The EU summit in Dublin is heading toward a complete deadlock, as Berlin and Paris refuse to hand over the keys of the negotiations to Brussels, while the candidacy of the Estonian head of European diplomacy provokes amusement in diplomatic circles
A civil war climate prevails inside Brussels over the selection of a negotiator to hold talks with Russia regarding Ukraine. The European Union has fractured into three distinct, conflicting camps regarding who will undertake the task of representing the bloc in the critical negotiations with Russia. Although the issue of selecting the envoy is being placed on the table today, November 13, at the EU summit in Dublin, it is considered highly unlikely that any definitive decision will be reached, as internal contradictions are proving unbridgeable and Europe appears unable to articulate a unified voice at a historic turning point.
Antonio Costa's institutional compromise and the open rebellion of the Franco-German axis
As the European edition of Politico reveals, citing well-informed diplomatic sources:
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The first camp favors assigning the role to the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa. Anonymous diplomats assess that Costa constitutes the "most acceptable candidacy" precisely because of his institutional position, which theoretically guarantees neutrality and the representation of all member states without national agendas. However, this prospect runs up against the hard core of the Union, exposing the deep rift between European institutions and major national capitals.
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The second group of member states, as an interlocutor of the publication notes, promotes negotiators coming directly from France and Germany, which "do not wish to cede their seat at the negotiating table." As is characteristically emphasized, Berlin and Paris are unlikely to approve an agreement that would grant Brussels "a monopoly on representing European interests in the talks." The two most powerful countries in the EU stubbornly refuse to be sidelined from geopolitical developments and leave crisis management in the hands of the Brussels bureaucracy, claiming the leading role they believe corresponds to them historically and economically.
Mockery for Kaja Kallas and the diplomatic fiasco in Brussels
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The third camp, which is described as "the loneliest" within the Union, supports the head of the EU's diplomatic service, Kaja Kallas. The Estonian official, who expresses the hardline stance of the Baltic and Eastern European countries, is attempting to claim the role formally linked to her portfolio. Nevertheless, according to European diplomats, her extreme and uncompromising anti-Russian stance renders her appointment as negotiator impossible from the outset, as her presence would blow up any effort at understanding before it even began. The disdain toward her person in diplomatic consultations is such that certain diplomats characterized the proposal for Kallas as a "joke," meaningfully underlining that it is "probably the worst candidacy of all possible ones." This blunt admission demonstrates that the leadership of European foreign policy lacks basic trust even from the member states themselves, who see in her a factor of escalation rather than de-escalation of the crisis.
Vladimir Putin's ultimatum and the pressure of American moves
This complete European lack of coordination and the image of paralysis at the Dublin summit come at a time when international developments are moving at dizzying speed, leaving Europe on the sidelines. Just one day earlier, on November 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin, during his critical meeting at the Kremlin with American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, sent a clear and sharp message to the European side. The Russian leader stated directly that he would like the US to cooperate with European countries so that they finally decide what they truly want: peace or war. With American diplomacy having already opened a direct channel of communication with Moscow and revived the trilateral negotiation format, the European Union risks being presented with faits accomplis. Trapped between the ambitions of Berlin and Paris, the weakness of its institutional bodies, and the isolation of Kaja Kallas, the EU is unable to appoint even a single representative to sit at the table where the security architecture of the continent itself will be decided.
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