US counter-intelligence analysts are portraying Xi Jinping as a paranoid leader who has imposed a regime of fear even within his inner circle. As revealed by the New York Times, throughout his leadership, he has carried out massive purges and surprised many with the sudden removal of his top general. Since taking the reins of the world's most populous superpower nearly 14 years ago, Xi Jinping has swept through the ranks of the Chinese Communist Party, removing government officials, security chiefs, and the children of the "red aristocracy." Even by these standards, his latest purge is considered stunning.
Shock over the 'purged' general
The announcement by the Chinese Ministry of Defence on 24 January that the country's top military leader, Zhang Youxia, and his associate, Liu Zhenli, are being investigated for "serious violations" sent shockwaves through officials and analysts in Washington. General Zhang is a war veteran with a long history of loyalty to Xi Jinping. US officials are now attempting to decipher Beijing's political elite to understand why Xi Jinping took such a dramatic step. They point out that it is critical for the US government to understand the Chinese leader's mental state, as his policies—much like those of Donald Trump—affect everything from the global economy to the operations of one of the world's most powerful militaries.
Real or imagined threat?
However, current and former US officials state that no clear cause has been identified behind Xi Jinping's recent actions. The Chinese leader may be acting out of a paranoid perception, defending himself against a real political threat, or sincerely trying to tackle high-level corruption within the People’s Liberation Army. US counter-intelligence analyses have concluded for years that Xi Jinping exhibits an extreme level of paranoid behavior. Since the beginning of his leadership in 2012, Xi, now 72, has consolidated his power through purges and anti-corruption campaigns, making him the most powerful Chinese leader in decades.
Only one remains
To date, he has removed all but one of the six generals he appointed to the Central Military Commission in 2022. As chairman of the commission, Xi controls the People’s Liberation Army, and the purges have created a leadership vacuum at the top of the world's largest military. Of the 30 generals and admirals who had taken command of operational theaters or special missions at the start of 2023, nearly all have been removed or disappeared, according to a New York Times analysis. Marcel Dirsus, a German political scientist, notes that authoritarian leaders view those in their inner circle—rather than protesters or dissidents—as the greatest threat to their power. "As an autocrat, you have to be paranoid. Everyone around you is lying constantly. You don't know who is truly loyal and who is deceiving you," he stated.
Purges as a systemic norm
The purging of military commanders is common in such systems. "Being a general in an authoritarian regime is a prestigious but dangerous position," says Dirsus. If a general is deemed effective and liked by subordinates, they can create an alternative power center, threatening the leader. The American analysis of Xi Jinping’s paranoid nature raises questions about whether his purges are logical. "Paranoid behavior is a feature of his leadership, not a bug," says John Culver, a former CIA analyst on China. "He would not have lasted this long or this strongly if he had not removed politically powerful elders and institutions."
The CIA profile
The CIA compiles psychological profiles of foreign leaders, and analysts have spent years trying to understand Xi, the son of a "princeling" politician who was identified in 2007 as a potential leader of China. Within weeks of taking power in 2012, he launched an anti-corruption campaign that rocked the entire party. Recently, reports suggested that some Chinese officers had been informed that General Zhang was a US spy who had leaked nuclear secrets, a crime that would be considered among the most treasonous for a Chinese official. However, US officials stated they have no evidence that General Zhang was a US agent or that he handed over nuclear information. On 25 January, the official military newspaper Liberation Army Daily described the punishment of Zhang and Liu as a "great achievement" in the fight against corruption, emphasizing that all officials and soldiers must support the Central Committee's decision, with "Comrade Xi Jinping at the center of thought, politics, and action."
Discipline and control
Analysts argue that Xi's long-running anti-corruption campaign aims to force the 100 million party members to become more disciplined and to destroy political rivals and factions. The purges of top military commanders have drawn particular attention and raise questions about the extent of corruption, as well as differences in the approach to Taiwan between Xi and his top generals. According to Yun Sun, an analyst at the Stimson Center, the significance of Xi's actions may relate to an intention to prevent any challenges to his power before the next party congress in 2027. The removal of Zhang may be an attempt to neutralize a potentially influential critic. "If the general disagreed with Xi 'on this most important political issue,' then Zhang becomes extremely dangerous," Sun notes.
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