Citigroup predicts significant debt reduction - Binding bids for Dunkerque expected by late February
The listing of Metlen shares on the London Stock Exchange has, for the second time, opened a channel of cooperation with the largest listed infrastructure fund in the United Kingdom, Greencoat UK Wind Plc, which boasts a market capitalization of £2.1 billion. Greencoat’s subsidiary, Schroders Greencoat LLP, acquired seven solar projects from the Greek company, with a total capacity of 283 MW located in England and Scotland. Of these, 140 MW are operational, while the remaining 143 MW are expected to enter commercial operation in the second quarter of 2026.
Multiple benefits
The benefits of the deal are manifold for Metlen: on one hand, it consolidates its partnership with Greencoat—following the 2024 acquisition of a 110 MWp solar portfolio—and on the other, ahead of its bid for the French aluminum plant Dunkerque, it secures additional liquidity following a recent international bond issuance. Greencoat manages 40 renewable projects and is estimated to have distributed over €1 billion to its shareholders since 2017 through the steady revenue streams of its portfolio.
Calculating the revenue
Although the two parties did not disclose the price, Morgan Stanley estimates the transaction proceeds at €200–€270 million, based on historical valuation multiples per MW for similar Renewable Energy Sources projects. Conversely, Citigroup, in its report, set a price target of €52 for Metlen, estimating that with the proceeds from the deal in Chile (588 MW) amounting to $900 million, alongside the proceeds from the UK deal, Metlen will be capable of significantly reducing its net debt, which stood at €3 billion in the first half of 2025, up from €2 billion in 2023. The American bank believes that the execution of the RES sales plan, investment in alumina and gallium, along with aluminum production (and pilot metal recovery production from residues), will be the catalysts for achieving the guidance of €2 billion EBITDA, while high aluminum prices could provide further upside. Specifically, for 2026, Citigroup estimates Metlen's sales at €7.7 billion and pre-tax profits at €912.4 million, compared to €693 million in 2025. Its stock is trading at 7.6x the EV/EBITDA ratio, while the dividend yield will reach 4.3%.
Binding bids for Dunkerque at the end of February
By late February, however, binding offers are expected for the Dunkerque aluminum unit. According to reports, the advisor for the American firm American Industrial Partners (AIP), Goldman Sachs, will review bids from Metlen, the Japanese giant Sumitomo, the Emirates-based aluminum group EGA, ALBA (Bahrain), Rio Tinto, and Glencore. Subsequently, Goldman Sachs will select the preferred investor to begin negotiations. According to French media, Rio Tinto, due to its previous involvement in Dunkerque, is now considered unwelcome by the workers' union. Based on the same sources, the French investment bank Bpifrance could acquire a 5–6% stake alongside the new owner. Given the size of the other contenders (Sumitomo, Rio Tinto, EGA), Metlen’s venture is challenging, as the price is estimated to range between €1.2–€1.8 billion, while other investment banks estimate the tag at €1.5 billion. For the Greek company, however, the acquisition of Dunkerque is critical for its internationalization, potentially doubling operating profits in aluminum to €600 million and adding 285,000 tons of low-emission aluminum production.
Dimitris Pafilas
dpafilas@yahoo.com
www.bankingnews.gr
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