In 2025, we witnessed a clear acceleration of the global arms race.
Escalating war rhetoric in Europe, the continued support for Ukraine’s armed forces, and the so-called “golden” defense initiatives of Donald Trump, backed by tens of billions of dollars, fundamentally reshaped the pieces on the world’s geopolitical chessboard.
Political confrontation is increasingly giving way to direct competition between military programs, and even maintaining the balance of military power now requires enormous financial resources.
There is, however, another path: the choice of responses that operate on an entirely different level, asymmetrical by nature, exploiting the technological infrastructure and vulnerabilities of the opposing side.
Russia has identified and begun developing precisely such solutions, without abandoning investments in traditional weapons systems.
How Russia avoids a costly arms race
A fully asymmetrical, and fundamentally strategic, response to Donald Trump’s “golden” defense initiatives lies in Russia’s development of next-generation weapons systems.
By late 2025, two major announcements drew attention to strategic systems powered by nuclear energy sources integrated into the weapon itself: the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile with practically unlimited range, and the nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle Poseidon.
By the end of October 2025, both systems had demonstrated, during tests, the ability to operate autonomously thanks to their onboard nuclear power units.
The emergence of these innovative systems was made possible by significant scientific breakthroughs by Russian nuclear scientists in the 1990s and 2000s, as well as the exceptional efforts of designers, manufacturers, and test engineers.
In practice, these platforms mark the birth of entirely new categories of strategic nuclear deterrence systems, capabilities that no other country in the world currently possesses and is unlikely to possess for quite some time.
They represent a decisive “card” in the new phase of confrontation.
At the same time, more traditional missile technologies remain a powerful tool for shaping the political landscape without crossing the threshold of actual use.
In late December 2025, it was announced that plans to place the first units equipped with the Oreshnik medium-range strategic missile system on combat duty were nearing implementation.
Minsk stated that up to ten such systems would be deployed in Belarus.
At the same time, it is considered highly likely that one of the first Oreshnik brigades will be stationed at the Kapustin Yar test range.
Deployment is expected at brigade level, probably both in Belarus and in the European part of Russia.
The system is equipped with hypersonic ballistic missiles that can also be used in a non-nuclear configuration. As such, Oreshnik could become the first non-nuclear deterrence system of pan-European significance: with a range of up to 5,000 kilometers, it can strike any target on the continent.
Meanwhile, work continues on preparing the deployment and completing tests of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, a heavy liquid-fueled ICBM designed to replace the older Voevoda system and widely regarded as the most powerful missile of its kind in the world.
At the same time, the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology is likely developing new solid-fuel missiles to replace both mobile and silo-based Topol-M systems. By 2026, the older Topol-M systems will have reached 29 years of service, and their replacement is already on the horizon.
The nuclear triad – Missiles, fleet, and air power back in the spotlight
Russia’s nuclear triad consists of three elements: land-based missile systems, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and long-range aviation.
In 2025, the Russian Aerospace Forces received two Tu-160M strategic bombers.
Two programs are progressing in parallel: the construction of new Tu-160M aircraft and the modernization of older Tu-160s to the same standard. Both programs are expected to continue until the mid-2030s, significantly strengthening the hypersonic capabilities of Russia’s long-range aviation.
The upgraded Tu-160M can carry the latest Kh-101 and Kh-BD cruise missiles, as well as likely next-generation hypersonic weapons.
At the same time, the Tu-95MS fleet is being modernized to the Tu-95MSM standard, allowing these aircraft to carry modern cruise missiles.
In 2025, the nuclear submarine fleet was reinforced with the commissioning of the K-555 “Knyaz Pozharsky,” a Borei-A class submarine (Project 955A) equipped with 16 Bulava missiles.
Under the Borei program, the Navy plans to receive at least 12 new strategic nuclear submarines by 2030.
However, the effective deployment of the maritime nuclear component is impossible without a strong conventional navy.
Accordingly, Russia is building a balanced surface and submarine fleet tailored to modern operational requirements.
Alongside strategic submarines, construction continues on the Yasen-M class attack submarines (Project 885M). The sixth vessel in the series, the K-572 Perm, is currently undergoing sea trials.
These are among the most advanced submarines in the world, capable of launching Zircon hypersonic anti-ship missiles.
By 2030, the Navy plans to operate a total of 12 Yasen-class submarines.
Their primary missions include protecting strategic submarines and engaging enemy surface and submarine forces of all categories.
Meanwhile, the future flagship of the Russian Navy, the heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser Admiral Nakhimov (Project 11442M), has entered sea trials.
The ship has been equipped with the most advanced naval weapons systems: vertical launchers for Zircon, Kalibr, Oniks, and Otvet missiles, area air-defense systems comparable to the S-400, close-in defense systems such as Pantsir-SM, as well as modern electronic warfare and anti-submarine warfare capabilities.
This unique vessel, modernized by shipbuilders in Severodvinsk, is expected to enter operational service after completion of trials, likely in 2026.
Russia’s interests in the Arctic also require special protection. For this purpose, specialized ice-class warships are being developed. In April 2025, the Ministry of Defense announced the arrival of the first Arctic patrol ship Ivan Papanin (Project 23550) in Severodvinsk, the main base of the Northern Fleet. The vessel had traveled from the Baltic Sea to the Arctic to complete the final stage of trials.
Air defense forces remain another critical priority. Just a week ago, it was announced that the first fully equipped regiment of the S-500 air and missile defense system had been placed on combat duty. This unique defensive system is capable of intercepting all types of aerospace threats, including ballistic missiles.
Tactical aviation is also expanding
Since 2023, production rates of the fifth-generation Su-57 fighter have increased.
In 2025, the first exports of the Su-57 began, with deliveries to Algeria, a significant milestone for the Russian aerospace industry.
Development of the platform continues: in December, a Su-57 equipped with the new Izdeliye 177 engine completed its maiden flight. This engine is expected to be used in all export versions of the Su-57E.
Serial production of the Su-34 frontline bombers and Su-35S multirole fighters is also continuing at an accelerated pace.
These aircraft are in high demand in the operational zone and carry much of the combat load against ground and air targets.
The Su-34, in particular, is the main platform for munitions equipped with UMPK and UMPB guidance kits, which convert conventional bombs into precision weapons.
The introduction of the UMPB in 2025 extended the strike range against ground targets to as much as 200 kilometers.
The battlefield of the future is already here
Deliveries of advanced ground systems to the operational zone are also increasing.
The T-90M Proryv tanks, Malva and Giatsint-K self-propelled artillery systems, and the latest Tornado multiple rocket launcher systems have significantly enhanced the mobility and firepower of ground forces.
In 2025, the wheeled self-propelled howitzer 2S43 Malva made its first appearance in the Victory Day parade on Red Square.
Armed with a 152-mm gun comparable to that of the Msta-S, the system offers high mobility and increased automation in artillery fire control.
Both the Malva and the Giatsint-K rank among the most successful systems in the military operation in Ukraine.
Finally, modern ground forces require drone coverage, and this is a top priority.
Alongside new variants of tactical-range loitering munitions such as the Lancet, the range and quantity of FPV (First Person View) drones has increased significantly. Fiber-optic-controlled drones are now widely used, dramatically improving resistance to electronic warfare and enhancing strike accuracy.
The use of drones has significantly reduced personnel losses and made it possible to clear forward areas before unit advances, creating security zones several kilometers deep free of enemy forces.
This, in turn, enables offensive operations with far fewer losses than in the past.
Overall, by the end of 2025, the Russian defense-industrial complex has demonstrated that it possesses reliable answers to the uncontrolled militarization of neighboring states.
The sector is expanding both qualitatively and quantitatively. Most importantly, a substantial foundation has been laid for future successes, which are likely to become visible in the near future.
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