US faces "Pearl Harbor" defeat as Iran secures "Checkmate" power in Hormuz

The impasse facing US President Donald Trump in the war with Iran is beginning to take on dangerous and massive proportions. It has now become clear to more and more American officials that the US lacks further "tools" to exert pressure on Iran to force it to accept a deal on American terms that would lead to the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz. It is characteristic that Trump, despite his threats of a new large-scale military operation, is expected to ask for help from his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, during their talks in Beijing to pressure Iran for a peace deal that includes opening Hormuz. Many analysts—Americans, in fact—argue that the US is facing an irreversible situation, speaking of an absolute defeat reminiscent of Pearl Harbor and Vietnam. At the same time, it is estimated that Iran has made a checkmate move. Not only did it withstand the military operations of the superpower, but it is now one of the most important global players, holding control over the Straits of Hormuz. For this reason, it is pointed out that the failure of President Trump's strategy will boomerang not only for the US and Trump but also for Israel, with all that this implies for the "hot region" of the Middle East.

Toward absolute defeat

Robert Kagan, one of the best-known neoconservative voices in the United States and a long-time supporter of Israel, warned that Washington is heading toward an "absolute defeat" in the war with Iran—a failure that, he argues, "can neither be fixed nor ignored". In an article in "The Atlantic," Kagan noted that the damage caused by the conflict can no longer be reversed. "There will be no return to the previous status quo, nor any final American victory that will undo or transcend the damage done," the American analyst points out. Kagan, co-founder of the neoconservative think tank Project for the New American Century in 1997, was among the figures who shaped the doctrine of American military power projection globally. This doctrine culminated in the 2003 invasion of Iraq and deeply influenced the George W. Bush administration. He remained closely linked to that political environment, including through his wife, Victoria Nuland, who served as an advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, one of the most significant representatives of the neoconservatives. For years, Kagan defended American interventionist policy, making his current warning even more striking.

Iran as a global player

In his analysis, he argues that control of the Straits of Hormuz has radically changed the balance of power in the region. "With control of the Straits, Iran emerges as a key player in the region and one of the most important players globally," Kagan noted. As he says, the war has not only strengthened rivals like China and Russia but has also weakened the global prestige of the United States. "Instead of proving American power, as war supporters repeatedly argued, the conflict revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. This will cause chain reactions around the world as friends and foes adjust to the US failure," the American analyst stated.

It is like... Pearl Harbor

Kagan warned that President Donald Trump now has limited options for opening the Straits of Hormuz, suggesting that Washington may have exhausted its influence. He even likened the current crisis to some of the most traumatic moments in American military history, such as the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 and the Vietnam War. Unlike those cases, however, he estimates that this time the United States may not be able to recover. "Defeat for the United States is not just possible—it is probable," emphasized Kagan, who argued that Iran's ability to withstand American pressure leaves Washington with few realistic options without causing severe damage to Gulf economies and the global economic system.

Checkmate in Hormuz

"If this isn't checkmate, then it's very close," Kagan added, estimating that Tehran is unlikely to relinquish control of the Straits of Hormuz, which he described as a powerful strategic lever of pressure. "Iran cannot allow itself to lose the Straits, no matter how good it thought a deal would be. And furthermore, how reliable can any deal with Trump be?" Kagan wondered.

Warning to Israel

In a separate interview with PBS, Kagan extended his warning to Israel, arguing that the war could evolve into a serious boomerang for one of Washington's closest allies. "This war has the potential to end in an extremely catastrophic way for Israel, precisely because influence and the balance of power in the region will shift away from the United States and Israel and toward Iran and its supporters," the analyst stated.

Trump should expect nothing from China

Trump should not expect much, as China is not going to "jeopardize its relationship with Iran," argues Mohamad Elmasry, professor of Media Studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. As he says, Washington knows it will not receive meaningful help from China to end the war with Iran, as Beijing seeks to maintain strong ties with Tehran. "I think China, although affected to some extent, is in a much better position than many other global players," Elmasry told Al Jazeera, adding that Beijing has managed to find "alternative solutions" to the disruptions in the Straits of Hormuz. "The most important thing is that I don't believe the Chinese are willing to risk the relationship they have with Iran. They are not exactly allies, but it is a kind of strategic partnership. They see it as an important counterweight to American hegemony in the region. And I don't think they are willing to hand the region over to the US and Israel," Elmasry underlined.

Iran is not going to surrender

In fact, Elmasry states he is certain that the Iranians "are not going to surrender" to the US because they are fighting an "existential battle". Elmasry estimates that Trump has overestimated the influence he possesses over Iran and will ultimately be led to a "deal" through negotiations. "For the Iranians, this is an existential battle, and I think we have all now seen that there is no real military solution for the Straits of Hormuz. There will have to be a negotiated solution, whether China plays a role or not. The main problem here is that Trump still believes he has great influence over the Iranians and thus treats the situation like a battle," Elmasry continued. "He is a fighter who believes his opponent is ready to buckle, ready to surrender. But the Iranians are not going to surrender. They believe they have more influence in this specific situation," Elmasry points out, emphasizing: "There is no easy way out for Trump".

China intervention in Pakistan: Accelerate US-Iran negotiations to open Hormuz

The Chinese Foreign Minister is asking Pakistan to intensify mediation efforts between Iran and the US. China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, called on Islamabad, through his Pakistani counterpart Mohammad Ishaq Dar, to step up mediation efforts aimed at helping to reopen the Straits of Hormuz, according to the Xinhua news agency. During a phone call, Dar informed Wang of Pakistan's recent mediation initiatives between the US and Iran and thanked China for its support. At the same time, he expressed hope for increased coordination between the two countries, Xinhua reported. Wang praised Pakistan for facilitating talks and for its contribution to extending the temporary truce. China's top diplomat also expressed hope that Islamabad would maintain its confidence and contribute to restoring peace in the region, according to Xinhua. Wang stated that China will continue to support Pakistan's mediation efforts and will contribute itself in this direction.

Message from Iran: Stable oil production despite war and naval blockade

Another message of strength is sent by Iran... via the US Department of Energy. Specifically, the American Department of Energy announced that Iran's oil production remains stable despite the war and the naval blockade. According to a report by the Iranian news agency Tasnim, based on a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is under the US Department of Energy, after the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, the average reduction in oil production for Persian Gulf countries in April exceeded 10.5 million barrels per day—meaning a reduction of 42% was recorded. In contrast, Iran lost only about 230,000 barrels per day from its production, which corresponds to a decrease of about 7%. According to the same report, the drop in oil production in the region's countries accelerated in April. In March, the total production decrease for Gulf countries had reached 8.92 million barrels per day, while for April it is estimated that losses amounted to 10.54 million barrels per day. Despite American claims of imposing a naval blockade on Iran, the data from the US Department of Energy itself shows that Iran had proportionally the smallest reduction in oil production in the region during the months of March and April. Specifically:

• Iran's production decreased by 130,000 barrels per day in March.

• In April, the decrease reached 230,000 barrels per day. The US Department of Energy also predicts that in May, further reduction of oil production in Persian Gulf countries will continue and that total losses will amount to 10.75 million barrels per day.

Total oil production in the Persian Gulf region:

• February production: 25.2 million barrels per day.

• Production decrease in March: 8.92 million barrels per day.

• Production decrease in April: 10.54 million barrels per day.

• Forecasted decrease for May: 10.75 million barrels per day. By maintaining over 93% of its production capacity, Iran has turned into one of the few stable oil suppliers in Western Asia.

Kazem Gharibabadi (Iran Deputy FM): The US rejected our proposal because it was not a letter of surrender

The United States rejected Iran's latest peace proposal only because "it was not a letter of surrender," stated a senior Iranian diplomat, arguing that Washington seeks to impose its will through intimidation and pressure instead of building real peace. "True peace cannot be built with the language of humiliation, threats, and forced imposition," said Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for political affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, in a social media post. US President Donald Trump rejected the peace plan presented by Tehran on Sunday to end the war, describing it as "completely unacceptable". "When the side that participated directly in the war, the blockade, the sanctions, and the threats through brute force rejects Iran's response only because it is not a letter of surrender, it becomes clear that the real issue is not peace, but the imposition of political will through threats and pressure," the Iranian official stated.

Iran's "minimum requirements"

Gharibabadi reiterated Tehran's core principles for any sustainable agreement. "The Islamic Republic of Iran has emphasized clear principles: permanent end to the war and prevention of its recurrence, reparations for damages, lifting of the blockade, abolition of illegal sanctions, and respect for Iran's rights". "These are not maximalist demands; they are the minimum conditions for any serious and sustainable agreement, in accordance with the United Nations Charter, to end a crisis that began with the illegal recourse to force," the Iranian official added.

Contradictions in the American stance

The Iranian official also accused Washington of a contradictory policy. "One cannot talk about a ceasefire while continuing the blockade. Talking about diplomacy while intensifying sanctions, or discussing regional stability while providing political and military support to a regime that is a source of aggression and instability," said Gharibabadi, stating that "such an approach is not negotiation, it is the continuation of a policy of coercion with diplomatic phrasing".

Critical BRICS Summit

And while the critical talks of presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will be underway in Beijing, the BRICS states meet tomorrow, Thursday 14/5, and will try to achieve consensus on the war in the Persian Gulf. The war of the US and Israel against Iran is expected to be a serious test for the meeting of BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), as the question arises whether the bloc can reach a joint position since states in opposing camps of the conflict will participate in the Summit. Although BRICS initially started with five countries, in recent years they expanded to also include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. According to information, Iran asked India—which will assume the presidency of the organization in 2026 and is hosting the upcoming meeting—to form a joint position among members to condemn American and Israeli attacks against Tehran. However, disagreements have already appeared, as the United Arab Emirates are considered to be on the opposite side of the conflict. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in New Delhi later today for the meeting, which will take place on May 14 and 15. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is also expected to participate in the summit. China will be represented by its ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, as Foreign Minister Wang Yi is not expected to travel due to Donald Trump's visit to Beijing.

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