U.S. setback in Geneva as Iran rejects Trump ultimatum on nuclear and ballistic programs - What alarms the Pentagon

Iran appeared unexpectedly uncompromising during the negotiations that concluded late on the night of 26 February in Geneva, as the delegation of the Islamic Republic firmly rejected the American demand for indefinite abandonment of the nuclear program, counterproposing a “temporary” freeze of uranium enrichment.
At the same time, during the negotiations conducted through mediation, Iran made clear that it does not intend to abandon its ballistic program, while also raising the issue of lifting American sanctions.
Specifically, according to sources of Al Jazeera, Iran proposed a temporary freeze of uranium enrichment for a limited period during the negotiations with the United States.
“Our proposal confirms that we have a sovereign right to enrichment and we propose a temporary freeze of enrichment for a limited period,” the source stated, according to the television channel.
It had previously been reported that the United States, during negotiations with Iran on the nuclear program, is demanding the dismantling of the country’s three main nuclear facilities.
Indeed, Washington also insists on the transfer of all enriched uranium out of the country.

????? Iran has rejected ALL American demands in the Geneva nuclear talks — WSJ

The U.S. delegation, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, presented Iran with the following demands:

→ Destroy three primary nuclear facilities — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan
→ Transfer ALL… pic.twitter.com/eg72khE63e

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) February 26, 2026

In Vienna on 2 March the new round of Iranian-American “technical” talks

In the aftermath of the negotiations in Geneva, technical teams from Iran and the United States are launching new consultations in Vienna on Monday 2 March, with the next round of talks scheduled less than a week later, according to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
“It was decided that the technical teams will begin consultations in Vienna on Monday, at the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and with the participation of the organization’s experts,” the minister told Iranian media, after the latest round of indirect talks with the United States in Geneva.

According to him, the sides intend to align the technical aspects with the political demands.
“It was also decided that the next round of negotiations will take place very soon, possibly in less than a week,” noted Abbas Araghchi.

Iranian Foreign Minister: We held the most serious round of negotiations to date

The following are the statements given by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to journalists immediately after the conclusion of the talks in Geneva:
“Today I can say that one of the most serious and lengthy rounds of our negotiations took place. The meeting lasted approximately four hours in the morning and two hours in the afternoon.
These talks were conducted indirectly and with the mediation of the Foreign Minister of Oman, while at certain points Rafael Mariano Grossi also conveyed the discussions between the two sides.
His presence was useful from a technical standpoint. The Foreign Minister of Oman also played an active role, as in the past.
Overall, during these long and very intensive hours, good progress was made and we entered into a serious examination of the elements of an agreement, both in the nuclear field and in the field of sanctions.”

There are points where we have come very close

The Iranian Foreign Minister added: “On certain issues, the understandings have come very close. Of course, differences of opinion still exist, which is natural, but compared to the past, both sides are more serious regarding achieving a solution through negotiation.

It was agreed that, from Monday 2/3, technical teams in Vienna and at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will begin technical expert assessments in order to place certain technical issues within a specific framework and then adjust them to the demands and political assessments of the two sides.
It was also decided that the next round of negotiations will be held in the near future, most likely in less than a week.”

Axios: The United States assesses the Geneva talks positively

Members of the American delegation assessed the results of the third round of indirect talks with Iran in Geneva as positive, as reported by Axios journalist Barak Ravid, citing his own sources.
“A senior U.S. official told me that the talks on Iran’s nuclear program in Switzerland were positive,” he wrote on platform X.

Earlier, Barak Ravid, citing a source close to American diplomacy, had reported that the U.S. Special Envoy, Steven Witkoff, and businessman Jared Kushner appeared disappointed by the statements of the Iranian delegation during the morning segment of the negotiations in Geneva.

American analysts warn Trump of strategic fiasco in Iran

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump stated this week that the United States would “win easily” in a potential military confrontation with Iran.
However, recent activity on the territory of the Islamic Republic shows that any victory may be short-lived, as Bloomberg notes.
Satellite images reveal that the Pentagon would face an opponent determined to preserve its most strategic military and nuclear infrastructure.
Photographs from this month show Iranian engineers clearing debris from nuclear facilities damaged during the 12-day conflict with the United States and Israel in June, while simultaneously reinforcing key points for future defense.

The United States does not have munitions for a prolonged war in the Middle East, air defense is suffering

The U.S. military risks running out of munitions if the military campaign against Iran extends beyond a limited period, Politico in turn reveals, depicting the finite capabilities of the Pentagon for a long-duration war in the Middle East.
This shortage will primarily affect systems that are already in short supply.
Officials of the Pentagon and members of Congress are warning with increasing frequency that continued strikes against Iran could deplete U.S. military stockpiles, leaving the country more vulnerable.

Alarm by an American General over air defense shortages

According to a source familiar with the content of the discussions, General Dan Kaine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been expressing concerns since January about the lack of missile defense systems.
However, these concerns have intensified in recent weeks, as the Pentagon reinforces its forces in the Middle East on a scale not seen since the time of the war in Iraq.

As Donald Trump increasingly relies on military resources to achieve his foreign policy goals, stocks of SM-3, THAAD and Patriot interceptors have declined significantly this year.
Their replenishment requires time.

The wound of the American military-industrial complex

The defense industry has struggled for years to produce critical air defense consumables due to their complexity and the slow pace of production.
Interviews with six current and former U.S. officials, as well as members of Congress, reflect broad concern that any prolonged Iranian retaliatory strikes could “dry up” American air defense, Politico reports.

The shortage, it is noted, also arose in the context of previous generous deliveries of Patriot interceptors to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which raised questions in the United States as to whether Ukraine had been oversupplied.
While such questions were set aside at the time, they are now becoming pressing.

The real numbers are more... persistent than the Pentagon’s denials

The report notes that Congress recently authorized the Pentagon to enter into long-term contracts for munitions procurement, allowing manufacturers to secure investments in their industrial base while simultaneously reducing unit prices for each product.
For its part, the Department of Defense denied rumors of shortages, stating that it has sufficient supplies both for the present and for the future.

Bill in Congress blocks Trump intervention in Iran, “We are taking away his... button”

Developments are also taking place at the political level, as leaders of the Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives announced that they will bring before the House a bill that would require Donald Trump to seek the approval of Congress before attacking Iran.
“The Iranian regime is brutal and destabilizing, as was most recently evident in the killing of thousands of protesters,” the Democrats said in their statement.
“However, waging a war of choice in the Middle East, without full understanding of all the attendant risks to our armed forces members and the risk of escalation, is reckless.”

Lawmakers will bring the War Powers Resolution to the floor through a procedure known as “force the vote,” gathering support for the bill through a discharge petition, despite the opposition of the Republican Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.

Trump’s veto and the message to Khamenei

If the bill passes, it will then have to be approved by the Senate, which is controlled by the Republicans, before reaching the President’s desk.
Donald Trump is considered almost certain to use his authority to veto it and block it.
Congress can override the veto with a two-thirds majority in the House and the Senate, but opponents of a war with Iran do not appear to have the necessary votes to do so.
Nevertheless, the passage of the War Powers Resolution would send a strong message of opposition by Congress and public opinion to an armed conflict with Iran.

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