The European shipping and geopolitical chessboard enters an extremely dangerous phase, where economic sanctions convert gradually into an operational conflict at sea.
The head of European foreign policy Kaja Kallas announced during an informal meeting of Defense Ministers in Cyprus, on June 8, that EU warships are now given the capability of boarding tankers carrying sanctioned Russian oil in the Mediterranean.
According to her, the EU naval forces have already started inspections, while the new framework is integrated into the effort of "limiting the activities of Russia" and exchanging "best practices" among member-states.
The boardings on the so-called "shadow tankers" will take place within the framework of operation Operation IRINI, which had originally been established in 2020 for the enforcement of the arms embargo on Libya, but has now been adjusted so as to serve also the enforcement of economic countermeasures against Russia.
Nevertheless, the 27 member-states participating in the mission have not yet positioned themselves officially.
At the same time, Russia moves toward full militarization.
Moscow adopted a new framework regarding immunity from foreign jurisdiction and Vladimir Putin signed amendments to the laws "On Defense" and "On Citizenship of the Russian Federation", allowing the president to use the Russian armed forces abroad for the "protection of Russian citizens" who are arrested or prosecuted by foreign or international courts.
Moscow prepares now, as it reports, for the "countering of declared piracy", with most vessels of the shadow fleet carrying flags of convenience (Panama, Gabon, Liberia), but being connected with Russian shipowners.
The new Russian legislation is no longer based on the flag of the vessel but on the nationality of the crew, creating an extremely dangerous precedent.
In this context, any boarding of European special forces on a tanker protected by Russian forces or private security teams can be considered an "attack", giving a right for the use of lethal force.
The most worrying element concerns the potential geographical expansion of the measure.
Although the decision concerns the Mediterranean, it is estimated that soon it can expand to the Baltic Sea, which has already converted into a de facto "internal sea of NATO".
For Russia, this is a critical corridor toward Kaliningrad and a basic export artery from the ports Primorsk and Ust-Luga.
Already incidents of tension are recorded, with the case of the Russian natural gas transport vessel Arctic Metagaz being the most characteristic, where the crew was evacuated after an attack.
The Russian Ministry of Transport characterized the incident "maritime piracy", accusing moreover Ukraine and attributing "complicity" to countries of the EU.
France appears particularly active in the seizures of tankers, having already proceeded to four arrests, while Britain recently refused to intercept vessels of the shadow fleet in the English Channel.
At the same time, the Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean is reinforced by forces stationed in Tartus of Syria.
The angry reaction of Russia
Commenting on the situation, Svetlana Zhurova, first deputy chairperson of the Committee on International Affairs of the State Duma, questioned that the new measures could cause serious damage to Moscow and warned of potential consequences for the European countries themselves.
"Look, all this will still have to be proven and it will be necessary to come into conflict with those countries [that transport oil under their flags]. This means that the sanctions are not imposed on Russia, in general terms. And I probably admit that they take this oil too. Therefore, they will make things worse only for their own companies and their own citizens. Especially since we already have partnerships and trade with other countries, and whether these other countries sell it somewhere is clearly not our concern," she herself explained.
In his turn, Konstantin Basyuk, deputy chairman of the Committee on Defense and Security of the Federation Council, expressed a similar estimation.
He believes that the decision for the detention of the tankers in the Mediterranean increases the risk of further escalation also in Southeastern Europe and complicates the prospects of restoration of relations in the future.
"The decision aims not so much at the Russian economy, as at the prospects of restoration of normal relations and the building of a sustainable peace in the future. Every attempt at shifting economic competition into the field of forceful pressure all it does is deepen distrust and increase the risk of further escalation," Basyuk emphasized.
He stated also that Europe chooses more and more confrontation instead of searching for long term security mechanisms.
"If this aggressive Russophobic course continues, the consequences could move far beyond trade disputes and sanctions. History shows that the systematic accumulation of hostility between states can ultimately lead to new conflicts on the European continent," Basyuk concluded.
Urgent measures for the shielding of the tankers by Moscow
It is reminded, that in March, the Russian Shipping Council developed additional measures for the protection of vessels operating in the interest of Moscow.
The decisions were taken in a meeting under the chairmanship of the assistant of Putin, Nikolai Patrushev.
"Additional measures have been developed for the neutralization of terrorist threats against vessels departing from Russian ports. Measures were proposed for the safeguarding of the sovereign rights of Russia in the oceans, the freedom of navigation, and the protection of vessels registered under the Russian flag," the office of the council reported.
According to Patrushev, certain of the initiatives that had been proposed previously have already received the support of the president and are implemented.
A guide for ship owners and managers has been developed regarding the interaction with the administrations of sea ports and the navy.
This applies mainly to the Azov-Black Sea basin and the Baltic Sea.
He noted also that the Navy safeguards the security of navigation, the increased surveillance of vessels transporting cargoes in the interest of Russia, while the captains of the ports have been given the capability to organize mobile fire groups for the escort of vessels with a Russian flag.
Instability has now become the new "constant"
Global shipping has ceased to confront geopolitical crises as temporary and isolated events. On the contrary, the leaderships of the sector adjust to a continuous environment of tension and uncertainty, where conflicts and threats constitute now a permanent element of business reality.
In recent years, successive crises, from the war in Ukraine and the attacks of the Houthis in the Red Sea to the tensions in the Straits of Hormuz, have brought issues of safety of seafarers and freedom of navigation to the center of the strategy of shipping companies.
At the recent Posidonia conference in Athens, top executives of the sector underlined that the current environment is characterized by unprecedented complexity.
Tim Wilkins, CEO of Intertanko, noted that the particularity of the current period is the simultaneous appearance of multiple crises. It is no longer about local or isolated tensions, but about an overall challenge to the international framework of rules, something that forces the sector to adopt a new way of operation.
This shift is captured also in the directives of international organizations. BIMCO issued new guidelines for passages through the Straits of Hormuz, with detailed preparation lists for extreme scenarios such as missile and drone attacks, GPS jamming, minings, or boarding attempts. The shipowners now plan on the basis of all potential contingencies, so as to reduce the risk of losses of human lives and vessels.
The geopolitical tension has converted the sea into a field of increased risk. As Svein Ringbakken of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Insurance Association stressed, shipping is found today in the crosshairs in many and different points of the world, from the Arctic to the South China Sea.
From his side, Nikos Triantafyllakis of W Marine pointed out that a rapid rearrangement of global power is taking place, which has become the new normality, with vessels converting into tools of pressure and influence.
Beyond the armed conflicts, particular concern causes also the so-called Russian shadow fleet, a network of hundreds of tankers operating outside international standards and controls. Its existence has destabilized intensely the market of tankers and the global regulatory framework, with impacts that are expected to have a long term character.
The speed of developments mandates continuous adjustment.
The shipping companies are called to reinforce their flexibility both in the fleet and in decision-making and in their technological infrastructure.
In the daily routine of ship managers dominate the sudden changes of regulations and sanctions, the need for avoidance of dangerous areas, and the shortages of fuels leading to continuous redesigns of routes.
All this uncertainty directly affects also investment decisions, with certain large companies, such as Star Bulk Carriers, delaying new orders of vessels so as to maintain liquidity.
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