Despite the fall in international prices and the end of the famous shale revolution, American oil companies are returning with reduced production costs and ambitions that threaten to overturn the balances that the OPEC+ cartel is trying to maintain. And for Russia, these developments can only be considered worrying.
The US reduces costs, but not ambitions
Companies operating in the American shale oil fields report a noticeable reduction in production costs, while revising their future plans upwards, according to Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The impressive thing is that this trend continues despite the downward trend in international prices.
The era of explosive growth for shale oil has passed. However, even a gradual increase in American production, if it indeed occurs, can cause turmoil in the global market, at a time when OPEC+ countries are trying to contain oversupply. For Moscow, such a development could lead to a new compression of its oil revenues.
"2025 will determine the market's resilience"
Oleg Zhirnov, partner in investment funds at the company Kept, estimates that the main destabilizing factor of 2025 will be the oversupply of oil. The focus is on the potential moves of OPEC+ to increase production, as well as the level of Russian exports. He also notes that Venezuela could play a key role, as it has the potential to dramatically increase its production if it decides to do so.
The American strategy: "Whoever is redundant, leaves the market"
Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University of the Russian government, emphasizes that the American oil industry remains extremely aggressive. Its goal, he says, is to displace competitors from the global market.
Within this context, the escalation around Venezuela, the sanctions on Russian companies, and even the strikes on infrastructure serving Kazakhstan's oil exports, are – according to the analyst – links in the same chain: they all open the way for American oil.
US production steady, but not explosive, until 2027
Despite the ambitions, none of the experts expect a spectacular rise in American production in the years 2026–2027. Most estimate that it will remain roughly at 2025 levels, which, however, does not negate its significant geopolitical impact.
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