Despite short-term challenges, Metlen maintains a stable financial foundation and predictable earnings, factors that bolster confidence in its ability to fully resume project execution
Fitch Ratings-Barcelona-10 February 2026: Metlen Energy & Metals Single Member S.A.’s (BB+/Stable) profit warning released last Friday will result in 2025 leverage credit metrics higher than Fitch Ratings’ current rating sensitivities for the ‘BB+’ rating, Fitch says. This demonstrates execution risk in the company’s project pipeline, putting pressure on the current ratings. However, the company has reaffirmed its medium-term EBITDA guidance and highlighted the continued robust performance of its core activities in 2025.
Metlen has recently announced that its 2025 EBITDA will be around 25% below prior guidance, reflecting unanticipated cost overruns and schedule delays in its Power Projects (MPP) business, as well as the later-than-expected closing of certain asset rotation transactions in its renewables segment (with gains included in EBITDA).
Fitch will closely monitor the company’s ability to restore execution discipline in project delivery, complete the remaining asset-rotation transactions, and demonstrate more predictable earnings generation. Sustained cost overruns, further delays or aggressive debt-funded M&A could reduce visibility over medium-term deleverage, likely triggering a negative rating action. In contrast, successful remediation and continued strong performance of core businesses would support the current rating and Outlook.
Following the profit warning, we now estimate 2025 EBITDA at around EUR750 million, 25% below prior guidance of around EUR1 billion. In addition, we estimate Fitch-adjusted net debt (excluding international build-operate-transfer project financing) of around EUR2.7 billion at end-2025 (end-2024: EUR2.1 billion). This results in our updated estimate of Fitch-adjusted 2025 EBITDA net leverage of around 3.6x, up from our prior estimate of 2.1x and materially above the negative sensitivity of 2.0x in 2025. However, we still expect EBITDA net leverage to be only slightly above 2.0x (the negative sensitivity) from 2026, as remedial actions should lead to more predictable earnings and cash flow.
The company reported liquidity of more than EUR4 billion at end-2025, indicating balance-sheet resilience and financial flexibility. Excluding MPP-related losses, underlying profitability would have been broadly in line with the prior EBITDA guidance of around EUR1 billion, supporting the view that the earnings weakness is largely project-specific rather than structural.
The EBITDA shortfall is primarily attributable to additional cost overruns identified during Q4 and the full-year closing process at MPP, which has already experienced challenges at specific projects, notably the Protos waste plant in the UK. These issues underscore execution and governance risks associated with complex project delivery within the company’s renewables, storage and energy transition activities.
The management indicated that affected projects are set to be completed within revised budgets and timelines and that additional operational controls and enhanced oversight have been implemented, including the full integration of MPP into the broader renewable segment. Fitch will monitor the pace of improvement in project execution.
A secondary driver of the weaker 2025 EBITDA is the timing of the closing of three planned asset rotation transactions in the UK, Spain and Australia, expected to close by end-2025. The UK transaction closed in early February 2026, while the remaining transactions are set to close later in 2026. Fitch generally views asset rotation as supportive of Metlen’s business model and liquidity profile, but delays increase near-term earnings volatility and highlight execution risk around transaction timing.
Metlen reaffirmed its medium-term EBITDA target of EUR1.9 billion–2.1 billion, supported by organic growth and potential M&A in Western Europe.
Metlen has recently announced that its 2025 EBITDA will be around 25% below prior guidance, reflecting unanticipated cost overruns and schedule delays in its Power Projects (MPP) business, as well as the later-than-expected closing of certain asset rotation transactions in its renewables segment (with gains included in EBITDA).
Fitch will closely monitor the company’s ability to restore execution discipline in project delivery, complete the remaining asset-rotation transactions, and demonstrate more predictable earnings generation. Sustained cost overruns, further delays or aggressive debt-funded M&A could reduce visibility over medium-term deleverage, likely triggering a negative rating action. In contrast, successful remediation and continued strong performance of core businesses would support the current rating and Outlook.
Following the profit warning, we now estimate 2025 EBITDA at around EUR750 million, 25% below prior guidance of around EUR1 billion. In addition, we estimate Fitch-adjusted net debt (excluding international build-operate-transfer project financing) of around EUR2.7 billion at end-2025 (end-2024: EUR2.1 billion). This results in our updated estimate of Fitch-adjusted 2025 EBITDA net leverage of around 3.6x, up from our prior estimate of 2.1x and materially above the negative sensitivity of 2.0x in 2025. However, we still expect EBITDA net leverage to be only slightly above 2.0x (the negative sensitivity) from 2026, as remedial actions should lead to more predictable earnings and cash flow.
The company reported liquidity of more than EUR4 billion at end-2025, indicating balance-sheet resilience and financial flexibility. Excluding MPP-related losses, underlying profitability would have been broadly in line with the prior EBITDA guidance of around EUR1 billion, supporting the view that the earnings weakness is largely project-specific rather than structural.
The EBITDA shortfall is primarily attributable to additional cost overruns identified during Q4 and the full-year closing process at MPP, which has already experienced challenges at specific projects, notably the Protos waste plant in the UK. These issues underscore execution and governance risks associated with complex project delivery within the company’s renewables, storage and energy transition activities.
The management indicated that affected projects are set to be completed within revised budgets and timelines and that additional operational controls and enhanced oversight have been implemented, including the full integration of MPP into the broader renewable segment. Fitch will monitor the pace of improvement in project execution.
A secondary driver of the weaker 2025 EBITDA is the timing of the closing of three planned asset rotation transactions in the UK, Spain and Australia, expected to close by end-2025. The UK transaction closed in early February 2026, while the remaining transactions are set to close later in 2026. Fitch generally views asset rotation as supportive of Metlen’s business model and liquidity profile, but delays increase near-term earnings volatility and highlight execution risk around transaction timing.
Metlen reaffirmed its medium-term EBITDA target of EUR1.9 billion–2.1 billion, supported by organic growth and potential M&A in Western Europe.
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