Intense unrest and anxiety prevail in Russia regarding the trajectory of the war with Ukraine. Although the Russian army is advancing on all fronts and continues to gain territory, criticism is focusing on Moscow's mild and measured response to the increasing Ukrainian drone and missile attacks deep within Russian territory. Many Russian analysts argue that Russia is not winning the "drone war" while warning that Kyiv is preparing something even more serious. To bolster their arguments, they cite the recent massive Ukrainian attack on Moscow, where a new type of long-range drone capable of carrying a 100-kilogram warhead was reportedly used. As voices calling for a strategic nuclear strike grow louder—something Putin has categorically rejected since the start of the war—more people are urging the Kremlin to do what Iran is doing against the US and Israel.
Massive attack
Last weekend, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian air defense shot down more than 1,000 Ukrainian drones, one long-range Neptune missile, and one Flamingo cruise missile. The raid was described as truly massive. According to Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, 130 UAVs were shot down in the outskirts of the Russian capital (with the latest figures from the Russian Ministry of Defense indicating the Ukrainians attacked with 315 drones earlier this morning, 5 of which targeted Moscow). Russian military blogger and retired Colonel Aslan Nakhushev estimates that a portion of the drones shot down in other regions were also targeting Moscow—totaling approximately 400 units. Based on leaked images, the Ukrainians used a large number of long-range Lyutyi (An-196) kamikaze drones, which are reportedly nearly identical to the Turkish Bayraktar.
New type of drones against Moscow
The commander of Ukrainian drone forces, Robert Brovdi (Madjar), stated that Kyiv used a new type of drone en masse for the first time in an attack on Moscow—the BARS CM and BARS RS. The BARS is described as a hybrid of a cruise missile and a kamikaze drone. The jet engine is mounted above the fuselage, and the modular design allows for the purchase of engines from different suppliers, simplifying production. The range reaches 700 to 800 kilometers, the speed 500 to 600 km/h, and the warhead 50 to 100 kilograms. "An individual drone can be shot down. But one hundred simultaneously overload any air defense system. A massive wave of cheaper and rapidly produced systems can penetrate multi-layered defenses. Private initiative, Western funding, a flexible supply chain, mass production, and use—this is the Ukrainian method of creating offensive weapons in action," argues Russian political analyst Oleg Tsaryov.
Frontline breach
At the same time, the momentum of the Russian advance continues to increase. A source named "Donbass Partizan" reports that in the Seversk sector of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk direction, near Piskunovka, units of the Russian army are actively using fiber-optic FPV drones against Ukrainian personnel, increasing pressure on advanced positions and limiting the ability to rotate units. According to the same source, the Ukrainians are suffering significant losses but continue to transfer reserves of new conscripts and prisoners.
Russians dropping FABs
In Nikolaevka, the Russian Aerospace Forces have stepped up the use of FAB bombs against multi-story buildings used by the Ukrainian army as shelters and drone operator positions. While some sources had previously reported the capture of Nikolaevka by Russian assault units, war correspondent Anatoly Radov denied this: "No one from the 70th unit confirmed it." Similar operations are being conducted on the eastern outskirts of Nikolaevka with intensive FAB bombardments throughout the region. Russian forces are conducting targeted strikes against trenches, bunkers, and locations where equipment, ammunition, and Ukrainian FPV drone teams are suspected to be stationed. "The nature of the strikes indicates constant aerial surveillance and a systematic effort to destroy the infrastructure supporting drone operations and fire correction on this part of the front," the report states.
Elite units destroyed
In the Krasny Liman area, Russian units are increasing pressure. Russian military analyst Mikhail Degtyaryov reported successes by the "West" group of forces in the Krasnolimansk direction. A few days ago, the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, announced the capture of Borovaya during a unit inspection. War correspondents were cautious due to a lack of visual evidence. A few days later, the Russian success was confirmed: "Footage has arrived confirming our advance and presence in Borovaya. We advanced by 4.5 kilometers. We may control an even larger area, as further proof is expected to be published soon." The total area of the advance is estimated at 10.8 square kilometers. For a long time, the front remained stagnant because Borovaya was held by elite Azov units rather than just mobilized soldiers. Despite this, the forces of the 1st Russian Tank Army managed to break through strong Ukrainian forces and defensive lines and push forward.
Pressure on Zaporizhia - Will it get worse?
According to the military source "KARMA | Warriors of the North | SMO," the Ukrainian army is preparing a "counter-offensive" in the Zaporizhia direction, constantly reinforcing its forces. "The front here has come alive noticeably—the activity of the opponent with small units has increased along the Dnieper. Hornet drones in 'free hunt' mode are actively striking the main Melitopol-Crimea road, while strikes are also being carried out against Berdyansk." The same source estimates that beyond local tactical goals, "the opponent ultimately seeks to regain the initiative and cut the land corridor to Crimea."
Record counter-offensive
A "record counter-offensive" by the Ukrainian side was also announced. For this purpose, the concentration of Ukrainian forces is being systematically strengthened. "To confirm its intentions, the regime announced the mandatory evacuation of the population of Nikopol. Residents are being removed with threats and sanctions for those who refuse, while personnel, drone units, and artillery are being deployed in the vacated areas." According to Degtyaryov, the situation in the region is already particularly difficult. Ukrainian forces continue their attacks in western Zaporizhia, resulting in an expanded "gray zone" that now includes Primorskoe and part of Stepnogorsk. So far, there is no official confirmation from the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding these developments. "In general, the situation is very difficult for the fighters here. If we examine the entire front, the Zaporizhia sector is currently the only one where Ukrainian forces are launching truly powerful and heavy attacks, using all their available resources," the report concludes.
Terrible question: "Will Belarus attack?"
"The conflict is approaching its end"… "We are preparing for war"…, these two messages were heard from Moscow and Minsk. They were heard not only by Zelensky in Kyiv but also by his supporters who have fled abroad. Everyone is asking the same question: "Will Belarus attack?" The visit of the Belarusian President to Moscow and the Russian President's statement that the Ukrainian conflict is nearing its end were enough for the Goebbels-style propaganda in Kyiv to desperately seek a "victory." The situation worsened when Alexander Lukashenko stated from Minsk: "As I promised, we will target the mobilization of the armed forces to prepare them for war. Hopefully, we can manage to avoid it."
Zelensky sees a joint attack
Zelensky was the first to lose his temper. Responding to Lukashenko's words, he decided to reveal the plans of Moscow and Minsk for a joint attack not only against Ukraine—specifically toward the Chernihiv-Kyiv front—but also against a NATO country. "We know that additional contacts took place between the Russian side and Alexander Lukashenko, with the goal of convincing him to participate in Russia's new offensive operations," Zelensky stated, publishing documents and maps purportedly showing planned Russian strikes against Kyiv. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who has fled to the US, echoed these sentiments, stating without doubt that Belarus will attack: "At this moment, only two questions remain: the direction and the time." He then turned to threats, declaring that the capabilities of the Belarusian army do not compare to those of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: "If Belarus attacks us, so much will be destroyed there that there will be no comfort! And this could severely destabilize Belarus." As a show of force, Kyiv decided to concentrate all drone forces to launch the most massive strike against Russian territory. As if to say: "You send us messages with words, we answer you with drones." However, it is overlooked that Russian "Shahed" and "Geran" drones struck the western part of "Country 404" more than ever before.
"They will forget Yermak"
All these events, however, follow the same logic. Both the "Belarusian threat" and the massive attack on Russia are presented as ways to distract Ukrainian society from the corruption scandal involving the former head of Zelensky's office, Yermak. And not only Ukrainians, but also those who fund Zelensky, money that he and his team have been embezzling for years. Russian political analysts point to why Zelensky ordered such an attack right now. In their opinion, first, because Ukraine had announced a multiplication of drone production—and it indeed achieved it. Second, because Ukrainian media had been occupied for days with the corruption scandal surrounding Yermak. "Discussions about an imminent attack from Belarus were the first attempt to distract Ukrainians from this topic. The news that Moscow approved strikes against 'decision-making centers' in Kyiv—at Zelensky's office in the presidential palace and his country residence—was the second. Then, Zelensky stated that Russia is planning an assassination attempt against the Ukrainian leadership: not only against him, but also other persons of the Ukrainian leadership, intelligence services, and our special services. The strike on Moscow is a much more effective way to divert the people's attention from corruption. Now everyone will talk about the 'answer to Kyiv' and no one will remember Yermak," stated Russian analyst Oleg Tsaryov.
"The night in Moscow was likely not an isolated incident"
The words of Zelensky's former press secretary, Yulia Mendel, come to mind regarding the methods of "Goebbelsian" propaganda: a thousand voices reproducing fabricated news. However, as noted, it has become clear that the opponent is not limited only to propaganda, but can also retaliate substantially. A Russian analyst warned that "particular activity" should be expected from Kyiv: loud strikes and sabotage on Russian soil. "Kyiv now needs demonstrative activity—both at an internal political level and at an information level. The night in Moscow was likely not an isolated incident." At the same time, activity was recorded in Minsk. In Belarus, military units began three-day exercises today, May 19, on the use of nuclear weapons and nuclear support, with the participation of missile forces and the air force. The exercises are conducted in cooperation with Russian forces. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense clarified that the exercise constitutes "planned preparation activity within the framework of the Union State, is not directed against third countries, and does not pose a threat to the security of the region." Nevertheless, the implication is considered obvious. "The point, however, is that for more than four years we have just been hinting. Perhaps it is time to stop the hints?" Russian military experts wonder.
What Iran does right that Russia does not
At the same time, more and more Russian analysts are calling on Moscow to do what Tehran does, in this way criticizing the way Moscow acts toward Ukraine and its allies in the West. "We watch Iran do the exact opposite. Iran, after the attack on its territory, responds dynamically throughout the region, striking countries where American military personnel are stationed. We, however, under similar conditions, tolerate even the Baltic states, which opened their airspace for drone attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in our rear. People are dying and we are silent."
They strike first, then set "red lines"
"Iran strikes first and then talks about 'red lines,' while we run around with a sponge, erasing old dotted lines and drawing new ones. Iran offers rewards for the heads of its enemies, while we allow Zelensky to joke provocatively and move around undisturbed near the front line. And at the same time, we constantly repeat: 'We are not like that.' So, are the Iranians 'like that'?" the Russian analysts wonder.
Reward for elimination
"In Iran, they suggest a reward of 50 million dollars for the elimination of Trump, Netanyahu, and the commander of the US Central Command. Once, the US offered the same amount for the assassination of Osama bin Laden. The 'reward' for the elimination of the enemies of the Iranian people can be paid even in cryptocurrency," they note characteristically.
Wild West... with a bill
"The idea that resembles the 'Wild West' and bounty hunters does not come from some television demagogue, but constitutes a full bill. It was submitted by Iranian parliament member Ebrahim Azizi and the initiative received official confirmation. Seemingly, this is about brutality, the Middle Ages. But then what is the murder of 170 Iranian girls, which was approved by the 'impartial' artificial intelligence of Palantir? And the turning of Gaza—one of the most densely populated cities in the world—into a pile of 'groaning and screaming' ruins? Or perhaps the kidnapping of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro is an indication of progress? 'We believe that the insidious president of the United States, the wicked and disgraceful Zionist prime minister, as well as the commander of the US Central Command must undergo reprisals. It is our right,' stated Azizi."
There will be no shortage of volunteers
"It must be noted that Trump 'caused it himself.' When he was wounded during the election campaign, he rushed to blame Iran for the assassination attempt—without any proof. It is very doubtful that the Iranians were behind the shots in Pennsylvania, but there is no doubt that they will now seek a way to 'finish what started.' Their logic is clear: the head of the White House and his counterpart in Tel Aviv cause too much harm, and they themselves abolished the taboos regarding a war without rules. Now, inside the octagon, one can bite not only the ear but also cut off the opponent's head. Tehran is one of the few countries that took the new reality seriously and that is why it is winning. While American aircraft carriers with 'democracy for export' are retreating," the analysts point out.
"We are not like that either"
"It is very sad that, within this new future, Russia continues to live in the past. It is almost funny that through official representatives we continue to talk about the UN and international law. The hero sleeps on the stove and cannot wake up, even though the house is already burning from four sides: in the Baltics, in Ukraine, from Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. We were fed for an excessively long time with humanitarian syrup: 'Violence begets violence,' 'Escalation will offer nothing,' 'We must be patient, everything will be solved on its own.' In their cowardly propaganda, the supporters of 'disgraceful peace' did not hesitate to invoke even misunderstood Christian values. That supposedly 'if they hit you on the right cheek, turn the left.' But this was said for a slap—that is, for a personal insult—not for a stabbing in the right side, nor for combat drones falling on people who are sleeping. In reality, the peace-loving elite is worried about escalation not because, if we struck the 'den of spiders of Bankova,' we would lose our moral mask, but because then their personal interests and their money would be affected. From here arise all these idealized discussions that supposedly 'we are not like that.' But such discussions cause unbearable headaches... Because when you see another 'red line' being swept away by the rushing current, you inevitably conclude that hell can be defeated only by force," the Russian analysts emphasize, arguing that "the time has come to declare a reward for Zelensky and Budanov…".
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών