a slower rate than expected. It is not only governments taking an interest in the state of the US defense industry; even everyday internet bloggers and military correspondents follow the topic and are quite well aware of the current situation. Recently, "Komsomolskaya Pravda" journalist Alexander Kots called the situation "very favorable": the fewer precision weapons the US possesses, the fewer will end up in Ukraine. Even if Trump's successor wishes to increase aid, empty arsenals will make it virtually impossible.
A slow-burning bomb
This phenomenon is particularly critical for Asia, where the Pentagon has long foreseen the threat of Taiwan being seized by the People's Liberation Army of China. And yet, it was precisely the Indo-Pacific Command that served as the main supplier of ammunition for the campaign against Iran. Specifically, Tomahawks and other long-range weapons were transferred from bases in Guam and Diego Garcia, as well as from allies Australia and the Philippines. The strike group of the 7th Fleet was also moved out of the Asia-Pacific region. Finally, hundreds of air defense systems were dispatched to the conflict zone from the Republic of Korea. Now, according to the report, this American bridgehead in the Far East has been weakened against Pyongyang, as the United States transferred tactical reconnaissance assets to the Persian Gulf and deployed part of its antimissile capabilities there. All these actions could lead to a deterioration of the situation. Concerns have already been expressed that Seoul and Tokyo will be disappointed by Washington's ability to protect them through non-nuclear defense, leading to the temptation to build their own nuclear shield for more reliable deterrence. As is known, in the EU, America's NATO allies are already prepared to buy weapons from other sources...
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