The harder Kyiv is hit, the more urgent and agonizing are Ukrainian calls for negotiations, and today's (August 27) appeal by Zelensky's chief advisor, Kiril Budanov, for trilateral talks involving Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington this coming September could not be an exception, according to reporting by Russian outlet Lenta on August 27.
Specifically, on the morning of August 27, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, spoke of a potential meeting between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in September.
According to him, trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are currently suspended, but there is planning for their «relaunch» next month.
«I hope so, yes. And of course with the participation of the Americans. We cannot move forward without them», stated Kirill Budanov.
Moscow rejects the timetable, analysts point only to «technical» talks
However, the Press Secretary of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov, stated that for now he has no information regarding specific plans or a timetable for the next round of talks.
According to the Kremlin spokesperson, Moscow continues to maintain contacts at the operational service level with Washington on the Ukrainian issue.
Roman Reinhardt, associate professor in the Department of Diplomacy at MGIMO University, stated to Lenta.ru that, even if trilateral negotiations resume, discussions will likely focus on technical issues, similar to those examined in the meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in January and February of this year.
«If the negotiating process indeed resumes in the near future, something that remains extremely uncertain, then in all probability it will concern talks of a technical nature», noted Roman Reinhardt.
Thriller surrounding Kushner and Witkoff visit to Moscow
On August 23, the agency reported, citing a diplomatic source, that the visit to Moscow by American President Donald Trump's Special Envoy for the Middle East, Stephen Witkoff, as well as American businessman and son-in-law of the President of the US, Jared Kushner, which had initially been scheduled for late August, was postponed.
«This means that there are reasons for the postponement», the same source stated.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Russia reportedly sees no alternative to continuing military operations in Ukraine, amid a substantive deadlock in negotiations for settling the conflict.
According to the report, Russian leadership continues to hope that Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Moscow with new proposals on the Ukrainian issue, although Kremlin expectations for meaningful progress in negotiations remain limited.
Kremlin: «There is no need for further escalation, because we are crushing them on the fronts...»
Responding to these American leaks, Dmitry Peskov underscored that Russia, as he said, has no need for military escalation in Ukraine, as it is recording progress on the front.
At the same time, he warned that Moscow will respond with particular severity to attacks by Kyiv against Russian infrastructure.
According to Roman Reinhardt, objective conditions for negotiations regarding Ukraine continue to exist.
However, since the last trilateral meeting in Geneva, on February 17 and 18, no new developments have emerged capable of substantially altering the willingness of the parties to return to the negotiating table.
The political analyst argued that Russia continues to declare its commitment to the negotiation process, while Kyiv, in his assessment, acts primarily on the basis of tactical calculations.
He added that the United States has not yet achieved its goals in the Middle East conflict, a fact that, as he estimated, has contributed to the slowing down of talks on Ukraine.
«Consequently, I would not speak of any qualitative shift in the layout of data», stated Roman Reinhardt.
Budanov claims Ratcliffe of the CIA brought a negotiation timetable to Moscow...
According to Kirill Budanov, the Ukrainian issue was raised during the visit of US CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow, without however constituting the primary topic of discussions.
The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine mentioned that the greater part of discussions between Moscow and Washington concerned bilateral relations between the two countries.
Stanislav Tkachenko, professor in the Department of European Studies at the School of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University and analyst at the Valdai Club, estimated in statements to Lenta.ru that it is unlikely that John Ratcliffe threatened Russia with harsh measures on the part of the US regarding the war in Ukraine during his visit to Moscow.
According to him, the head of the CIA could have proposed a temporary suspension of mass strikes against infrastructure, but not formulated threats toward the Russian side.
«The US is drowning... in Hormuz, they cannot threaten Russia»
«In general terms, the United States cannot substantially threaten Russia at this time, as to a large degree we now control the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine», argued Stanislav Tkachenko.
Roman Reinhardt estimated for his part that John Ratcliffe's visit and reports of resuming negotiations may be connected, but not directly.
According to him, the results of the visit could have contributed indirectly to rekindling the discussion on a potential settlement of the Ukrainian conflict.
«Most likely, those who linked the visit of the head of the CIA with the resumption of negotiations merely used Ratcliffe's trip as a pretext for relevant news reporting, possibly to sound out reactions», concluded Roman Reinhardt.
Vatican involvement and the unexpected visit to Moscow
Meanwhile, on August 25, Vatican Secretary for Relations with States Paul Richard Gallagher arrived in Russia for the first time since November 2021.
The head of diplomacy of the Holy See held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, issuing an appeal for substantive dialogue aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine.
He also met with the Russian presidential advisor on international affairs, Yuri Ushakov.
Leonid Sevastyanov, head of the World Union of Old Believers (WUOB), who maintains contacts with the Vatican and personally knew Pope Francis, spoke to Lenta.ru about Gallagher's capabilities to negotiate with Russia, the West, and Ukraine.
According to Sevastyanov, the archbishop's position is strengthened by the fact that he does not represent any Western power, while simultaneously understanding European political culture in depth.
As he noted, the Holy See is capable of speaking simultaneously with Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, London, and European capitals, without pursuing its own military or geopolitical interests.
Moscow values Holy See involvement, but...
For his part, Roman Reinhardt estimated that it is rather unlikely that the Vatican will turn into a new, fully developed negotiating platform for settling the Ukrainian crisis, citing a series of political and practical factors.
The political analyst pointed out that resolving technical issues would require contacts not only with the Holy See, but also with a series of countries that Moscow considers unfriendly.
«I do not think we should expect the Vatican to evolve into a new Anchorage, Abu Dhabi, or Geneva», commented Roman Reinhardt, associate professor in the Department of Diplomacy at MGIMO University.
At the same time, he left open the possibility of consultations with the Vatican on individual aspects of the negotiation process, emphasizing the experience that the Holy See possesses in mediation.
«We highly appreciate its constructive stance and its dedication to peace efforts. And, of course, these initiatives, which have been undertaken and continue, should not be overlooked», added Reinhardt.
The plan that the US, NATO, and Ukraine want to impose on the talks agenda
It is noted that on August 24, The Times published information regarding a new peace plan reportedly formulated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which, according to the report, provides for a ceasefire, withdrawal of troops from the front line, and the creation of a security zone.
The plan was reportedly drafted by Kyiv in cooperation with representatives of American President Donald Trump and European officials.
Commenting on the relevant reports, the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, underscored that Moscow has received no official proposal from either Kyiv or the West regarding the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict.
The Russian diplomat added that dialogue should not be conducted via ultimatums, but through the search for compromises that will take into account the interests of both sides.
The Russians make it clear: Negotiations are not conducted through press leaks
«Everyone now realizes that serious initiatives for a settlement are not published in the press. (...) When this happens, it means that the primary goal is to create the perception of readiness for resolving the conflict and not to show real commitment to it», Maria Zakharova had characteristically stated a few days earlier.
The spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also declined to confirm whether non-public contacts between Moscow and Kirill Budanov exist.
According to Roman Reinhardt, despite public rhetoric, the resumption of political negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv is considered, at the present stage, rather unlikely.
«I would not expect any significant progress in this field at this stage», noted the political analyst.
«By the end of the winter it became understood, possibly in a bitter way for many, that the notorious "spirit of Anchorage" had begun to fade and, in my view, there are currently no indications that it is about to reappear in any way», concluded Roman Reinhardt.
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