Christmas Day 2025 found NATO shocked by a strategically calculated move by Russia. The Russian military, using Tu-95MS bombers, the famous "Bears" identified with Soviet heritage and the Cold War era, flew over the North Sea and approached United Kingdom airspace. The aircraft did not violate NATO airspace, but their presence was enough to trigger an immediate reaction from the North Atlantic Alliance's armed forces. This move by Russia, which appears "provocative" from the West's perspective, actually has a clear strategic goal: to remind NATO that Russia is always present, always ready to demonstrate its strategic power, and to force the West to spend resources and energy to maintain its own readiness. Russia, for its part, speaks of a "routine flight" over international waters.
The "war without war" strategy
Russia, and personally its president Vladimir Putin, does not seek war with NATO. This is clear. This strategy is a calculated psychological war that exhausts the opponent's resources without requiring an actual clash. The mission of the Tu-95MS is only the tip of the iceberg. These flights are not aimed at violating NATO borders, but at reminding the Alliance of the Russian presence and forcing the North Atlantic Treaty to spend resources on interception, monitoring, and preparation, the British newspaper Mirror reports. This strategy, while not yielding immediate military results, effectively imposes costs on NATO countries.
When the Russians scramble their bombers, they do not expect to cause an immediate conflict or intimidate NATO states. Instead, it is a message underlining Russia's presence in the region, a reminder that Moscow remains a strategic powerthat chooses when and how to act without provoking a full-scale conflict.
The asymmetric move
This form of cost strategy is asymmetric. Although Russia spends fuel and flight hours on its aircraft, the cost for NATO is much higher. The Alliance must maintain its air forces on standby 24 hours a day, carry out interceptions, and coordinate its response. This process entails huge expenditures, from fuel to human resources and equipment—all without any real challenge from the Russian side. Russia needs to do nothing more than trigger these reactions to demonstrate its power.
The psychological dimension is the most important element of this strategy. Putin knows well that NATO's reactions, especially when they occur at critical moments like Christmas, are not just technical procedures. They are signs of weakness for NATO, which is forced to react to a move that is not a threat. The message is clear: "Your pilots are working, while we are here to remind you that Russia is always ready." This is a strategic tool to create doubt and uncertainty within NATO without the need for actual military confrontation.
Forcing NATO to react
This strategy is nothing new. Russia, through these flights, forces NATO to dedicate resources and manpower to a state of constant readiness, while remaining steady and informed. Russia does not need to start a war because the cost for NATO is already enormous. As the Alliance tries to maintain its strength in a state of readiness and deterrence, its resources are depleted without an immediate result from the Russian side.
This "war without war" has the great advantage of being endless. Although the Russian bombers return to their base without causing damage or violating airspace, NATO cannot ignore the threat and must cope with the consequences. This strategy continues in a cycle, with Russia imposing costs and NATO spending resources that could be used elsewhere.
"We will not allow you to take your security for granted"
This move is not only a strategy to weaken NATO but also to recognize Russian power in the region. Putin knows that Russia's opponents tend to overestimate threats and overreact. Conversely, Russia maintains its composure and proves that it is always ready to defend its interests without leading the world into an open war. Russia sends a clear message: "We will not allow you to take your security for granted. Russia is here and is always alert." This strategy allows the country to achieve its strategic results without needing to proceed with violent military actions. Imposing costs is a form of peaceful but effective superiority that maintains Russia at a strategic advantage without provoking war.
Demonstration of power
These aerial displays of strength are not merely provocations. Instead, they are a clever strategy that utilizes the opponent's psychology and the sense of urgency to react. Russia, by provoking these responses from NATO, exploits the situation to its advantage, imposing costs and maintaining its readiness without engaging in real military conflict. This "war without war" is the new form of strategic power on the global political stage, and Russia exploits it with absolute effectiveness.
The Bear with a range of 15,000 kilometers
The Tu-95MS, also known as the "Bear," is one of the most recognizable and characteristic aircraft of the Russian Military, with a history dating back to the Cold War. Despite the fact that the aircraft is now over 70 years old, it remains in service due to its unique features and capabilities that make it highly effective for Russia's strategic needs. The Tu-95MS is a long-range bomber capable of traveling vast distances without needing to refuel.
With a range of approximately 15,000 kilometers, the aircraft can perform missions that pass over large maritime areas, such as the North Sea, and reach strategic targets near or even inside NATO airspace. This capability allows it to conduct "provocative" or "power demonstration" flights without essentially violating NATO borders and without provoking an immediate military conflict. This range makes it a useful tool within the framework of Russia's strategy to impose costs on the West, forcing NATO to react without engaging in open conflict.
Nuclear strike weapon
The greatest "strength" of the Tu-95MS lies in its ability to carry nuclear cruise missiles. This bomber can carry the Kh-55 system or the upgraded Kh-101, missiles with a range of 3,000–5,000 kilometers, which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This ability to carry nuclear weapons makes the Tu-95MS a critical element of Russia's strategic deterrence. However, its presence over areas near the North Sea, with its warning flight, also serves as a reminder of Russia's nuclear capability and its strategy in the region.
Although the Tu-95MS is equipped with state-of-the-art electronic navigation systems and weapons, it remains an aircraft with the characteristics of the 1940s. Its large combat radius makes it extremely noisy and easily detectable by NATO's radars and tracking systems. This, however, is not a disadvantage for Russia, as the purpose of these flights is not to cause surprise, but to impose their presence.
Christmas terror
These flights, which usually take place at critical times such as Christmas or the New Year holidays, are indicative of the Russian Military's strategy to impose costs without provoking real conflict. The Tu-95MS, as part of this strategy, is Russia's "tool" to force NATO to remain on alert and spend resources on intercepting aircraft that have no intention of violating aerial borders. The presence of these aircraft in the North Sea region or in the air near northern Scotland serves as a constant reminder of Russia's strategic power, while simultaneously reinforcing the sense of uncertainty and vigilant control of the region by the Russian side.
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