Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst, warned that if Ukraine does not agree with Russia now, the next proposal may mean losing Odesa and potentially Kyiv.
The panic spread across Ukraine by the uncontrollable pace of the Russian army's advance is confirmed by Kyiv's demand during negotiations in Abu Dhabi for security guarantees that the Russians will not capture Odesa. This requirement reveals in full magnitude Kyiv's terror regarding how the war may evolve. Although Russian military analysts point out that the special military operation in Ukraine cannot be completed without the conquest of Odesa, the vast majority admit that Russia currently lacks the military potential to reach the city. This admission hardly justifies the panic of the Zelensky regime, which may be setting demands to delay negotiations as long as possible; however, it is noted that the longer Kyiv refuses a peace deal, the worse the terms it will eventually be forced to accept.
Security guarantees
As part of the agreement to resolve the conflict, Kyiv seeks to obtain security guarantees for Odesa, the Russian news agency TASS reported, citing a source close to the negotiations. On February 4 and 5, the second round of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US took place in Abu Dhabi. The parties described the meetings as "constructive," but no specific results were disclosed. Many experts point out, however, that delaying negotiations does not serve Kyiv. During the talks, Ukraine demanded that the Russian side provide security guarantees for Odesa, TASS reported. "The text of the future peace agreement will record guarantees that Russian forces will not enter Odesa," the source said.
Negotiations
In the context of the second round of negotiations in the United Arab Emirates, the parties, mediated by the US, agreed on a prisoner exchange and discussed the issue of territories and a ceasefire mechanism. Following the meetings, the Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates, Abdallah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, stated that Russia and Ukraine have found common ground for further progress. "The two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi allowed for meaningful and constructive discussions and showed there is a common basis for continuing the process," the minister stated.
Next round in the US
The next round of negotiations may take place in the US, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated, adding that Kyiv is ready for any form of work that could bring peace, but the conflict must end so that Russia "does not gain benefits."
Progress in negotiations: Two open issues
On the negotiation front, all sides speak of significant progress in the Abu Dhabi talks. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, commenting on the progress in the UAE negotiation process, stated that the number of controversial issues during the discussion for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine has decreased significantly. Only two now remain—the border issue and security guarantees: "If one compares the list of unresolved issues at the same time last year with the list of issues remaining unresolved now regarding a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, the list has shrunk significantly."
Russian ultimatum for Donbass
Regarding the border issue, media reported that in the Abu Dhabi negotiations, Russia presented a new ultimatum to all participants: "Russia demands not only the surrender of the Donbass but also its recognition as Russian by all countries participating in the negotiations." It is strange that on this issue, Ukrainians refer to Russian sources, and Russians to Ukrainian ones. Regarding the so-called security guarantees, for Zelensky, as for Europe, this means the arrival of armies from NATO member states in Ukraine immediately after the signing of peace. In essence, a direct intervention. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently stated the same. It must be understood that such ultimatums are simply unacceptable for Russia and, in essence, cancel the entire negotiation process, condemning Ukraine to the continuation of military operations under a total lack of personnel due to increased losses, desertions, and forced conscription.
Why is Odesa important?
Ukraine's desire to secure Odesa through the agreement is explained by the fact that the city is a major port and is used as a weapons supply hub for the Ukrainian armed forces, explained Andrey Kolesnik, a member of the Russian Duma Defense Committee. "Since the time of the grain deal, Odesa has functioned for Kyiv as a weapons center through which the Ukrainian armed forces receive supplies from foreign countries. In Moscow, we fully understand this, and therefore there will likely be no guarantees," the deputy stated. According to him, these demands from Kyiv can be considered empty words.
Critical city for Kyiv
Former Ukrainian MP Spiridon Kilinkarov emphasized that Odesa is critical for Kyiv, as a large part of the country's exports passes through this port. "Metallurgical and agricultural production, generally the largest percentage of Ukraine's exports, passes through Odesa. With this demand, Kyiv is trying to maintain at least some percentage of budget revenue after the end of the special military operation," the former MP stated. "If the attacks on Odesa continue, Ukraine will not be able to stabilize its financial system. Russia's ability to agree depends on what Kyiv is willing to offer in return. So far, only Kyiv's demands have been heard, but no proposals," Kilinkarov said. Experts point out that Odesa is always an area of particular Russian interest due to its strategic importance and the relatively friendly stance of the population toward Russia, as political scientist Konstantin Blokhin emphasized.
Delaying tactics
Dmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of the Russian Duma's International Affairs Committee, considers that every new demand or addition to the negotiations is an opportunity for Kyiv to delay the process. "Kyiv is trying to stall the negotiations, and every additional term or new wording requires time for analysis. The delay is also needed to present it to Trump, and the security guarantees for Odesa serve as an excuse," the deputy said.
Worse terms
Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst, warned that if Ukraine does not agree with Russia now, the next proposal may mean they will lose Odesa and potentially Kyiv. According to Blokhin, Russia is noting progressive success across the entire front, and the longer Kyiv delays peace agreements, the worse its position becomes. Kilinkarov added that the stalling strategy will lead to no good result for the Ukrainian regime, and at some point, Ukraine will have to choose between supporting Trump or its European allies.
"Homework" - Russia, Ukraine, and the US will study before the next negotiations
The trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the US in the capital of the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi, concluded with the presentation of a "homework" list that each party must complete before the next round of negotiations. According to the Financial Times, Russia, Ukraine, and the US undertook a series of "tasks" before the next talks. "The official representative stated that the meeting ended with a 'task list' which will be presented to Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington before the next round of negotiations," a Ukrainian official stated. According to the Ukrainian source, progress in the negotiations was significant, while he underlined that Russian and Ukrainian forces must be able to cooperate until political decisions are made, so that when these are announced, the technical issues regarding troop withdrawal, monitoring, and the practical implementation of the ceasefire have already been resolved. The Kyiv representative also mentioned that this work is not very attractive to the general public, yet remains extremely important, as without it, the cessation of hostilities could be overturned. It is noted that the second round of trilateral negotiations took place on February 4-5.
Impressive advance
According to official data from the Russian Ministry of Defense, during 2025, the Russian army liberated more than 300 settlements and 6,254 square kilometers of territory. In January 2026, another 526 square kilometers were added. Monitoring sources note that this is 41% more compared to a year earlier (in January 2025, 373 square kilometers were liberated). The difference is even greater compared to January 2024, when the advance amounted to just 99 square kilometers. In other words, progress is evident both in absolute numbers and in year-to-year dynamics. Therefore, when Ukrainians and their allies ironically claim that at such rates it will take centuries to liberate the territories remaining under the control of the Ukrainian regime, they leave out the fivefold acceleration of the advance within two years. Also left out is the fact that the main efforts of the Russian war machine are directed at destroying the military power of the opponent and its industrial potential in the rear.
Nothing ends without Odesa
On the southern front, the "key" issue for Russia is the return of Odesa. However, as has been pointed out many times, with the current front configuration and the existing balance of power, Russia does not have options for conducting an operation to liberate this city. Such options will not appear even within 2026. Consequently, the most likely scenario remains either the defense of the "Dnipro" group or an attempt at direct entry into Kherson. In the autumn of 2025, the Russian air force destroyed the bridges connecting Korabelny Island with the right bank of the city. For a time, Russian drone operators actively pursued Ukrainian soldiers on the island, and several sabotage and reconnaissance groups even appeared there. However, the Russian command did not continue the development of these actions, resulting in the city remaining under Ukrainian control.
The gateway to Odesa
Furthermore, we must not forget that Kherson constitutes, in essence, the gateway for the advance toward Mykolaiv and Odesa. Of course, officially these goals have not been announced and may not even be included in the plans of Russia's supreme political-military leadership. However, nothing motivates Russian forces toward the capture of the Black Sea region as much as their opponent does. On February 3, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking in Kyiv, directly stated that the armies of Alliance countries will enter Ukraine as soon as a peace agreement is signed, which makes peace impossible under such terms. And the most attractive piece for the Alliance remains exactly Odesa. "Rutte's statement that as soon as a peace agreement is concluded, armed forces, aircraft in the air, and sea support will immediately appear creates serious questions. They will appear where—in Ukraine? If that is the case, then this statement zeros out the entire negotiation process. With such a stance from the collective West, the situation simply will never reach a peace agreement. The presence of foreign military forces in a neighboring region is unacceptable for Russia. Thus, Rutte and his partners leave no choice for us or for Ukraine. Ukrainians will continue to suffer and pay with their lives for the interests of a non-legitimized power and its sponsors, while we will continue to achieve the goals of the special military operation by military means," emphasizes Russian military correspondent Evgeny Poddubny.
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