Greece entered the three-year period 2024–2026 with positive growth rates and restored fiscal credibility.
Public debt is gradually decreasing — from 194% of GDP in 2020 to 154% in 2024, and it is estimated at 137.6% in 2026.
The yields on ten-year bonds hover around 3.2%, while the spread against German bonds has fallen to 70–80 basis points.
The country has regained investment grade and records primary surpluses above 3%, showing that its credibility capital has been restored.
However, behind this macroeconomic progress lies a worrying phenomenon, notes Michalis Sallas, Chairman of Lyktos Group, Honorary Chairman of Piraeus Bank, and former University Professor, in his op-ed intervention:
The gap between economic recovery and social prosperity
GDP is growing at 2.2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, but the purchasing power of citizens remains among the lowest in Europe.
Greece ranks 26th — second to last — in terms of per capita income in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS).
The average wage in 2024 lags 25% behind the European average, while in real terms it is nearly 30% lower than that of 2008.
Unemployment has fallen to 8.6%, yet the inability to save remains widespread.
Seven out of ten young people state that they cannot save even €100 per month, while the richest 1% of adults hold approximately €375 billion, that is, 30% of the country’s private wealth.
The Gini index, which measures income inequality, stands at 32 (compared to the European average of 30), while the proportion of citizens at risk of poverty or social exclusion reaches 26.9%, compared to 21% in the EU.
These figures reflect a permanent distortion of growth without fairer distribution.
The geography of growth intensifies the problem
Attica produces almost 47% of GDP, with its per capita income nearly double that of Eastern Macedonia–Thrace.
The periphery sinks into stagnation and demographic decline, creating two Greeces: one extroverted, dynamic, and tourism-favored; and another aging, subsidy-dependent, and declining.
This internal divergence is not only economic.
It is also political, because it shapes different perceptions, expectations, and ultimately social inequalities.
The government pursues fiscal stability through surpluses, but without redistribution and active equality policy, this stability will prove fragile.
The idea of a “primary surplus cap”, so that part of the excess surpluses is directed to lower incomes, is a necessary step.
Even more essential would be a mild progressive property tax for assets above €1 million, with an exemption for the primary residence and deduction of debts.
This measure would yield €2.5–3 billion annually to strengthen the periphery and small- and medium-sized enterprises.
Greece needs not only an investment grade, but a social grade as well
The real measure of an economy is not only bond yields but also the standard of living of its citizens.
If the country continues to grow without sharing the improvement, political stability will be undermined by the silent erosion of the excluded — an erosion that cannot remain silent for long.
The new Greek normality must not be built solely on growth rates, but on the balance between production and justice.
Greece in the coming years will be judged by whether it manages to turn its surpluses into social capital, to support the middle class, and to unite the two speeds of the country into a single path of progress.
Because without social cohesion, no economy is truly stable.
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