While clashes on the front remain uninterrupted, developments on the diplomatic field are expected to be rapid, as a strategic shift by Vladimir Putin is observed in the negotiations on Ukraine, replacing military representatives of the intelligence services with the political ideologue Vladimir Medinsky for the critical Geneva talks (17–18 February 2026).
This move, combined with the operation of an informal economic channel between Jared Kushner and Kirill Dmitriev, signals the transition from technical frontline details to a broad geo economic bargaining process between Moscow and Washington.
At the center lies a “deal of the century” that completely bypasses Ukrainian interests, offering Donald Trump the return of the dollar and access to Russian rare earths in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and the international legitimization of the new territorial realities.
The signal
The Russian delegation, led by Vladimir Medinsky, is heading to Geneva for a critical round of negotiations.
While some analysts downplay the move as a “non serious signal,” others perceive a transition to an entirely new level of international agreement.
The question remains: Are we witnessing the beginning of the end of the conflict, or is this a strategic pause before a new military escalation?
The talks of 17 and 18 February in Geneva acquire unprecedented weight due to the presence of Medinsky, a close aide to the Russian President and former Minister of Culture.
This change is structural.
In previous rounds in Abu Dhabi, the process was led by GRU chief Igor Kostyukov, focusing on technical military issues such as prisoner exchanges and humanitarian corridors.
Military negotiator, military agenda and the change of venue
The replacement of the intelligence services representative with a high ranking political figure of the presidential administration signals a clear shift.
Medinsky, as a Kremlin ideologue, is not traveling to Geneva for technical details, but to discuss frameworks, guarantees, and the principles of a future settlement.
The choice of Geneva, a traditional venue for Russia–United States strategic agreements, underscores this intention.
Despite objections from diplomats such as Michael McFaul, who considers Medinsky “non serious,” Trump’s team, represented by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is already at the table, favoring the direct communication channel.
At the same time, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled his meetings with European counterparts in Munich, giving clear priority to contacts with Moscow.
Meanwhile, Kirill Dmitriev conducts separate business discussions, while Dmitry Peskov signals the return of American companies to the Russian market and the restoration of transactions in dollars.
The deal of the century
In the background, the economic lever is activated.
The Kremlin tempts Washington with the “deal of the century,” the restoration of the dollar’s influence in Russia and access to critical resources in exchange for sanctions relief.
However, the unpredictable factor is China, as Putin would not risk a rupture with the eastern alliance for the sake of energy.
Colonel Andrey Pinchuk estimates that the withdrawal of the GRU from the talks proves that military mechanisms on the front have already been finalized.
From this point on, the meeting under Medinsky constitutes preparation for the final signing of political documents.
On the other hand, political analyst Sergey Markov sees a cautious restart of dialogue with Europe, where humanitarian and political issues will serve as a “prologue” to the restoration of the Europe–Russia axis.
Birth of a new geo economic reality
Geneva is transforming into the “assembly point” of a global agreement on three levels:
1) Political level: Transition from ceasefire to permanent neutrality of Ukraine and international recognition of new borders.
2) Economic level (Dmitriev–Kushner channel): Lifting of sanctions in exchange for United States access to Russian energy and rare earths. The return to the dollar constitutes the “golden prize” for Trump.
3) Humanitarian level: Use of cultural and humanitarian issues as a “lubricant” for public acceptance of difficult political decisions.
The war is definitively transforming into a geo economic bargaining process where Ukraine’s interests are entirely absent.
Peace appears to be “purchased” in exchange for American gains from Russian rare earths.
The real indicator of truth will not be the Geneva communiqués, but the front.
If after 18 February the intensity of the fighting visibly changes, then Medinsky indeed brought the blueprint for the finale.
Otherwise, Geneva will be recorded as yet another diplomatic episode without substance.
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