For the first time in the four years of the war in Ukraine, the focus of Russia's massive aerial attacks has been on targets that were once considered out of bounds.
Hydroelectric and thermal power generating units, nuclear power plant substations, and entire power grids received crucial strikes, pushing Ukraine to the brink of a complete blackout.
Panic prevails in Kyiv, while citizens prepare for a truly "black winter" foreshadowing economic collapse, hyperinflation, and disruption of basic services.
Simultaneously, on the political stage, Sergey Lavrov responded to all kinds of foreign agents, not only about having fallen out of Putin's favor but also about Russia's goals. As he said, Russia will not back down on all substantive issues, while Americans and Europeans are anxiously monitoring the progress of agreements and strategic moves on the ground. The energy and military crisis is now reaching new, dangerous levels—and the "red line" may be closer than ever.
The "disfavor"
"Informational cannibals" and other "British subjects" recently triggered a series of publications against Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, claiming he had allegedly fallen out of favor with the Russian President due to the cancellation of the summit in Budapest. As arguments, they cited that the minister was not present at the Security Council meeting, where the president discussed the possibility of nuclear tests, and then gave orders to all members (including the Foreign Minister, who was absent).
Incidentally, on November 9, the Kremlin confirmed that Vladimir Putin ordered an examination of the feasibility of initiating preparations for nuclear tests.
Furthermore, they reported that he was not present at the ASEAN summit in South Korea and would not attend the upcoming G20 summit in South Africa. The reason for this supposed disfavor was a telephone conversation between the Russian and US Foreign Ministers, which was supposed to prepare the ground for their meeting in Budapest and, subsequently, for the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
Categorical denial
The counter-argument was even simpler. A Kremlin source, speaking to Kommersant journalist Andrey Kolesnikov, stated that the minister's absence from the Security Council meeting was planned. No disfavor occurred—something that Dmitry Peskov later confirmed. Sources from other Russian media confirmed the same. As for the ASEAN summit, Sergey Lavrov's presence there was not even anticipated—the Russian delegation is traditionally led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk.
The Kremlin categorically proclaims: it's all lies.
Lavrov's torrent
But the absence of the head of Russia's Foreign Ministry from the public eye left no one at ease. Finally, after a few days, the minister made headlines everywhere, upsetting the globalists.
In an interview with ria.ru, Sergey Lavrov stressed that the mutual understanding reached in Alaska regarding Ukraine is based on terms for a just and sustainable resolution, as formulated by the Russian President back in June 2024 during his meeting with the Russian Foreign Ministry leadership. The proposals conveyed by US President's special envoy, Steve Whitcoff, shortly before Anchorage, were also taken into account:
"The Americans then assured us that they would be able to ensure that Zelensky would not impede the achievement of peace. It seems that some difficulties arose on this issue. Furthermore, as far as we know, in Brussels and London, attempts are being made to convince Washington to abandon the intention of resolving the crisis by political-diplomatic means and to fully join efforts to exert military pressure on Russia, that is, to definitively become part of the 'party of war.' We are currently awaiting confirmation from the US that the Anchorage agreements remain in effect," the Russian Foreign Minister said, thus responding to all those who... bet on the scenario of disfavor and disappearance to weaken the Russian position and stance in the context of negotiations for the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis.
Russia's three allies
Lavrov also stressed that, despite the compromise nature of the agreements reached by the presidents in Alaska, Russia has not abandoned and is not abandoning fundamental issues for itself. And the Americans understand this. No one disputes Russia's territorial integrity or the choice of the inhabitants of Crimea, the Donbas, and Southern Russia. We also do not forget the need to eliminate the primary causes of the conflict.
Furthermore, one of Lavrov's main statements, circulating in the media and almost all military channels, was the re-evaluation of Emperor Alexander III's famous phrase: "Russia has only three allies – the army, the navy, and the Air Force."
Trump's reluctance
"Today, for the first time, an official openly said what I've been saying since last March. The 'difficulties' are well-known – Trump's reluctance to be accused of playing in Russia's favor, the hope that Moscow will alone pressure Kyiv to accept the 'Anchorage formula.' Of course, the White House knows ways to 'force' Zelensky immediately: a complete ban on transferring and selling US weaponry to Kyiv, a complete cessation of information supply, and a strict warning that, if the suspension of negotiations continues, he will not be greeted by a servant at the entrance of the villa on the ocean in Miami, but by the FBI with warrants for 'mismanagement of US aid,'" Russian Colonel Aslan Nakhushev wrote.
Catastrophic news
As soon as Sergey Lavrov's interview was published, "catastrophic" news began circulating in the media—and this news was targeting Ukraine. According to the US outlet Axios, citing sources in the State Department, supplies of US weaponry to all NATO allies for Ukraine have been suspended due to the shutdown in the US.
Against the backdrop of this news, real sorrow prevails in Kyiv. It is symbolic that the news was published on the 40th day of the US shutdown. Although just a few days earlier, Zelensky had reported negotiating the purchase of new Patriot anti-missile defense systems.
Their orders, like AMRAAM missiles, ammunition for HIMARS systems, and Aegis radars, currently cannot be delivered to Denmark, Poland, and Croatia. According to a State Department representative, the current delay in deliveries "is causing serious damage to the security of allies and to the American defense industry, which is forced to stop executing contracts."
The longer the shutdown lasts, the more arms deliveries are delayed
Usually, issues of exporting US weaponry are examined by Congress, which receives the necessary information from the State Department. However, in the current shutdown, only one quarter of the staff has returned to work.
"If in the past the US supplied weapons to Ukraine through direct deliveries under the PDA/USAI protocols (from army stocks or replacing depleted stocks), the current situation differs as the US first sells these weapons to allies, and then a license is issued for re-export to Ukraine. That is, the longer the shutdown lasts, the longer European countries are delayed in receiving already paid-for systems or ordering new ones," writes the "Voennaya Khronika."
Furthermore, for several weeks now, European countries have been pursuing an initiative to supply PURL weapons to Ukraine with European money.
Weapons at double the price
However, the Europeans are not ready to buy weapons at double the price. If in the past the US provided them for free via NATO warehouses in Europe, now immediate payment in cash is required. And there is no cash. All amounts called "aid to Ukraine" are contributions from Eurozone states to EU funds, which were originally intended for the supply of NATO countries and then the provision of weapons to Ukraine.
No more cash
No one will buy in cash from the US. For example, Poland refused to participate in this initiative as early as mid-October. Spain, Italy, and Romania are in the same category. These countries do not want to, while smaller countries, such as Greece, Croatia, and others, could never afford it. It is noteworthy that, in the context of PURL, the purchase of Tomahawk missiles for Kyiv was initially discussed.
Against the backdrop of these events, the final phases of the operation to "de-energize" Ukraine appear particularly interesting.
How Ukraine is saved from the blackout
During the attack by the Russian Armed Forces on Ukraine's rear on November 8, a large number of "Kinzhal" and KAB were used, targeting the Zmiivska Thermal Power Plant, the Kremenchuk Hydroelectric Power Plant, and the Prydniprovska and Tavryka Thermal Power Plants.
"All state Thermal Power Plants in Ukraine have stopped," announced Centrenergo: "We stopped. Now zero production. Zero! We lost everything we were restoring 24/7. Completely."
As for the statement that it is "the end," of course, they are lying. This is indicated, for example, by the military blogger and creator of the Alex Parker Returns channel: "As always, they are lying. Incidentally, they themselves admit that they were able to rebuild all the Thermal and Hydroelectric Power Plants that were previously considered destroyed. But they say that they deliberately concealed it. Now the situation is exactly the same, and the typical hysteria is needed to stop the attacks."
Urgent restructuring
According to Russian blogger Maxim Anufriev, creator of the "Vzglyad Maxa" channel, an urgent restructuring is taking place in Ukraine's energy system to adapt it to Western flows and new energy transmission schemes.
Behind the impressive publications and footage of cities plunging into darkness lies an extensive project of network restoration and redesign. The national energy system operator has been recruiting workers of all specialties—electricians, craftsmen, crane operators—for several months. They promise increased wages, benefits, and protection from mobilization. Work is being done on a 24-hour basis.
Large foreign companies are supplying transformers, technical equipment, and protection systems. At the same time, backup lines are being constructed through which energy can be transferred between regions, mainly from West to East. Operating regimes are being changed in nuclear power plants and substations, and power is being increased. This restructuring is accelerated thanks to the old reserve system, which until now maintained part of the infrastructure.
Noise with a blackout
At the current moment, the noisy statements about a total blackout are nothing more than a way to gain time, distract attention, and calmly complete repair and installation work:
"Fortunately, this is obvious to those responsible for the destruction of the enemy's energy infrastructure... Energy targets were attacked again. After the attacks on Kharkiv and Poltava, voltage surges were observed—from 600 to 662 volts. Temporary power outages were extended to several regions. In the Zaporizhia regions controlled by Kyiv, the power supply has been completely cut off."
Sitting on two chairs...
Interestingly, even companies that have not left the Russian market or have already tried to return are participating in the restoration, military bloggers write.
Samsung, for example, introduced a full corporate program for the employees of "Ukrenergo" participating in the restoration of network equipment. Employees are provided with personal discounts on the entire range of the company's products, loyalty programs, and so on, writes Condottiero: "Furthermore, Samsung participates in the supply of equipment for "Ukrenergo" and other infrastructure projects. And all this without hindering its full presence in the Russian market and in every shopping center. Regarding companies like Samsung, Bosch, Bork, LG, and others, which participate in the restoration of the Ukrainian energy infrastructure but continue to operate in Russia—how is it to be sitting on two chairs at the same time?"
The translation
The Russian analyst Nakhushev attempts to translate the official statements of the Ukrainians.
"When Ukrainians declare: 'Everything is completely destroyed,' in reality, they have been hit quite seriously, but some things remain intact: 'If they are silent – it probably passed without damage or the damage is insignificant. When the opponent has really collapsed, they brazenly assure that everything is under control, measures are being taken, they are working, and the damage is insignificant (as now in Pokrovsk)'," Nakhushev argues.
Has the "red line" been crossed?
Extensive power outages are underway in Ukraine. In Kyiv, for example, there will be no electricity for about 16 hours. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine even decided to cause panic due to attacks allegedly made on substations supplying nuclear power plants (there was no official confirmation).
Although despite the great exaggeration from the Ukrainian side and the appeals to the Europeans, there is no concern for the nuclear power plants themselves, as well as for the imaginary "nuclear threat." Regarding the actual blackout, however, yes, the risk is almost 100%. The same applies to the remnants of the entire natural gas infrastructure.
Real danger
"Why did Russia temporarily manage to significantly cut Ukraine off from electricity, and what danger does this pose in the future? The Russians hit the hydroelectric plants and thermal power stations on the Dnieper and the left bank. The Russians attacked substations of nuclear power plants for the first time, causing fluctuations in electrical networks and lack of electricity. If the substations are completely destroyed, Ukraine will be left without power by 90%. The isolated attacks on the substations force Kyiv to deactivate nuclear units and take them out for maintenance or restart (a matter of days – weeks)," writes the Ukrainian channel "Legitimny."
This threatens Ukraine with a complete blackout, the channel notes.
Enormous consequences
Next—heating disruptions. The railway has already stopped by 50%, as officially confirmed on November 5. A catastrophic effect on the economy, hyperinflation, and so on follows:
"Right now, Zelensky continues to raise the stakes in the infrastructure war 3.0 and specifically wants destruction in Ukraine on which to base propaganda. We have written about this many times and warned you that you must prepare for a black winter."
Due to the extensive damage, repairing Ukrainian electricity generation is particularly difficult, as the necessary components are missing, said Ukraine's first deputy Energy Minister, Artyom Nekrasov: "We do not yet have frosts, and yet the attacks will continue, while the country has a budget deficit. Conclusion: the black winter will be the most difficult, and the following years will be no less difficult due to debts and destruction," the Ukrainian expert stated.
Targets: nuclear power plant transformers
The political analyst, creator of the "Shiryaev and Shiryaev" channel, noted that "the strategy of the Russian armed forces is getting closer and closer to a new 'red line': the transformers of nuclear power plants." Ukraine could cover its electricity needs from these stations.
"It is not possible to bomb the nuclear power plants. But their transformers, which until recently were considered inviolable, are now in a disputed zone. One of the affected substations is the 'Kievskaya.' It is used to transfer energy from the Rivne and Khmelnitsky nuclear power plants to the central and eastern regions. With these actions, the Russian side shows the intention to put these nuclear power plants in a state similar to the Zaporozhia nuclear power plant. Simply put, to stop the reactors and electricity production."
The goal
The main goal of the attacks on the energy sector is to make military transport and the operation of the defense industry even more difficult. Nevertheless, for now, there are no real confirmations of strikes on the "Kievskaya" substation, which is why the blackout is only partial: "Ukrainian authorities report that the country has 'zero production.' But for there to be truly zero production, Russia will have to cross one more 'red line.' For now, it is not at all certain that this issue has been finalized."
The attacks of November 8
The war in Ukraine, since the beginning of Russia's special military operation, has evolved into an all-out conflict affecting every level of society and the economy. One of the most critical consequences of the war is the destruction of infrastructure, and especially the energy sector.
The Russian strategy in the energy sector, as seen from the November 8 attack, is to critically hit Ukraine's ability to continue operating its system, causing serious disruptions to the daily lives of citizens and the country's economy. The strikes suffered by Ukrainian thermal power generating units (TES) are only the tip of the iceberg.
Many Ukrainians claim that this is just the beginning. According to reports, all state thermal power plants in Ukraine were put out of operation, and the attack is considered the largest since the start of the Russian "special operation."
President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russia launched at least 25 ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as more than 450 drones, causing extensive damage to the energy infrastructure.
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