Strategic reserves kept off the market to plunge Russia into energy panic
Can an oil superpower suddenly run out of gasoline? Can the vast "gas station," as the Americans have called Russia in the past, have no fuel? This is the image prevailing in Russia today, pointing more to a country under collapse rather than the third-largest oil power on the planet. Kilometers-long queues at gas stations, arguments between drivers, and rationing even for government officials. However, an explosive scenario is gaining ground in Moscow: is the fuel crisis not a result of a shortage, but of an organized internal sabotage operation aimed at presenting Russia in a state of energy suffocation and triggering a social explosion? Two versions are circulating about what is happening. Both are extremely ominous.
Kilometers-long queues form at gas stations, with cars starting even half a kilometer before the pumps, completely blocking the right traffic lane. If a week ago in an average Russian city of over one million residents one could refuel relatively quickly during the night, now the queues exist 24 hours a day. The authorities took a series of measures: they adjusted the rules of the fuel exchange, banned fuel exports, and relaxed certain technological requirements for refineries. At the same time, stations selling gasoline for 200 rubles or more per liter face fines. Just a few days ago, antitrust authorities identified six "offending stations" in the Kuban region. However, not even these measures yielded results. The increased demand creates the corresponding supply.
Three hours of waiting for cheap gasoline
Those wishing to refuel at the stations of the major networks (the so-called VINK) paying about 60 rubles per liter for AI-92 gasoline must wait up to three hours in traffic. At private gas stations, there is the option to fill the tank without waiting, but only with cash and at a multiplied price. Neither bank transfers nor electronic payments are accepted—only cash.
"Stop driving – Put the cars in the garage"
Regional governors, who are essentially trapped in this situation since very little depends on them, are trying in various ways to persuade citizens to limit their movement. The Governor of the Leningrad oblast, Alexander Drozdenko, ordered that regional government service vehicles be subjected to the same refueling limit that applies to local residents. A similar initiative was taken by the Governor of the Stavropol Krai, Vladimir Vladimirov, who called on state officials to use bicycles or even travel on foot. "From tomorrow, please, leave the service cars behind. We have consumed enough of the gasoline and diesel that are already in short supply," he characteristically stated.
Armed incidents at gas stations
The Governor of the Vladimir oblast, Alexander Avdeev, called on citizens to consume fuel "with restraint." For his part, the Governor of the Rostov oblast, Yuri Slyusar, criticized drivers, arguing that they are "going wild" in the queues of the service stations. To prevent further incidents, it was decided that Cossacks and volunteers would patrol the local stations. In Chelyabinsk, there was even an incident involving gunfire at a gas station. A driver attempted to bypass the queue. When confronted, he pulled out a non-lethal traumatic pistol and began shooting at the man who reprimanded him. According to eyewitnesses who wrote on social media, a bullet hit the victim in the abdomen. The injured man was taken to the hospital by ambulance, while the perpetrator was arrested and a criminal case was opened against him.
Governors clash with energy giants
Several governors are not limiting themselves to general appeals but are clashing openly with the major federal fuel companies. The Governor of the Lipetsk oblast, Igor Artamonov, accused Rosneft, Lukoil, and Gazpromneft of unfair behavior. As he argued, company representatives assure that they will secure sufficient fuel quantities for everyone, but in practice, drivers arrive at the stations only to find them closed. Nevertheless, the initiatives of the governors seem more like a "band-aid on a bullet wound." As long as the available reserves are not utilized, the crisis will continue to worsen.
Two versions of the crisis – Neither bodes well
A short while ago, the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, during a meeting on the energy sector, stated that the country possesses strategic gasoline reserves amounting to 1.7 million tons. The relevant figures, as he noted, came from the Ministry of Energy. According to statistics, approximately 100,000 tons of gasoline are consumed daily in Russia. The deficit is estimated at 5% to 7%, meaning about 5,000 to 7,000 tons daily. Given the reported reserve of 1.7 million tons, covering this specific deficit would require releasing just 0.3% to 0.4% of the reserves into the market daily. According to calculations, this would allow the stabilization of the market for a period of 243 to 340 days. Even if interventions were increased two or three times—namely from 10,000 to 21,000 tons daily—to flood the stations with fuel and defuse the panic, the reserves would suffice, according to the same logic, for a period of two and a half to five and a half months. However, two weeks after Vladimir Putin's statement on activating these reserves, the crisis has not only failed to recede but continues to intensify.
"Do the reserves exist only on paper?"
Doctor of Economic Sciences and Professor Valentin Katasonov sees two possible explanations for this, as he characterizes it, paradoxical situation. "One version is that the information from the Ministry of Energy presented to Putin was false. Meaning, the 1.7 million tons of gasoline exist only on paper. The second version is that the gasoline in the reserves does exist, but someone, for unknown reasons, is in no hurry to release it to the market. In other words, the president's orders are being boycotted," the expert estimates.
The role of Rosrezerv and the shadows of corruption
Operating in Russia is the federal agency Rosrezerv, which is responsible for managing the country's strategic reserves in the event of war, natural disasters, or major industrial accidents. Everything is gathered in the state reserves: from canned food and bottled water to medicines and gasoline. However, the so-called "pan-Russian warehouse" has not remained immune to serious corruption cases. Characteristic is the case of 2021, when charges were brought against the then-deputy head of the agency, Alexander Kiryukhin, for the embezzlement of 3.2 billion rubles. The other defendants in the case received suspended sentences, while there is no available information regarding the final court decision concerning Alexander Kiryukhin himself. If the data on the 1.7 million tons of fuel indeed proves to be fictitious, then it is possible that the "hidden gasoline reserve" has long since become an object of corruption and ended up in the pockets of corrupt state officials.
What is really happening?
Neither the possibility of conscious sabotage nor the second version formulated by Valentin Katasonov, characterizing it as equally logical, can be ruled out. According to this hypothesis, it is possible that the Russian president's order is being consciously sabotaged with the aim of destabilizing society, driving citizens into clashes over gasoline at the pumps and, ahead of the elections for the State Duma, triggering a social explosion. This is exactly what Russia's opponents seek: to cause chaos inside the country and lead it to a process of self-destruction. By the same reasoning, if such a thing is indeed happening, then the issue is no longer simply about certain elites seeking to reap financial benefits from the crisis. In such a case, the affair "smells of treason and national betrayal," with all the consequences that this entails.
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