There are daily reversals in the Ukrainian issue, which is developing into an endless diplomatic thriller.
In a development that can be considered expected, the American president Donald Trump is reportedly ready to recognize Crimea and the other annexed territories, Donbass and Novorossiya, as Russian in order to end the war.
According to an exclusive report by The Telegraph, Trump is sending his special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to make the direct offer to Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
The Americans want to move forward with an agreement despite concerns among Ukraine’s European allies.
A well-informed source stated: “It is increasingly clear that the Americans are not interested in the European position.
They say that the Europeans can do whatever they want,” said the well-informed source.
However, things are not that simple, since the Ukrainian leadership and the Europeans, the former for geopolitical reasons and the latter for political reasons, insist on continuing the war.
Trump wants the end of the war for business and geopolitical reasons
Trump clearly desires an agreement on the Ukrainian issue that will allow him to proceed with strategic economic and energy agreements with Russia.
However, the war in Ukraine does not appear to be nearing its end, as there are strong reactions from European countries and from the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, who do not agree with the Trump logic for ending the conflict.
The political pressure exerted on Zelensky is one of the central issues in the current situation, with the United States appearing to want to control him rather than replace him.
Russia is one of the largest producers of natural gas and oil in the world, while the United States has developed significant energy production, mainly through the extraction of shale oil and gas, shale oil and gas.
Despite confrontation on many issues, the two countries could advance agreements that concern:
1) Supply of natural gas and oil: The United States, with its production of liquefied natural gas, LNG, has the capability to cooperate with Russia in fields of energy security and trade. An agreement could include the export of LNG to Europe or to other markets where Russia lacks sufficient access due to sanctions.
2) Joint investments in energy infrastructure: Joint programs could be created for upgrading or constructing new energy infrastructure, such as pipelines or LNG terminals.
These are issues that were discussed in Alaska on 15/8/2025, and the two leaders agreed in principle.
It should also be noted that the United States and Russia have a significant history of cooperation in the field of arms control.
Specifically, in matters of strategic nuclear weapons, they have signed several agreements, such as the New START, Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. Their cooperation in arms control can be extended into other fields, including:
1) Extension of the New START Treaty or new agreements limiting short and medium-range nuclear weapons.
2) Strategic cooperation in the development of defense systems, for example for the development of missile defense systems and mutual security.
The United States and Russia, although competitors, have a shared interest in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the arms race, and negotiations for new agreements are not excluded, especially if incentives emerge for lifting or reducing sanctions.
Russia and the United States have significant economic interests that could lead to agreements.
Reviving trade and investments could occur through increased commercial exchanges in fields such as agriculture, technology, and financial services, mutual investment programs in infrastructure, or joint business initiatives.
Russia and the United States could cooperate in balancing the growing influence of China in the Pacific region and Central Asia.
Despite tensions, there are opportunities to prevent Russian expansion in Central Asia, with the United States offering strategic support to countries in the region and strategic agreements for Pacific security and managing external pressures from China.
American political pressure
Trump has repeatedly stated that Ukraine is not a strategic priority for the United States and that the war in Ukraine must end so that other important agreements, particularly with Russia, can move forward.
Trump’s desire is to secure economic and energy agreements that will strengthen the American economy and reduce US dependence on foreign energy sources.
Furthermore, the American president’s approach is that a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian issue will open the way for a new strategic cooperation with Russia in confirming the agreements of the Alaska Summit on 15/8/2025.
Trump wants to control Zelensky, not replace him
The United States appears to want to pressure Zelensky without removing him from the presidency.
According to political analysts, the basic motive for this pressure is that Zelensky, as a known ally of the West, is easier to control and to pressure into concessions compared to a new leader who might be more independent or have different priorities.
One example of this pressure is the corruption cases linked to the Ukrainian government, especially involving the resigned head of the Ukrainian presidency, Andrey Yermak.
Yermak’s resignation brings uncertainty to the political scene of Ukraine, while progress on the peace plan will likely be postponed due to political turmoil.
According to political analysts such as Markelov, the United States is attempting to weaken Zelensky’s position through public exposure of corruption within his circle, pressuring him to make concessions during peace negotiations.
The goal appears to be to create pressure so that the Ukrainian president agrees to an end of the war that favors American interests without causing a total collapse of his political standing.
Ukrainian contradictions
Zelensky, for his part, appears to be particularly cautious in his statements concerning peace talks and the plan to end the war.
Despite pressure from the United States, the Ukrainian president continues to make relatively mild statements, understanding that his personal political achievements are directly connected to his image abroad and to maintaining the support of Western allies.
Zelensky’s stance may not simply be the result of his personal views, but also of pressure from the United States to make concessions while simultaneously satisfying the demands of his European allies, who are more cautious regarding the idea of ending the war without a substantial agreement.
The Europeans are doing everything to continue the war
European leaders, especially those from Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Baltic states, firmly oppose any proposal for a peace agreement with Russia that does not include explicit guarantees for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
This strong reaction stems from the fear that such an agreement could open the way for other aggressive actions by Russia in the region, something they consider a central issue for Europe’s security.
The reality, however, is that despite increasing pressures for a peaceful resolution of the conflict and the difficulties faced by the societies of European countries due to energy crises and economic recession, there are powerful factors that reinforce the European stance in favor of continuing the war.
These factors are not only geopolitical and strategic, but also linked to the economy, social cohesion, and the interests of the European defense industry.
The interruption of energy relations with Russia and the sanctions imposed on Russian energy have caused a severe crisis in the European energy market.
Despite the urgent need for alternatives and the worsening living conditions of European societies, the continuation of the war allows European governments to focus their attention on limiting Russia’s influence in Europe.
The refusal of Europeans to negotiate with Russia stems from the fear that any agreement would strengthen Moscow’s influence and return Europe to dependence on Russian energy sources.
Support for Ukraine is closely linked to American policy and to agreements in international markets, as well as the need of Europeans for economic stability in sectors such as tourism and exports.
European countries, especially those of the South and Eastern Europe, face enormous economic problems, yet the continuation of the war ensures that Ukraine remains a strategic ally against Russia, something with important implications for shaping a new economic and political landscape in the region.
Unbelievable profits for the European defense industry with the continuation of the war
The military conflict in Ukraine has triggered a rapid increase in defense spending in many European countries.
Russia, as a strategic adversary, activates mechanisms of weapons production and export, and the European defense industry, as well as military budgets, have benefited significantly from this conflict.
Many European countries, under pressure to strengthen their security, have increased their defense budgets.
Countries such as Germany and France, for example, have committed to investing billions of euros in upgrading their armies, developing new defense technologies, and strengthening their stockpiles. This increase in military spending significantly boosts the European defense industry.
The need for weapons, military equipment, and materials has accelerated orders for defense products from major companies such as Airbus Defence, BAE Systems, Thales, and others.
Moreover, Trump, beyond his office, is also a successful businessman, and he will not stop selling weapons to NATO states through which they will be channeled to Ukraine.
The production and export of defense systems and weapons have become a central element of European economic activity, with profits from the defense industry skyrocketing due to the growing interest in military equipment.
The need for strategic alliances has intensified, and many European countries have begun new cooperation agreements in the defense industry, including joint projects for developing new weapons, air defense systems, and technologies in the field of cybersecurity and space defense.
The war in Ukraine is of existential significance for Europe
Europe, despite its internal difficulties, views Ukraine as a critical front for maintaining its geopolitical influence and control in Eastern Europe.
Russia, with its expansionist policy, is considered not only a strategic threat to Ukraine, but also to Europe itself.
The continuation of the war and support for Ukraine strengthens resistance to Russian influence in the region and ensures that Russia will not return as a leading power in the area.
For European leaders, the continuation of the war in Ukraine is not only a matter of moral support or international law, but also a strategic tool for strengthening the European defense industry, reinforcing their alliances, and confronting the Russian threat.
Despite economic pressures and social reactions, the strategy for Ukraine remains crucial for the future influence and security of Europe in a reshaped international order.
United States interaction with Putin
Even if the United States wishes to reach an agreement with Russia through Trump, Putin appears to maintain a strategy combining war with diplomacy, while continuing to exploit the West’s inability to agree on ending the conflict.
While the United States and Europeans may see the achievement of a ceasefire as a way to reduce the cost of the conflict for themselves, Russia still desires to use Ukraine to consolidate its influence in the region, while simultaneously attempting to politically and economically isolate the West.
Russia has made clear that it will fulfill the objectives of the special military operation with weapons, while an unspoken goal is the capture of Odessa and full control over the new Ukrainian state after the end of the conflict.
The war in Ukraine will not end soon, despite the pressures exerted by various players, such as Trump and the United States, for a peace agreement.
Zelensky and European leaders appear determined to continue the fight despite contradictions and pressure.
This conflict does not concern only Ukraine and Russia, but has evolved into a battlefield for political influence and strategic interests of the United States and Europe, with Russia’s role remaining central in the geopolitical game.
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