The conflict in Ukraine, which began in 2014 and escalated in 2022 with the Russian military intervention, continues to shape global politics and international relations.
As the battle for the Donbass region remains fierce and the international community searches for ways to achieve a peaceful settlement, the United States appears to be taking on an active role in reshaping the geopolitical balance in the region.
According to reports by the New York Times and the Daily Telegraph, Washington is ready to offer strategic security guarantees to Ukraine, in exchange for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region, a development that creates new possibilities but also dangerous consequences for the region and global stability.
It is noted that on 17 December, the New York Times, citing sources, reported that representatives of the United States and the European Union, in meetings with the Ukrainian delegation in Berlin, agreed on two documents concerning security guarantees.
These provide for the strengthening of the Ukrainian armed forces and the deployment of European troops in the country as a deterrent force.
According to the report, one of the documents describes “general principles” similar to the guarantees of Article 5 of the NATO Charter on collective defense.
The second part of the agreement concerns cooperation between the armies of the United States and Europe with Ukraine.
This is expected to protect the country from further military action in the coming years.
It is recalled that earlier, Russia characterized the stance of the United States in the negotiations on Ukraine as a “bluff”.
The US strategy for security guarantees
The security guarantees offered by America to Ukraine include military support from the West and the possible deployment of European troops in Ukraine, while Washington states that it is ready to use weapons such as the F-35 and Tomahawk missiles in the event of a violation of the ceasefire by Russia.
These guarantees resemble the security agreements that have been made between the United States and other countries, such as Israel and South Korea, where Washington has undertaken military action during periods of threat to its allies.
The idea of deploying European troops in Ukraine, however, is extremely dangerous, as Russia has repeatedly stated that any move involving NATO forces on Ukrainian soil will be considered a direct provocation and a violation of its red lines.
The impact of security guarantees on Russia - US relations
The willingness of the United States to grant such security guarantees to Ukraine and the possibility of military action in the event of a ceasefire violation are causing intense concerns in Russia.
Vladimir Putin and his advisers have repeatedly emphasized that the expansion of NATO toward Russia’s borders and a military presence in the country are acceptable only under specific conditions, while military intervention by the United States is likely to worsen the already tense situation.
If Washington agrees to the deployment of troops and the use of military systems such as Tomahawk missiles or F-35 aircraft, Russia may consider this move an escalation of the conflict, with a possible response on its part.
The threat of escalation and the three scenarios - bombs for the security guarantees
There are three main theories regarding the direction that America may follow and what the reaction of Russia might be.
1) Reasonable caution and European proposals: The first version is that Washington has not officially consented to the proposals mentioned in the reports, but that these are proposals by European countries circulated with the aim of provoking a strong reaction from the Kremlin. According to this version, Washington may withdraw or modify these proposals and seek a more compromise-based solution for the future of Ukraine.
2) Agreement from the American side: According to the second version, Washington has indeed agreed to provide such security guarantees, reinforced by pressure from the strategic circle of the Republican Party “hawks”, European allies and Kyiv. Here, the aim is to lead Russia to reject the plan, which would allow the West to accuse Moscow of the failure of the peace agreement and impose strict sanctions against Moscow.
3) Acceptance by Russia: The third version presupposes that Russia may accept these terms, provided that the United States offers significant concessions, such as acceptance of the withdrawal of Ukrainians from the Donbass, the lifting of sanctions and the recognition of Russian sovereignty over the annexed regions of Ukraine. This version appears unlikely for Russia, which insists that it will not allow a foreign military presence in Ukraine.
The most dangerous theory of the three is certainly the second, which would trigger a frenzied cycle of military escalation with unpredictable consequences.
Russia’s reactions and impacts on political strategy
Russia, if it ultimately agrees to accept the United States security guarantees, could seek the lifting of sanctions and the recognition of its sovereignty over Crimea and the regions it has occupied in Eastern Ukraine.
Moscow, however, may react strongly to any deployment of NATO military forces in Ukraine, and the situation could escalate further, with open military conflict remaining visible.
In addition, the strategy of Trump and his allies to proceed with such an agreement may also cause internal political contradictions in the United States, where forces supporting the strengthening of the American military role on the international stage may clash with those who prefer a more cautious stance.
The shaping of security guarantees for Ukraine, although at first glance it appears as a way to end the war, entails significant risks for the region and for global peace.
Serious escalation, unpredictable consequences
Washington’s strategy, if it truly leads to the deployment of military forces in Ukraine or the use of advanced weapons in the event of a ceasefire violation, could provoke a serious escalation with Russia, and even lead to direct conflict.
The decision of the United States to proceed with such guarantees, although theoretically it may strengthen Ukraine’s security, constitutes a strategy that carries high risks for international relations and long-term stability in the region.
The future of the conflict depends on the ability of the international community to find a compromise path that will ensure peace without escalating the conflict.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών